How many times does a game end in regulation and you think, “Please, just end before the shootout”?
The pace is great, the action is exciting and now all the game needs is a dramatic finish, a dramatic finish the game won’t get in a shootout.
Well, those of us who prefer to see a game end within that five-minute overtime are in luck.
The vibes are trending up for overtime wins, and down for the shootout
So far, there have been 125 games to reach extra time this season. In those games, an overtime goal has been scored 87 times, or 69.6 percent of the time.
In 2015-16, the first year of three-on-three overtime, games ended in the five-minute period before the shootout 61.1 percent of the time. That number started to trend up over the next couple of years as teams bettered their strategies in those situations, peaking in 2018-19 at 67.9 percent before moving in the opposite direction. Last year, overtime games went to the shootout 35.4 percent of the time — the highest rate since 2015-16.
But this year, overtime games are ending ahead of the shootout at the highest rate since three-on-three hockey was first introduced. It’s not the only number to trend up, though.
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This year, there have been 14 goals scored on the power play in overtime. That’s 16 percent of the goals scored, which is the most since three-on-three overtime was enacted. Across a full season, the most overtime goals to be scored on the advantage came in 2019-20, at 15.9 percent, with 26 power-play goals. But the last two years have been particularly poor, below 10 percent in each season. There were just 18 power-play goals net in overtime last year. The NHL is only four shy of that number right now, in 163 fewer games.
Of course, there’s a catch. It’s not just a matter of more power-play goals, but penalties called in overtime as well. There have been 44 penalties called in overtime, and that excludes calls that come in the final moments of regulation that trickle into the five-minute period. That rates out to .35 per game, which is at a high since the first year of three-on-three.
How influential are those power-play goals? Take them out of the equation, and this year’s overtimes are ending before the shootout just 58 percent of the time. That’s in line with last year, and the average since 2015-16.
The vibes are concerning for former top forward prospects in New York
The Rangers’ leading forward prospects just haven’t developed at the rate that’s expected of top-10 picks. That’s true for former No. 1 overall pick Alexis Lafrenière, No. 2 overall pick Kaapo Kakko and, to a lesser extent, No. 9 overall pick Vitali Kravtsov.
Sometimes, players don’t live up to their draft hype. But top-10 picks are rated that highly for a reason: they have a very high ceiling and are expected to reach it quicker. But even with top-five picks, there can be a lot of variance in the caliber of player — which this handy visual from Prashanth Iyer helps to illustrate.
Development isn’t a straight line. There are twists, turns and hurdles along the way for many players. But the Rangers’ forwards have struggled more than expected, especially for a team that was rebuilding. Even then, there was a lot of emphasis on winning above all else and sometimes that pushed these players lower on the depth chart — something afforded to them because of the forward strength the team had at the top of the lineup.
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That’s a key difference between how their forwards and defenders have developed. For K’Andre Miller — who this section originally was going to be about, in a positive light — it was trial by fire. There weren’t many other capable defenders in New York to absorb his minutes, so he got to play through his mistakes and it has paid off.
A player does have to earn their minutes. But in the case of a top pick, especially after struggles in Year 1 for both Kakko and Lafrenière in particular, there has to be some give and take, too. If a player is put in a position to succeed, the onus then can be on them to maintain those minutes. And that can be a confidence booster that trickles down into the rest of their game. That hasn’t been the case in New York, compared to say, New Jersey, where Jack Hughes’ development has been a top priority.
So while the Rangers may be prioritizing winning above all else right now, the focus doesn’t have to be single-minded, either. Developing players who need to be a key part of that winning has to be a primary focus as well.
And maybe that does mean scratching a player like Lafrenière when he isn’t playing to the level that he should for a game — as long as it can be productive. Watching from above with a skills coach could be exactly what he needs in order to reset. But because this isn’t an isolated incident, and is a pattern, the big-picture question is whether this situation was brought on by how the team handled him and Kakko over the last few years, and what they can do now to help them truly hit their stride.
The vibes are trending up for the Capitals
Sticking with the Metropolitan Division, how about those Capitals?
