Reds president Nick Krall and his MLB counterparts will convene at the general managers meetings this week in Las Vegas.
Nick Krall faces a challenging offseason building a roster given the salary constraints he has to work with.
LAS VEGAS – For anyone who wasn’t sure whether the Cincinnati Reds’ offseason had begun when they signed right-hander Keegan Thompson to that one-year free agent deal last week, behold this week’s general managers meetings in Las Vegas for the official kick-the-tires start of MLB’s winter shopping season.
The only certainty regarding the Reds at the outset is that nobody’s going to find them this week at the high-rollers tables (think the usual quarter-slot and video-poker machines) – no matter how much their rarity of a playoff appearance last month might seem to demand more.
With that in mind these are five storylines to watch for Reds dreamers and realists alike:
How far can Nick Krall stretch the nickels-and-dimes allowance Bob Castellini gave him?
This one’s for the realists.
Upon making one of the first big-league signings of the free agent season last week ($1.3 million for Thompson), team president Nick Krall said his payroll budget for 2026 “will be around the same” as 2025.
Depending on whether that means last season’s opening payroll or the final tally, that likely means something between $115 million and $120 million.
And that means $20 million to maybe $25 of space to work with after projecting arbitration raises and taking into account the final $15 million season of Jeimer Candelario’s dead money.
Yikes. For a team that had 10 players file for free agency, including its playoff closer (Emilio Pagán) and cleanup hitter (Austin Hays), that’s a tall order for a short pile of cash.
Talk about a betrayal of all those promises from the top of Bob Castellini’s organization about trying to win after rebuilding a core built on high-ceiling young players.
“You never hear me bitch about what our payroll is,” manager Terry Francona said toward the end of his first season at the helm. “My responsibility is seeing how good we get our players. Sometimes we do it better than others.
“But I’m probably at an age where doing it in a place that I prefer is maybe more meaningful than having a super-high payroll.”
Good thing he likes Cincinnati. He might have to take that relationship to another level to figure out the path to October again at this rate.
Decision time for Kyle Schwarber, other MLB free agents
This one’s for the dreamers.
The 13 free agents who received qualifying offers from their clubs have until Nov. 18 to accept or decline the $22.025 million, one-year QOs.
Those who decline become free agents subject to draft-pick compensation provided by the the teams signing them.
If you’re a Reds dreamer, this means watching for Middletown slugger Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies to decline the offer, then fail to come to terms with the Phillies on a new deal to return, then signing a big-ticket, multiyear deal with the Reds (who not only would have to fork over the dough but also get over their reluctance to give up a draft pick to do it).
Did somebody say something about dreaming?
One other name among those 13 free agents with QOs is Trent Grisham, the lefty-hitting two-time Gold Glove center fielder with a breakout power season in 2025, whose price tag isn’t expected to be as high as Schwarber’s.
If those aren’t the two top fits for the Reds in this free agent class, they’re two of the top three or four.
One can dream, right?
‘I won a major award’ season for one Cincinnati Red?
MLB on Tuesday announces the league manager of the year winners, and Francona is one of three National League finalists this time around.
The other finalists are Philadelphia’s Rob Thompson and Milwaukee’s Pat Murphy, who might be the favorite to win a second consecutive award.
Francona, who won the award three times with Cleveland, guided the Reds to their first playoff appearance 2020 (first since 2013 in a full season), clinching on the final day of the season
Can Krall get creative enough in trades to avoid such Reds tariffs on 2026 imports?
Trades were a key part of the Reds offseason last winter, when they acquired starter Brady Singer, catcher Jose Trevino and Gavin Lux in trades for, respectively, Jonathan India, Fernando Cruz and a minor-leaguer plus competitive-balance draft pick.
The India trade is instructive this time around for the fact it was a deal two seasons in coming as the Reds traded from a relative surplus of infielders. This winter they appear to have a surplus of starting pitching, including Singer, who is projected to make north of $10 million after a final winter of arbitration eligibility. Opening Day starter Hunter Greene, on a team-friendly multiyear contract, is the most valuable potential trade chip in the rotation.
A few days after the Reds’ playoff elimination, Krall did not rule out trading from that group but cautioned against expecting such a move because of the value of pitching depth, the challenge of backfilling and the likelihood that such a trade would not net enough high-end, big-league return to justify the cost for a win-now team.
And Francona told some of his old Boston media pals on a podcast a few days ago that he doesn’t expect Greene to be traded. “We’ve got to keep Hunter on the mound,” he said, also pointing out the challenge of trying to backfill for such a trade.
The 9th degree: Emilio Pagán
Without the big bucks (or even medium bucks) coming from ownership to take a bold step forward from the 2025 playoff cameo, the effort to reunite with free-agent closer Emilio Pagán has never seemed more important.
Pagán, who earned a career-high 32 saves in 2025, also has been an invaluable clubhouse influence the past two years – something that might be even more important in 2026 considering the especially young core of relievers the Reds might have to lean on (Connor Phillips, Zach Maxwell, Carson Spiers, Luis Mey, Yosver Zulueta, et al).
He made $8 million a year his first two years with the Reds. If a 25% or 30% annual raise gets a new multiyear deal done, the Reds might need to pounce.