It would be easy to look at the San Jose Sharks’ record right now and feel like the team is going backward, not forward.
In fact, it would be downright understandable.
Prior to Saturday’s game with the Dallas Stars at American Airlines Center, the Sharks have 29 points with a record of 11-19-7, a 12-point dropoff from last season when they held a 20-16-1 record after 37 games.
Barring an improbable second-half turnaround, the Sharks will miss the playoffs for a fourth straight season and likely pick inside the top 10 in the 2023 NHL Draft.
The question that most of the team’s fans have is whether this is part of a protracted rebuild under general manager Mike Grier and coach David Quinn with more painful years ahead, or whether 2023 will mark the beginning of the Sharks’ renaissance.
Right now, the Sharks feel like they’re making strides, even though it hasn’t shown up in the standings. They’re a much better team at scoring goals 5-on-5 and have a power play that, unlike the previous three seasons, now ranks in the top half of the NHL.
Individually, a handful of players are enjoying bounce-back years, with Erik Karlsson having one of the most prolific seasons any defenseman has had in the last 30 years with 50 points in 37 games before Saturday.
Still, it feels like the Sharks face a long, hard road ahead.
“We’ve made progress in a lot of areas,” Quinn said. “The one area that we haven’t made (progress in) is winning and losing, which is really all it comes down to.”
Here are five ways the Sharks can improve in 2023.
1. UPGRADE THE GOALTENDING: Without question, this is the area that needs the most improvement.
It’s unfair to put all of the Sharks’ struggles on James Reimer and Kaapo Kahkonen. Overall, the skaters in front of them have not done a good enough job at times of limiting turnovers and managing the puck.
Still, the Sharks entered Saturday with a team save percentage of .880, the worst in the NHL and a dropoff from the .900 team save percentage they had last season. Their goals-against average before Saturday was 28th-best at 3.59. Among the 53 goalies who have played at least 12 games this season before Saturday, Reimer and Kahkonen ranked 43rd and 52nd, respectively, in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, per moneypuck.com.
A few more saves in the last three months likely would have gone a long way.
Reimer could get traded by the March 3 deadline, but the greater concern is Kahkonen, who is signed through next season at a salary cap hit of $2.75 million.
If Kahkonen cannot demonstrate before the end of the season that he’s capable of carrying the load, then the Sharks have to go out and find another goalie to make around 40-50 starts next season. Is Eetu Makiniemi that guy? Unlikely, given his lack of NHL experience.
2. KEEP TIMO: It’s up to Grier to determine whether it’s in the best interest of the Sharks to keep Timo Meier or trade him. If the Sharks are thinking long-term, then the likely move is to trade Meier for draft picks, prospects, or a combination of the two.
But if the Sharks want to try and get back into contention as soon as 2023-2024, then they likely need to hang onto Meier, at least for the start of the season. The Sharks do not have another winger capable of scoring 35-40 goals, and the team will not be better in the short term without Meier. Finding a replacement in free agency will be expensive, with no guarantee of success.
The Sharks have options with Meier: Trade him by the March 3 deadline, give him a $10 million qualifying offer in the summer to retain his rights for next season, sign him to a long-term extension at some point during the 2023-2024 season, or deal him by the 2024 trade deadline. We’ll see what happens.
3. PROMOTE THE KIDS: We’ll see how many of the Sharks’ top forward prospects are ready for full-time NHL jobs in 2023, but it has to be more than zero.
The Sharks desperately need an injection of dynamism (and hope) and it’s possible players like William Eklund, Thomas Bordeleau, and even Danil Gushchin can provide that element. It’s also possible that by giving these players a chance in the NHL, either after the trade deadline or at the start of next season, it will push other players to be better.
4. WIN THE LOTTERY: Easy enough, right? As it stood before Saturday’s games, the Sharks have the fourth-worst record in the NHL and therefore a 9.5 percent chance of winning the draft lottery if the standings hold for the second half of the season.
Winning the lottery and perhaps moving into the No. 2 draft position would give the Sharks a chance to draft a player like Connor Bedard or Adam Fantilli who can step into an NHL lineup right away. Both are phenomenal talents who would instantly make any team they play for better.
5. GET FASTER: The Sharks’ aren’t a terribly fast team as currently constructed and their lack of speed has been evident in various losses this season, notably to Detroit, Seattle, Ottawa, Toronto, et al. It says here that the Sharks just aren’t fast enough to play the aggressive system that Grier and Quinn want.
The Sharks could get quicker by injecting Bordeleau or Eklund into the lineup. But this could also be an issue that Grier and the Sharks front office also seek to address in the offseason. With an average age of close to 29, the Sharks are not a young team, and won’t be getting faster just by themselves with another year together.