Earlier this season, Washington was an easy team to count out. The injuries were piling up, the core is aging and the rest of the division is still very competitive — especially with the Devils and Islanders both looking to return to the playoffs (which would force out up to two teams from last year’s postseason picture).
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But thanks to the Capitals’ play as of late, those playoff chances are rapidly climbing. It timed well with the Islanders trending down for a bit earlier this month, the Devils’ unlucky streak and the Panthers dropping to a 50 percent chance of reaching the postseason, per The Athletic’s Dom Luszcyszyn’s model. And it helps that moving forward, the Rangers, Islanders and Devils have a much tougher schedule ahead while the Capitals see one of the best strength changes ahead. Even better is that the team is getting some internal reinforcements with T.J. Oshie, Tom Wilson and Martin Fehervary returning soon.
Via Dom Luszcyszyn
So what’s going right for the Capitals?
There’s Alex Ovechkin doing Alex Ovechkin-like things. He’s making NHL history and continues to exceed expectations with his signature shot. But on a team level, there’s some legitimate improvements below the surface as well. At five-on-five, this team is steadily on both ends of the ice.
Via Evolving-Hockey
Along with some more offensive creation, the team has really worked on its defense in front of the crease since mid-November, as the animated heat map below shows in blue.
Via HockeyViz
The goalies also deserve stick taps. Darcy Kuemper has earned a quality start in two of his four games in December. But the real hero has been Charlie Lindgren, who stepped up when his partner was out. In eight of 10 games played this month, ahead of Thursday night, he gave his team team a chance to win with a quality start.
The vibes are interchanging in the Pacific Division
For some time, the top three in the Pacific Division have been some combination of the Golden Knights, Kraken and Kings.
Vegas isn’t entirely surprising. This may be the weakest Golden Knights team since the inaugural roster, with key players becoming collateral from management’s salary-cap decisions, but it’s still a very good team. A new coach, Bruce Cassidy, brings some different ideas to the mix. And a healthy Mark Stone has been a difference-maker on both ends, as expected.
The Kraken have been the wild card. The goaltending’s been better than expected, even from an unlikely source in Martin Jones, and the team finally has goal support up and down the lineup.
The Kings are expected to be in the playoff combination, after making it last year and actually disrupting the Oilers.
With those three teams leading the way, it left Edmonton and Calgary as expected contenders for wild-card spots over the first couple of months of the season.
But now, things are getting a bit closer in the Pacific Division, which should make for an interesting finish. Ahead of Thursday night’s matchups, the Flames jumped ahead of Kraken with a win on Wednesday night. The Oilers, on the other hand, still sit outside the picture. And the Canucks are five points back of their division rivals.
This is likely just the start of shifting around the playoff picture in the Pacific Division.
As it stands, at their current point paces, the Golden Knights are projected to finish first, followed by Seattle, Los Angeles and Edmonton.
But with the rest of the road ahead in mind, the odds aren’t in that same favor.
Via Dom Luszcyszyn
The Flames are in a good position because their schedule is about to get a lot easier — after a tough start, they’re now seeing the best positive change in their schedule strength. The Kraken and Oilers should haver a smoother path ahead, in terms of schedule strength, while Los Angeles and Vegas should be challenged more.
That should make for a really interesting finish, which could be spiced up by the Central Division teams. While many would have guessed Nashville or St. Louis to make it before the start of the season, the odds are not in their favor right now. Instead, eyes are on likely contenders Minnesota and Colorado, along with Winnipeg and Dallas, who got off to strong starts. At the current rate, that would leave one Pacific Division slot open. And if Vegas and Seattle both make it, at least one of least year’s playoff teams from the Pacific will not.
Maybe there will actually be some chaos and unpredictability in the Western Conference race down the stretch if this keeps up.
The vibes are better than expected for Jeff Skinner
There are a few storylines in the Atlantic Division. The Bruins are crushing it. The Leafs have managed through quite a few injuries. The Lightning are just fine after a slow start. The Panthers are struggling. And the Senators, the team many expected to excel this season, are a bottom-10 team.
But let’s talk about everyone’s favorite team in that division, the Buffalo Sabres.
