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The NFL’s 2023 wild-card playoffs begin tomorrow with a pair of games on opposite coasts. In the early window, the No. 7 Seattle Seahawks (9-8, 4-4 away, 7-10 ATS) visit the No. 2 San Francisco 49ers (13-4, 8-1 home, 11-6 ATS) at Levi’s Stadium at 4:30 p.m. EST.
The nightcap sees the No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (10-7, 5-4 away, 11-5-1 ATS) travel to face the No. 4 Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8, 5-3 home, 8-9 ATS) at 8:15 p.m. EST at TIAA Bank Field.
Below, find the odds and picks for both games (in chronological order).
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Seahawks vs. 49ers Odds
Team Spread Moneyline Total Seahawks +9.5 (-110) +390 O 42.5 (-105) 49ers -9.5 (-110) -510 U 42.5 (-115)
The Seahawks/49ers odds have seen massive movement over the past five days. The point spread opened at just 6.5 and has ballooned to 9.5. The Niners moneyline was -295 last Sunday and was sitting at -510 roughly 18 hours before kickoff. The total has also moved a full point, dropping from 43.5 to 42.5, with the under slightly favored.
Don’t be surprised if it’s down to 42 by kickoff as wind and rain is in the forecast.
San Francisco dominated regular-season matchups
The two regular-season games between these bitter division rivals both went in favor of the Niners, and they weren’t particularly close. San Francisco dominated the Seahawks 27-7 in Seattle during Week 2, and followed that up with a 21-13 home victory in Week 15.
The latter wasn’t as close as the final score suggests; San Francisco led 21-3 midway through the third quarter and out-gained Seattle by over 100 yards in the game (381 to 277).
While the San Francisco defense deservedly gets most of the praise for the team’s success – the unit ranks first in scoring defense (16.3 PPG) and yards (300.6 YPG) – rookie quarterback Brock Purdy has been rock-solid since replacing an injured Jimmy Garoppolo. The Iowa State product averaged 218 passing yards per game over his six starts (all wins) and has a 67.1 completion percentage on the season to go along with a 13:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Seahawks limp into playoffs
While the Niners enter the postseason with the league’s longest win streak (10 games), the Seahawks needed OT to beat the lowly and injury-riddled Rams in Week 18, and lost five of their final eight down the stretch.
Their defense ranks a subpar 22nd in overall efficiency per PFF and looked vulnerable both times it faced the Niners. The Geno Smith-led offense is supposedly the strength of the team (sitting 12th in the NFL per PFF) but could hardly gain a first down against this top-ranked 49ers defense.
The area of this game I’m most-confident handicapping is the matchup between the San Fran defense and Seattle offense, which I see being dominated by the former, especially early on. My best bet for this game is Seattle under 7.5 in the first half, which you can get at -155 at Barstool Sportsbook.
Pick: Seattle first-half under 7.5 (-155)
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Chargers vs. Jaguars Odds
Team Spread Moneyline Total Chargers -2.5 (-106) -138 O 47.5 (-110) Jaguars +2.5 (-114) +118 U 47.5 (-110)
The odds for the Chargers/Jaguars matchup have not changed much since last Sunday. Los Angeles opened as a 2.5-point favorite in the NFL odds for wild-card weekend, while the moneyline has trended slightly in the Chargers’ direction (from -132 to -138).
The total has gone up half a point from 47 to 47.5.
If the chalk holds, the winner of this game will face the No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round of the NFL playoff bracket.
Jaguars destroyed Chargers back in Week 3
Nearly a lifetime ago in NFL terms, the Chargers and Jags tangled in Week 3 in Los Angeles with the visitors romping to a 38-10 win that was never really in doubt. Sophomore pivot Trevor Lawrence had one of the best games of his young career, going 28-39 for 262 yards and three touchdown without a pick.
On the opposite side, Justin Herbert was an ugly 25-45 (55-percent) for 297 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
The Chargers may be favored, but the Jaguars match up very well against them. Pay attention to how much LA has to use 5-man fronts vs the Jags run game. Tough task for their D pic.twitter.com/u8cvcDuOKJ — Chris Simms (@CSimmsQB) January 12, 2023
For the season as a whole, the Jaguars rated better than the Chargers overall according to Pro Football Focus (20th vs. 25th) and significantly better on defense (15th vs. 28th).
Both teams come into the postseason relatively hot. Before resting starters in Week 18, the Chargers had won four straight and five of six. The Jaguars capped off their season with a five-game win streak and managed to get back above .500 after stumbling to a 2-6 record midway through the year.
Neither team has much playoff experience
Now in his third season, Herbert will be making his first ever playoff start this Saturday. Same goes for Lawrence, whose Jaguars went just 3-14 in his rookie season. There is a significant discrepancy among the head coaches, though. Chargers boss Brandon Staley is in just his second season as an HC and will be coaching in his first playoff game.
The Jaguars, however, have Super Bowl-champion Doug Pederson crafting their game plan. Pederson went 4-2 overall in the postseason during his five seasons with the Eagles, winning Super Bowl LII during the 2017-18 campaign.
Wrong team is favored
Perhaps my favorite bet of the entire weekend is the Jaguars moneyline (+118). They have a better defense, a more-experienced playoff coach, and ample weapons on offense to matchup with the Chargers. On top of that, they have home-field advantage against a team that they’ve already crushed.
There should be no shortage of confidence on the Jacksonville sideline, and that will be an important factor for this young squad in its first playoff game together.
Pick: Jaguars moneyline (+118)
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