ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for December 21st are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
What you need to know for Thursday’s games
— Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe
Punting On The Pelicans: Are the Pelicans a fun watch? Of course, but when our expectations grow, they tend to shrink this season. Tonight will be the seventh time this season they are favored by at least 8 points … 2-4 ATS with under tickets cashing in five of six games. The note on the total is especially interesting when you consider that unders are just 8-16 in all other New Orleans games this season.
​​​Pricing the Pels: New Orleans might not have either Brandon Ingram (toe) or Zion Williamson (health and safety protocols) for tonight’s matchup with the visiting Spurs. If they don’t play, as expected, it’s a good spot to build around Jonas Valanciunas ($6,000 on DraftKings) and CJ McCollum ($7,500). “JV” posted a career-high seven 3-pointers and a season-best 37 points in his last outing, suggesting there is a fun ceiling in place. McCollum, meanwhile, has compiled 17 dimes over his last two games and is likely the player with the most upside on today’s limited slate. Deeper in the rotation we can expect Trey Murphy III (82% available in ESPN leagues) and Herbert Jones (73%) to provide helpful doses of defense and complementary scoring.
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​​​Streaming Spurs: The Spurs list leading scorer Keldon Johnson as doubtful to play against the Pelicans due to a hamstring tightness. His likely absence could lead to more minutes for Zach Collins (96% available in ESPN leagues), who has sported a usage rate above 20% over the last two games while scoring at least 10 points in four of his last five outings. For DFS purposes, Devin Vassell ($7,400 on DraftKings) and Jakob Poeltl ($6,400) are both projected to cruise past 30 DraftKings points with Johnson’s shot diet out of the rotation.
Rising Rookie: With Utah listing Kelly Olynyk as out for tonight’s matchup with Washington, we’re likely to see rookie rim protector Walker Kessler start once again for the Jazz. Kessler is sixth in the league in blocks per game (1.9) despite averaging just 17.7 minutes. Averaging right around 26 minutes across two recent starts in place of Olynyk, it’s time to roster Kessler as a premier defensive pickup for Thursday’s two-game slate.
Breaking down the slate
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans
8:00 p.m ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans
Line: Pelicans (-8.5)
Money line: Spurs (+278), Pelicans (-355)
Total: 228 points
BPI Projected Total: 234.2 points
BPI Win%: Pelicans (78.8%)
Questionable: Romeo Langford, Keldon Johnson, Larry Nance Jr.
Ruled Out: Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet and Fantasy Streamer: Herbert Jones (rostered in 29.2% of ESPN leagues) over 19.5 points+assists+rebounds. With Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram already ruled out, Jones will have to do more offensively. He’s averaged 10.2 PPG, 2.2 APG and 3.4 RPG so far this season. Jones is well-positioned to exceed those per-game averages against a Spurs team that ranks 30th in points allowed per 100 possessions. — EricMoody
Best bet: Jonas Valanciunas over 27.5 points+rebounds
Against a Spurs team that gives up many offensive rebounds to opponents and allows opponents to shoot the highest effective field goal percentage in the league, Valanciunas benefits from the absence of Zion Williamson. Over the last four games, he averaged 17.5 PPG and 10.2 RPG. When he gets enough touches like he should on Thursday night against the Spurs, Valanciunas is one of the best two-way big men in the league. — Moody
Fantasy Streamer: Naji Marshall (available in 98.4% of leagues) could be in line for bigger minutes with both Williamson and Ingram out. In four starts earlier this season, Marshall averaged 15.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.8 3PG and 1.5 SPG in 36.5 MPG. Earlier this month, he had a five-game stretch where he averaged 30.4 MPG, and posted 13.2 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.0 3PG and 0.6 BPG. When given minutes, he has a solid all-around game that can help in points, category and DFS formats. – Andre Snellings
Best Bet: CJ McCollum over 24.5 points
With Williamson and Ingram both out, McCollum becomes the primary scoring option for the Pelicans against a very friendly Spurs defense that has the worst defensive rating (118.3 points allowed per 100 possessions) in the NBA. — Snellings
Washington Wizards at Utah Jazz
9:00 p.m ET, Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City
Line: Jazz (-6)
Money line: Wizards (+205), Jazz (-250)
Total: 230 points
BPI Projected Total: 235.2 points
BPI Win%: Jazz (69.1%)
Questionable: Kristaps Porzingis
Ruled Out: Collin Sexton, Kelly Olynyk, Delon Wright
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Bradley Beal over 23.5 points
In two consecutive games, Beal has played 32 or more minutes and scored 27 or more points. The Jazz rank 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions. This game should have a lot of points scored with a total of 230. — Moody
Fantasy Streamer: Malik Beasley (available in 52.6% of leagues) has the occasional poor shooting game and because he does little else for a fantasy team, that can be dangerous, but he has also topped 20 fantasy points in seven of eight games, hitting plenty of 3-pointers. Assume he hits plenty of them against the Wizards. — Eric Karabell
Best bet: Mike Conley under 10.5 points
I don’t like taking the under on points too often, but Conley has made it clear this season and especially recently that he is far too pleased with distributing and not shooting. While Conley continues to get the assists, he has five consecutive games with seven or fewer points. He just doesn’t shoot much! — Karabell