We’re crossing the halfway mark this week, which means we can officially and mercifully put “it’s too early” to bed. There’s still plenty of time for twists and turns, and history tells us that we’ll see at least a few teams collapse or surge. But we’ve seen enough that we can start digging through the numbers without the constant disclaimers about how none of it actually matters.
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For example: Let’s look at some records by division and conference.
We don’t tend to spend a lot of time digging into those numbers. And rightly so: We’re dealing with small samples, so there’s definitely a ton of noise, and it’s easy to overreact. But there can still be some interesting stuff in there, so let’s use this week’s bonus top five to see what we can find.
Top five division/conference record oddities that may or may not mean something
5. Golden Knights — They’ve been great against the Central and Atlantic, at a combined 18-4-0. They’re an OK 4-3-0 against the Metro. But against their own division, they’re a losing team — just 5-6-2 in the Pacific.
If it holds up: Maybe we shouldn’t be so sure that this is the Knights’ division to run away with.
4. Penguins — At first glance, their 20-13-6 record looks solid enough. But they’re a combined 13-13-6 against the Metro, Atlantic and Pacific, and a perfect 7-0-0 against the Central. Three of those wins have come against the tanking Hawks and Coyotes, although they’ve also beaten the Stars, Wild and Jets.
If it holds up: They’ll be rooting for the Central in the Western Conference final, because they’re only 3-6-0 against the Pacific.
3. Coyotes — They’re a respectable 11-12-2 against the East, but just 2-9-3 against the West. That’s weird not just because of the win percentage discrepancy, but also because of how East-heavy their schedule has been early on. Remember, they had those monster road trips early on while they waited for the Mullet.
If it holds up: A team that’s had a better first half than we thought might collapse down the stretch against their own conference. Which is probably exactly what you want if you’re a Coyotes fan.
2. Bruins — They’re literally unbeatable against the Metro, going a perfect 11-0-0. Last night’s win in Anaheim moved them to 7-0-2 against the Pacific. And they’re 8-1-0 against the Central, meaning they’ve lost exactly one game in regulation in a combined 29 games against all three rival divisions. But against the Atlantic, they’re just 6-3-2. That’s good, but it’s not dominant, with just one win more than they’ve lost.
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If it holds up: It might be tougher for the Bruins to get out of the division than we think. (But if they do, it’s over.)
1. Canucks — Outside their division, they’re a putrid 7-16-3, a 53-point pace that would put them in the running for dead last most years. But in the Pacific, they’re actually 10-3-0, which… what? They’ve padded the record a bit with three wins over the Sharks, but they’ve beaten everyone at least once, and are 2-0-0 against the playoff-bound Kraken.
If it holds up: Their second-half schedule is Pacific-heavy, although that doesn’t kick in for a few weeks left. They’ll probably be done by then, but if they’re hanging around, they might be in better shape than you think.
On to this week’s top and bottom five…
Road to the Cup
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
Big news from the weekend: Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson are back in Washington. John Carlson is out, so the Capitals aren’t approaching full power quite yet, but we’re about to find out just how good they can be.
5. Toronto Maple Leafs (25-9-7, +34 true goals differential*) — I guess? I’m officially nervous about the goaltending again, but a pair of weekend wins remind us that this team doesn’t need Vezina-level performance to get points in January. April, on the other hand…
4. Dallas Stars (23-11-6, +28) — See, this is why I don’t like adding new teams. I finally put the Stars in the top five last week, and they repay me with losses to the Kings and Ducks. My bias for the status quo kept you out for months, and it will keep you in this week (along with that nice rebound win over the Panthers). But I’m putting you back behind the Avalanche as a warning to shape up.
3. Colorado Avalanche (20-15-3, +1) — Down 2-0, on the road, against a playoff team. Nate, you want to take this one?
Yep, that’ll do it, thanks.
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2. Carolina Hurricanes (25-8-7, +17) — The big story is that Max Pacioretty is back, scoring twice on Saturday. That was cool, but it wasn’t enough to help the once unbeatable Canes snap what’s now become a losing streak.
Three losses in a row isn’t a big worry, but it certainly does put a damper on the idea that they were running away from the Devils. They’ve got New Jersey tomorrow, by the way.
1. Boston Bruins (32-4-4, +68) — They keep winning, but got some rough news with a long-term injury to Jake DeBrusk coming just a few days after he took over the Winter Classic. Fluto takes a look at what the injury might mean for the team, especially for GM Don Sweeney.
*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.
Not ranked: Winnipeg Jets and Minnesota Wild — I think I owe the Central a bit of an apology.
In my defense, I’ve only got so many brain cells to devote to each division. I’ve used a bunch of them trying to figure out the up-and-down Blues, and a few more enjoying the all-time tank jobs happening in Arizona and Chicago. And of course, I’ve spent all year twisting myself into knots to keep the Avs in my top five. I still don’t think I’m wrong about them still being a top contender, and it’s worth pointing out that the various sportsbooks and oddsmakers agree with me. But it’s possible that I’ve leaned so heavily on Colorado that I’ve been missing the boat on the division’s other top teams.
I finally came around on Dallas last week, promoting them to the top five. So I finally acknowledged that there were other good teams in the Central, and the whole division wasn’t just waiting around for a coronation once Colorado got healthy.
Cool. So what about the Jets and Wild?
I haven’t had either team in the top five this year, which probably isn’t all that controversial. But I also realized this week that I hadn’t even mentioned either team in the “not ranked” section, making them the only two teams to be shut out completely.
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So is this a case of a typical eastern writer ignoring good teams in the Western Conference? Put differently: While both teams are having solid seasons, are either of them actually contenders?
