Since winning AL Rookie of the Year honors in 2015, Carlos Correa has been one of the most consistently excellent shortstops in baseball. And after betting on himself by taking a short-term deal with the Twins last offseason, Correa was hoping to cash in with a massive contract this winter. Instead, he saw deals with the Giants and Mets fall through because of medical evaluations before settling on a six-year, $200 million contract to return to the Twins. Now, Fantasy baseball owners are wondering just how bad things must be before grabbing Correa early in 2023 Fantasy baseball drafts.
Correa has been the 17th shortstop off the board and has a 2023 Fantasy baseball ADP of 105 overall as we head towards MLB Spring Training. But he’s managed to play 284 games the last two seasons despite having what one doctor called the worst ankle he’d ever seen. A reliable set of 2023 Fantasy baseball rankings can help you figure out how to handle Correa while also identifying potential 2023 Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts. Before going on the clock in any 2023 Fantasy baseball drafts, be sure to see the Fantasy baseball rankings 2023 and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Last season, SportsLine’s Projection Model identified several top Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts, including Reds first baseman Joey Votto. The team at SportsLine was all over Votto as a Fantasy bust from the start after a resurgent 2021 season that saw him going as one of the top 12 first basemen off the board in 2022 Fantasy baseball drafts. After slashing .266/.375/.563 with 36 homers and 99 RBI the year prior, Votto slashed .205/.319/.370 with 11 home runs and 41 RBIs in 2022. He finished outside the top 45 players at his position and anybody who following SportsLine’s advice avoided a major headache.
Their model is powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. And that same group is sharing its 2023 Fantasy baseball rankings and cheat sheets over at SportsLine, helping you find Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts long before your competition. Their cheat sheets, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day.
Any time more MLB news comes out about the updated 2023 MLB schedule or Fantasy baseball injuries, the team at SportsLine updates its projections. Go to SportsLine now to see these proven Fantasy baseball cheat sheets.
Top 2023 Fantasy baseball sleepers
One of the 2023 Fantasy baseball sleepers the model is all over: Rockies second baseman Brendan Rodgers. Perhaps you prefer to have some speed in the middle infield, but Rodgers makes up for what he lacks as a base stealer with exceptional bat control and still-developing power. After batting .298 in 1,700 career minor-league plate appearances, Rodgers hit .284 as a rookie with 15 home runs and 51 RBI.
And while his average dropped off to .266 with 13 home runs and 63 RBI last season, he actually increased his average exit velocity (88.8 mph to 90.0 mph), walk rate (4.6% to 7.9%), hard-hit contact rate (40.6% to 46.3%) while decreasing his strikeout rate from 20.2% to 17.4%. With an improved flyball rate, Rodgers has plenty of power to evolve into a 25-30 homer threat in Coors Field, and that’s why the model ranks him as its No. 16 second basemen despite the fact that he’s been drafted 29th at his position overall.
Top 2023 Fantasy baseball breakouts
One of the 2023 Fantasy baseball breakouts the model is jumping on: Rockies shortstop Ezequiel Tovar. The 21-year-old Venezuelan signed with the Rockies for $800,000 back in 2017 and he’s developed rapidly while playing his way through the Colorado minor league system. Last season, Tovar slashed .319/.387/.540 with 14 home runs and 17 stolen bases across 71 games while playing for both the double-A and triple-A affiliates.
That also earned him a September callup where he got 35 plate appearances over nine games and even hit his first career MLB home run on the final day of the season. Now Tovar enters the 2023 season as MLB Pipeline’s No. 25 overall prospect, and his Gold Glove potential at shortstop has him looking like the presumed Opening Day starter for the Rockies. And the model ranks him as its No. 22 shortstop for 2023 despite the fact that he’s the 31st shortstop off the board on average.
Top 2023 Fantasy baseball busts
As for players to avoid, the model has pinpointed new Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson as one of its biggest 2023 Fantasy baseball busts. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 MLB Draft spent the first seven seasons of his MLB career with the Braves and he’s steadily developed into an offensive threat over the years, earning his first all-star selection last year and finishing with 25 home runs, 96 RBI and 18 stolen bases.
However, Swanson’s career-high .277 batting average was aided by a .348 BABIP that was more than 35 points better than his career average, and now he’s going to have a month or two of unfavorable hitting conditions to deal with in Chicago. He also won’t have nearly as much protection with the Cubs as he had with the Braves and those are both big reasons why the model ranks him outside its top 12 shortstops despite the fact that he’s been the sixth player drafted at the position on average.
How to find proven 2023 Fantasy baseball rankings
SportsLine’s model is also high on a surprising starting pitcher who lands in the top 10 of its positional rankings. This player is barely going off the board in the top 125 picks, but is projected to outperform starters such as Aaron Nola, Shane McClanahan and Brandon Woodruff. This pick could be the difference in winning your league or going home with nothing. You can only see who it is here.
So which 2023 Fantasy baseball busts, breakouts, and sleepers should you target or fade in your drafts? Visit SportsLine now to get 2023 Fantasy baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Joey Votto’s disappointing season, and find out.