The story of the season, and really the last year, is Tage Thompson. He’s one of the most effective finishers of the last year, and is the best value player. His linemate, however, was considered to have one of the worst contracts in the league just a few months ago.
Jeff Skinner was signed to a massive eight-year contract worth $9 million, on average, in 2019. That should have been money reserved for the superstar tier, which the winger doesn’t really fit into despite being a fine top-six forward. He wasn’t playing to the level expected of a player on a contract like that in the early years, and his usage was extra funky under Ralph Krueger. But things have changed under head coach Don Granato, and with continued success this season, he’s showing that he still has a lot of pop left in his game.
This month was a prime example of that. Skinner has averaged a game score of 2.79, which led the league in December before Thursday’s dominant win over Detroit. It’s something that generally would earn him a star of the month, but the fact that he was limited to six games (before Thursday’s game) due to his suspension is what holds him back.
In those six games, Skinner totaled five goals and eight assists. At five-on-five in his minutes, Buffalo has outscored their opponents 10-1. That’s not exactly sustainable, since his play below the surface isn’t quite as tilted as the results show. Basically, it’s been an elevated extension of what’s been a strong season for the winger.
He has 23 five-on-five points and has earned a point on approximately 77 percent of the Sabres’ goals he’s been deployed for. Plus, 63 percent of the points he’s earned on those 30 goals have been primary, showing his direct influence on the team’s scoring.
Thompson is the driver of that line, and that’s obviously impacting his wingers. But there’s definitely a joint effort from Skinner and Alex Tuch. And that’s elevating each member in that trio. There’s still some work to do in their own zone, and that extends past the line, but offensively, these players are nothing short of exciting and impressive this season.
Via HockeyViz
A combination of confidence from the coach, high-caliber teammates and elite goal songs seems to be working for Skinner. And that’s production the Sabres are much better with, as evidenced by their play when they were without him earlier this month.
Stars of December
With five goals and eight assists in December, ahead of Toronto’s matchup in Arizona, Auston Matthews is now up to 17 goals and 40 points in 35 games. That puts him on pace for a 94-point season. At five-on-five, he’s rocked a 64 percent expected goals rate with even better results to show for it, as the Maple Leafs have outscored opponents 16-4 with Matthews on the ice in those situations. And as of the last stretch, that gap between the team’s expected goal generation and suppression has only grown in the center’s minutes.
It’s been a tricky year for Toronto so far, with a ton of injuries. But the key players the team would expect to step up have done so – including Matthews and his frequent linemate, William Nylander, who headline that top line.
Following Matthews is everyone’s favorite superstar, Thompson. What else is there to say? He’s a crafty goal-scorer, with 12 in December, but he’s not one-dimensional in the offensive department, either — netting nine assists along the way. Buffalo can’t stop outscoring opponents while he’s deployed, and the rest of the league can’t stop watching his highlight-reel plays.
Lastly, there’s Alex Ovechkin. The 37-year old is making history with his elite goal-scoring — reaching the 800-goal mark with a hat trick before moving past Gordie Howe with his 802nd tally. That scoring is a major reason why the Capitals are in the playoff race. The winger deserves a ton of credit for helping keep his team afloat while the injuries in Washington mounted. Now, the question is whether he can maintain that level. Last year, after a stellar start, his scoring slowed in the second half. Can he keep defying aging curves and using that incredible finishing talent to beat goalies? That’s something to keep an eye on as he inches closer to Wayne Gretzky’s goal record.
An honorable mention has to go to Hampus Lindholm in Boston. The defender has clearly clicked with the Bruins since coming over at last season’s trade deadline, and is playing more to his strengths with more support around him. It’s not easy to stack up to some of the best around the league in game score without a ton of scoring to show for it, but Lindholm managed to do so in December. The Bruins are generating approximately 62 percent of the expected goals share with him deployed — and he’s used against top competition — and have better results to show for it, especially back in his own end.
Data collected prior to Thursday night’s matchups, via Prashanth Iyer, Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, AllThreeZones and NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Top photo of Washington Capitals celebrating: Al Bello / Getty Images)