The Jets feel like the easier answer of the two, since they’re red hot right now and have one of the best goalies in the world, so they’ll make for a scary matchup against anyone they run into. Connor Hellebuyck has been fantastic, giving his team a chance just about every game. And that’s been all they’ve needed most nights because the blue line is no longer a mess and we’re finally seeing that balanced scoring we thought would be their strength last year. The Canucks got a heaping close-up yesterday.
The underlying numbers aren’t great. But with Hellebuyck and the forwards, that doesn’t necessarily feel fake, or even especially unsustainable. Nikolaj Ehlers is back. Josh Morrissey is getting some longshot Norris love. And I know we’ve all already decided that Jim Montgomery is the Jack Adams winner, but at some point, we have to recognize that Rick Bowness seems to have been exactly what this team needed (and not just the uninspired Barry Trotz placeholder that folks like me thought he was).
The Wild have been rolling after a shaky start. They sat at a pedestrian 7-8-2 through mid-November, but have gone 15-6-0 since, including wins over the Hurricanes, Lightning and Stars. They’ve also beaten the Jets twice, by a combined score of 10-2. Unlike the Jets, they’re doing it without set-it-and-forget-it goaltending, with Marc-Andre Fleury struggling for stretches while Filip Gustavsson has been very good as a 1A, but doesn’t have the track record.
Never seen a goalie beat himself up like Fleury. He’s slamming things, apologizing to teammates, cursing, saying 5 goals should be a win every time I can tell you, MAF has been dealing with a deep personal matter the last week and is leaving #mnwild tonight til Tuesday — Michael Russo (@RussoHockey) January 8, 2023
If the playoffs started today, Dean Evason would have an interesting decision to make in goal. But they don’t, and the coach still has half a season to work through it. In the meantime, they’re getting healthy and looking strong, despite last night’s loss.
Add it all up, and there are four very good teams in the Central, one confusing one, and two intentionally bad ones. The path out of the division will be tough, but otherwise, we finally might have it all figured out.
(Remembers Nashville exists.) Oh right. Crap, back to the drawing board.
The bottom five
The five teams that are headed towards dead last, and the best lottery odds for Connor Bedard.
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An important reminder from elsewhere in the sports world: If you’re going to tank, don’t let your coach figure out that part of the plan is he’s getting fired for losing too much. Let’s just say he might get the last laugh.
5. San Jose Sharks (12-21-8, -26) — In their last 23 games, they’ve only beaten six teams, and it’s a list of the league’s also-rans: Chicago, Arizona, Anaheim, Ottawa, Montreal and… uh, Minnesota. Hey, you Wild fans told me you wanted more Central coverage, so here you go.
4. Arizona Coyotes (13-21-5, -36) — Just when you start to wonder if they’re really serious about this whole lottery thing, they find a way to lose in regulation to the charred husk of the Chicago Blackhawks. Remember, a lot of you teams are just one-year tourists in tankland, the Coyotes have lived here for years.
3. Anaheim Ducks (12-25-4, -73) — They looked at least a little bit feisty this week, with a shutout win over the Stars and an OT decision against the Sharks before hanging in with the Bruins for half a game last night. We’ll reward them by bumping them out of the bottom two for the first time since mid-November.
2. Columbus Blue Jackets (12-25-2, -52) — Yesterday’s 1-0 loss to the Caps continued a trend, as the Blue Jackets have now managed one goal or less in six of their last 12. They’ve won two of those dozen games, and just one in regulation, because it turns out that winning is hard when you can’t score.
1. Chicago Blackhawks (10-25-4, -56) — They won! Twice! Oops!
Actually, it’s probably fine. You can’t lose ‘em all, despite how hard Kyle Davidson is trying. Don’t panic, Hawks fans. And certainly don’t go and make any horrific mistakes that will ruin your entire life.
Not ranked: Detroit Red Wings — They were one of the best stories in the league over the first few months, offering proof that a slow-and-steady rebuild could pay off. You didn’t need a lottery win, or three years of tanking. Just a plan, some patience, and a steady hand at the wheel.
On December 13, the Red Wings were 13-8-6. Fake .500, sure, but good enough for a playoff spot, not to mention vindication for an impressive offseason. I even featured them in the “not ranked” section of the top five, even as I wrote that I didn’t think they were a real playoff contender.
Since then, they’ve lost seven of ten, including to Atlantic also-rans like the Sabres, Senators and Panthers. The playoffs don’t feel like a goal anymore. And this week, we had the weird Jakub Vrána situation, which saw a guy who’s scored at a 40-goal pace for the Wings get dumped on waivers. That was a tough one to figure out, even factoring in his recent stint in the player assistance program and his less-than-impressive performance during an AHL condition stint. It was hard to figure out whether Steve Yzerman was trying to dump the guy, or just sneak him through waivers for some added roster flexibility.
If it was the latter, it worked. If it’s the former, everyone needs to pretend otherwise for now, at least until a potential trade down the line. Until then, we’re left with Vrana in the AHL while the Red Wings try to score enough to make up for some iffy goaltending. That’s been mostly coming from Ville Husso and Alex Nedeljkovic, two Yzerman trade targets who’ve been reminding us that sometimes teams make young goalies available for a reason.
Ten games ago, I wrote that “Yzerman’s insistence on patience and his refusal to make big, bold moves has been frustrating for instant-gratification hacks like me, but it’s working.” It mostly still is, but this doesn’t feel like a dream season anymore. Instead, it’s looking like yet another year of patience in Detroit.
(Top photo of Wild’s Mats Zuccarello, Filip Gustavsson and Jets’ Adam Lowry: James Carey Lauder / USA Today)