On Thursday, CBS Sports published its annual preseason ranking of the top 30 prospects in this summer’s MLB draft. As is tradition, the list was revealed to coincide with the start of the college baseball season. Our rankings are formed through a multi-prong approach that includes conversations with industry insiders; firsthand analysis; and historical research into draft trends. (Note that we will publish an updated list right ahead of the draft.)
MLB’s draft isn’t as well-publicized as those orchestrated by the other top American male sports leagues. As such, we decided it would be helpful to put together a primer answering some of the biggest questions you might have about this class as we enter into another draft cycle, like who is the favorite to be selected with the No. 1 pick, and who are the biggest snubs from our list.
With that in mind, let’s get to it.
1. Who’s No. 1?
When CBS Sports polled scouts and other front-office types during the making of our rankings, LSU outfielder Dylan Crews stood out as the industry’s preferred choice for the No. 1 pick. One veteran scout even said that Crews is the most obvious No. 1 pick entering a draft cycle since Bryce Harper.
If Crews were to tumble down the board for some reason, be it injury, an unexpectedly bad showing this spring, or even the Pittsburgh Pirates’ preference for another player, who might go No. 1 in that instance?
Our best guess is one of three players. Either Tennessee righty Chase Dollander, who has electric stuff but needs to add to his track record; Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford, who actually outhit Crews last season and might stick in center field; or Indiana prep outfielder Max Clark, who at maturation could feature five above-average tools, including the speed to play center.
It should be noted that a lot can change over the course of a spring. Just remembered that at this time last year, we had Jackson Holliday, the eventual No. 1 pick in the draft, ranked 41st. Whoopsie.
2. Class’s strength? Weakness?
The biggest strength of this class appears to be top-notch outfielders. Four of our top six overall play on the grass: the aforementioned Crews, Langford, and Clark, as well as North Carolina prep outfielder Walker Jenkins.
As for weakness, it’s probably surefire pitching. Even the top arms on our list, like Dollander and Florida right-hander Hurston Waldrep, have some questions to answer over the course of the spring. Otherwise, it looks like a fairly ho-hum class for teams seeking first-round pitching help.
3. Are there any legacy players?
Jackson Holliday. Jack Leiter. Druw Jones. Let’s face it, the last two drafts have been brimming with players whose fathers enjoyed notable big-league careers. And that’s not to even mention the players whose brothers or other relatives made it to The Show.
You might wonder, is this year’s draft certain to be another family affair? Nah. Only two players who ranked in our top 30 had big-league fathers: prep shortstop Jacob Wilson’s dad Jack was also a smooth-fielding shortstop with parts of 12 MLB seasons under his belt, while Texas right-hander Tanner Witt’s father, Kevin, was a slugging first baseman who enjoyed a few cameos.
If you’re looking for the equivalent of a Holliday, a Leiter, or a Jones in this year’s draft class, you’re out of luck.
4. Who are the biggest snubs?
As part of our pre-draft coverage, we highlighted five players who could be described as “snubs.” That is, they did not make it into our top 30. Those players were Brock Wilken, a powerful third baseman at Wake Forest; Chase Davis, an outfielder at Arizona; Travis Sykora, a flamethrowing Texas prep right-hander; Yohandy Morales, a third baseman at Miami; and Maui Ahuna, a shortstop who transferred from Kansas to Tennessee last summer.
You can read more about why those players were excluded by clicking here.
5. Who are the potential risers?
On the flip side, we also produced a list of five players we think could improve their stock between now and July. Those players were Colton Ledbetter, an outfielder who transferred to Mississippi State; Wyatt Crowell, a small lefty at Florida State hoping to make the switch from relief to starting; Michael Carico, a Davidson catcher with an unblemished statistical track record; Garret Forrester, an Oregon State first baseman who needs to show more power; and Southern Miss outfielder Matthew Etzel, whose size, speed, and strength made him a dominant force the last two years on the Texas JuCo circuit.
You can read about why those players could be on the rise by clicking here.