Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will contest the title of new Australian Open champion with the final scheduled for Saturday morning (in Italy) no earlier than 9:30.
They are two of the most eagerly awaited faces in this 2023: one expected from a year of redemption and completion after so many ups and downs, the second who had to pick up from that unexpected triumph at Wimbledon also to cancel all the wagon that accompanied those two weeks and position himself as a valid top-10 or top-5, a level he would have in the standings with the 2000 points of that London success.
DIFFERENT ROUTES
Precisely due to the “fault” of that Wimbledon, Rybakina probably did not have the right degree of attention at the beginning of the tournament when trying to identify a small circle of big favorites where three names stood out above all: Iga Swiatek, because number 1 and back from his stellar 2022; Jessica Pegula, because she is always very constant in big tournaments and appeared in excellent form in the first outings of the year; Sabalenka, because she is a Ferrari that had to find the right driveability. Elena wasn’t there, she too because she was seeded number 22 and a little scattered in the draw, but she immediately looked to that possible eighth-final against Iga as a crucial junction of the women’s draw. Either she, or Danielle Collins, would have been a very big obstacle for the Pole to overcome. And so it was.
There was no debut in the extraordinary tournament, perhaps that first round against Elisabetta Cocciaretto represented the most fluctuating match for Rybakina with three breaks suffered, difficulty closing the first set and recovery from 3-1 in the second. From then on, however, he traveled with a performance of 9. Travolta Kaja Juvan in the second round, beat Collins in the third, leaving a set on the way but never risking losing, 6-4 6-4 to Swiatek, 6-2 6-4 to Aljona Ostapenko, 7-6 6-3 to Victoria Azarenka. The semifinal against the Belarusian saw her lead well in scoring until the former world number 1 invented the passer who reopened a set that seemed closed. It was a bit of a struggle for the Kazakh, who also came back from 0-40 to 5-5, but overall she deserved it and this journey, just two Grand Slams after Wimbledon, is very important.
In London there was mainly talk of his origins. A native of Moscow, a Russian citizen until the beginning of 2019, she moved to Kazakhstan in the market that the state of the former Soviet Union made by taking Russian players with an agreement between the federal presidents of the two countries, promising them money, food, accommodation. For some, like Rybakina, the situation was a godsend as the Russian federation, which let her go without batting an eye, did not believe in her as in many other interesting girls who, however, had no support. Hence the case of Daria Gavrilova, who became Australian almost out of “spite” towards her own country in 2013, or of Daria Kasatkina who was not contacted at the time and to give her a chance to have a career, her parents even had to sell their home. For this reason, with very specific and hard to digest dynamics, choices are never made lightly in this context. And also for this reason Rybakina, even then, did not want to talk about it. Let alone today, that with current news events being a Russian citizen can become a problem. Especially if the Wimbledon tournament decides to ban Russian and Belarusian tennis players from participating and ends up being won by a Russian naturalized Kazakh.
In short, a new Grand Slam final could give us the opportunity to be able to talk only or above all about how well Rybakina actually plays. Clear prototype of the modern player, very aggressive and fairly uniform on both sides, she is constantly growing and this year so far she also seems to have good continuity of service: already 14 aces in the first match of the season in Adelaide, here in Melbourne she has gone several times in double digits.
Sabalenka, if possible, did even better. His 2023 so far is made up of only positive data: 10 consecutive victories, 20 sets won on as many played. She will deservedly return to number 2 in the world already with this final and if she wins tomorrow, in addition to the first Slam on the bulletin board, she will put a 2000-point lead in her Race between her and Swiatek. We are only at the dawn of the new season, but that’s what it takes to try to overturn the script of 2022. Especially from a girl who has been waiting for a long time for this kind of match and who now seems to have at least one extra gear. In this Australian Open, for the number 5 seed, it was said that the real test could come in the round of 16 and in fact it was the match where she could really risk something since she faced Belinda Bencic, who later turned out to be the most formidable opponent of the six face. After a stuttering start, she gradually rebalanced the situation before “breaking through” the Swiss wall between the end of the first set and the first part of the second.
Play well, Aryna, mostly because it feels like it’s rarely seen before. She is quite calm, said for someone who is a volcano of energy and frenzy on the pitch. She had to contain herself a bit more than anything else in the quarterfinal against Donna Vekic but even though she didn’t shine too much she finished 6-3 6-2. She has spoken these days of how she has stopped seeing a psychologist because she no longer wants to know and wants to be able to manage herself as she sees fit. This first month she is fully proving her right and who knows if in the year of 25 she will be able to find the right dimension. This is also the final number 20 of her career. There are many, there are “heavy” finals. There are ‘1000’ on the bulletin board, there is the defeat in the last act of the last WTA Finals. Very often she had suffered important moral beatings, with three consecutive semi-final losses to remind her of this. All defeats, among other things, arrived with a 6-4 in the third set. You have navigated, and you are probably still trying to do so, between the folds of a difficult character, with positions that have made you a very controversial character even at home. On the pitch, however, she is that player who takes character and spirit, not only one who shoots at all but capable when all goes well of disengaging between defenses and descents to the net. She is quite complete, only she would always need to feel good with her head because very often her defeats are failures in her life for her.
THE COMPARISON
Sabalenka has won all three previous matches, always ending in the third set. They faced each other for the first time in the quarterfinals of the WTA 1000 in Wuhan in 2019, a tournament then won by the Belarusian who won 6-3 1-6 6-1 that day. The second challenge always came in the quarterfinals in January 2021 in Abu Dhabi and again Aryna won in the third set (6-4 3-6 6-3). Finally, a few months later, in the round of 16 at Wimbledon, the then number 2 in the draw got the better of it 6-3 4-6 6-3.
Many things have changed since then. Rybakina had her moment of glory, despite the moments of tension with the press and the very little recognition received from the tennis world (insiders in primis). Sabalenka entered something of a crisis right in the middle of 2021 by breaking the fast on titles earlier this year in Adelaide.
THE POINT ON WHICH THE MATCH WILL SPIN
Having said that in many things they may be quite similar (although Sabalenka may have something more), the possible key to the match could be the second serve.
Aryna has shown that she has very little fear even at the cost of a double fault. She is capable of forcing and cornering the ball by taking huge risks, even if she doesn’t want to start at a disadvantage in the rally. Elena on the other hand is perhaps more conservative, with a greater difference in quality compared to a first one from which she obtains very high percentages and which tomorrow will have to support her as much as possible.
The Kazakh on the second ball, although not too prone to double faults (unlike her opponent, who has in any case cut the data a lot lately), however has more of a “safe” shot, sometimes without pushing too much and risking the immediate assault. Coincidentally, in her semifinal against Azarenka the moment she started not putting the first ball for more consecutive points is also the one where the Belarusian almost risked turning the set in her favor, stopping as mentioned at that 5-5 0 -40 in the first set.
The winner will succeed Ashleigh Barty, champion in 2022 and officially retired from competition just two months later.