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A 34-year-old Patrick Kane, his potential suitors and the Chicago Blackhawks front office have all found themselves in an interesting predicament as the March 3 trade deadline looms.
Kane told the media Monday that his agent, Pat Brisson, presented a list of teams that have shown interest in trading for him. The career Blackhawks star has significant control over his destiny, with a no-move clause and an apparent list of options—including riding out the final year of his $10.5 million contract in Chicago.
Look, you don’t sign your superstar to an eight-year contract banking on the eighth year holding up. You understand that, in many cases, the last year or so ends up as a write-off. That’s fine—especially when the team itself is experiencing a rebuild—if said star plans on retiring and riding off into the sunset.
In this case, though, Kane is at least entertaining the idea of one last hurrah elsewhere. As rebuilders, the Blackhawks would obviously love to get something out of it.
Now, in this salary-cap economy, it’s almost inevitable that they will have to eat some of Kane’s contract for any deal to work. It’s still going to be a steep price tag.
It’s not every day that teams get an opportunity to trade for someone who has had such an impact on the game for over a decade. Kane’s experience, including three Stanley Cups and a Conn Smythe Trophy, would be welcome on any contender.
But that last Cup win was in 2015, and contenders will have to give up significant future assets to the rebuilding Blackhawks for a shot at Kane.
Nostalgia aside, is it worth it? And which team could actually pull off a trade with assets and cap space?
Let’s take a look at Kane’s performance over the past few seasons, how he’d fit into some of the teams circling the rumor mill and what the price could be.
Evaluating Kane’s Contemporary Play
Kane’s only got nine goals and 25 assists for 34 points and a negative-26 rating in 45 games, on pace for a career-worst season by a large margin.
One might assume this is just the product of getting older and the team getting worse, but curiously enough, this hasn’t been some sort of steady career-ending decline.
Kane was basically in the Hart Trophy conversation last season with 26 goals and a team-high 92 points in 78 games. He hasn’t dropped under a point per game (until now) since 2017-18, and in 2018-19, he hit 44 goals and 110 points.
His underlying metrics have even been good-to-outstanding until the wild dive they’ve abruptly taken this year. According to NaturalStatTrick.com, his Corsi For percentage is a brutal 40.3, while, his expected goals for percentage is 39.3.
Kane’s defense has taken a stark turn this season, too, best represented in these graphs.
Age and general team decline aside, Kane just hasn’t been the storied sniper who has always aced our eye tests over the years—a sniper who had the ability to keep sniping despite the team crumbling around him.
What’s going on?
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman had an interesting point regarding what has been the worst year of Kane’s career, which has spanned three different decades.
“I was talking to guys that have played against him recently,” Friedman said on his 32 Thoughts podcast (around the 47:12 mark) on Feb. 6. “They can see he’s really gutting it out, and he’s not 100 percent. What this one player said to me is that you can tell he’s not Patrick Kane, but he really praised him for the effort.”
A few insiders, including The Athletic’s Arthur Staple, have indicated injury troubles. “Seems like the whole league knows now that Kane needs hip surgery,” Staple wrote with his trademark bluntness.
Kane was on IR in January with a nagging hip issue, which teams interested in him have inquired about, according to Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times.
It’s a huge concern, although you could argue Kane at 70 percent might still be useful on a team with two specific needs: veteran presence and clutch goal-scoring.
Where Could He Land?
Let’s pretend Kane has completely waived his no-trade clause, and all contenders are on the table.
The Rangers might have the best potential return for the Blackhawks with their two 2023 first-round picks, or they could give up a first and a second and still have one first. Truthfully, I’m not a fan of this for a young team that has a solid decade of potential ahead of it and has been fun but slightly inconsistent this year.
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Hold off, Rangers.
Next, we’ve got the Bruins, who already have a depleted prospect pool and not much to offer on the draft pick front (nor should they, considering the first dilemma). I absolutely hate the idea of them giving up Jake DeBrusk, who has had an emotional, bounce-back year under coach Jim Montgomery. DeBrusk is scoring more than Kane as it is, and the team is clearly doing just fine.
Sometimes it’s OK to opt for a low-key deadline move, especially with the team you already have. Looking at you, GM Don Sweeney.
Next, we’ve got the Hurricanes, a situation that has me more on the fence than the previous two. They’ve shaken things up more than usual these last few trade deadlines as the team has entered its Cup window, they need a replacement for Max Pacioretty, and they’ve been looking for an elite sniper for the past few years.
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My gut still says no, though, knowing the analytics geniuses in that front office and knowing their philosophy tends to favor franchise longevity over flashy moves. I have trouble justifying a return like Seth Jarvis or Martin Nečas, considering Kane’s age and contract status. Timo Meier feels like a more natural fit.
I could keep going down the list of potential suitors, but the same issue remains: There’s serious concern about the juice-to-squeeze ratio of any deal. However, with the injury information out in the open, suitors might find more leverage than expected with salary retention.
Then my mind wanders to one team: The Buffalo Sabres. They have the longest playoff drought in the league by far, but they’re on pace for a fun, Cinderella-style return this season. Kane might agree (and put his entire heart in) into a hometown run. Buffalo was ranked No. 1 by The Athletic’s Corey Pronman in his Prospect Pipeline Rankings and certainly has the young assets that could easily land Kane.
So how does this saga end? The magic eight ball is a little hazy at the moment. One thing is for sure: It’s going to be fascinating to see how it eventually plays out.