On Thursday, CBS Sports released its annual preseason ranking of the top 30 prospects in this year’s MLB draft in conjunction with the start of the college baseball season. Our rankings are formed through a variety of inputs, including conversations with industry insiders; firsthand statistical and observational analysis; and historical research.
Part of the fun of the preseason ranking is trying to predict who will move up the list by the time July’s draft rolls around. (And, arguably more importantly, by the time our updated summer ranking is published.) That’s why we decided to take some space and write about five players who we think could rise over the coming months. As always, note that there are more than five good candidates for a piece like this, and exclusion is not intended as an insult.
Now, let us proceed.
1. Colton Ledbetter, OF, Mississippi State
Why he isn’t ranked: Ledbetter enjoyed a breakout season at Samford, hitting .318/.407/.640 with more walks than strikeouts. He then partook in the New England Collegiate Baseball League (not to be confused with the Cape Cod League) and dominated there, too: .365/.464/.654 with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. In both instances, he was the most productive hitter on his team. Scouts just want to see Ledbetter play this well against better competition before they move him into the first-round vicinity. (Keep that explanation in mind, because it’s going to apply to a few more players in this article.)
Why he could be come July: Ledbetter will now get to play against the toughest pitchers on the college circuit. If he holds his own, he’ll move up preference lists in short order. Scouts consider him to be a good pure hitter with a professional approach and a strong feel for the barrel. Ledbetter is athletic enough to play some center field, too, further boosting his stock.
2. Wyatt Crowell, LHP, Florida State
Why he isn’t ranked: Crowell has pitched exclusively in relief during his collegiate career and while there is reason to think he’ll be moving into Florida State’s rotation this season, he’ll need to provide answers about how his frame (he’s listed at 6-foot, 170 pounds) and arsenal will hold up to the workload. In cases like this, we’re OK looking foolish should the pitcher rise to the occasion.
Why he could be come July: There are relievers and then there are relievers. Crowell was the latter in our evaluation. He averaged close to two innings per pop last season, all the while striking out nearly a third of the batters he faced and generating more than 60 percent grounders. He has two good pitches: a deceptive low-to-mid 90s fastball with good spin and slot and a swing-and-miss breaking ball. Crowell will have to hold his velocity and his effectiveness in order to turn over a lineup multiple times per appearance. If he proves up to the task, he’ll move up preference lists by July. Even if he fails, he should still go relatively early (just not top 30) as a quick-to-rise lefty reliever.
3. Michael Carico, C, Davidson
Why he isn’t ranked: Carico batted a Williamsian .406/.559/.843 last season, along with 21 home runs and 11 more walks than strikeouts in 54 games. Because those marks were produced largely against Atlantic 10 competition, scouts have concerns about how he’ll fare against pro-level arms. There’s a reason Davidson hasn’t had a player selected in the top two rounds since Robert Eenhoorn in 1990. (He would go on to play in 37 big-league games.)
Why he could be come July: In a vacuum, Carico has plenty going for him. He seldom whiffs; he generates loft in his swing and has above-average raw power; and he commands the strike zone. Teams certainly have to account for his lacking competition — failure to do so would be foolish — but the demand for good catchers is such that a team is certain to gamble on him. We doubt he’ll end up in the top 30, but don’t be surprised if he’s a, say, top-75 pick.
4. Garret Forrester, 1B, Oregon State
Why he isn’t ranked: Forrester has raked in two seasons at Oregon State, producing a .318/.461/.488 slash line with 16 home runs and 10 more walks than strikeouts. It’s hard to knock his production, but evaluators are concerned by his lack of slugging given that he’s a right-right first baseman.
Why he could be come July: Forrester has elicited some comparisons as a hitter to former Oregon infielder Josh Kasevich, the 60th pick in last July’s draft. Both had impressive contact and zone-management skills, as well as good underlying exit-velocity data. The question was could they turn that into actual power production? Kasevich more than doubled his career home-run total last year en route to a second-round selection. Forrester probably won’t go that far, but showing off more pop would raise his stock.
5. Matthew Etzel, OF, Southern Mississippi
Why he isn’t ranked: Etzel has taken a scenic route to the Golden Eagles lineup. He was originally part of the Texas A&M program, but he later transferred to Panola, a community college in Carthage, Tex. Etzel crushed the competition there over two seasons, batting .391/.469/.634 with 11 home runs and 36 stolen bases. He did the same as part of last summer’s MLB Draft League. Now, he just has to — yeah yeah, we told you to remember this one — do it against better competition.
Why he could be come July: Etzel certainly looks the part of a pro prospect. He’s big and strong, listed at 6-foot-2 and 211 pounds, yet he moves well for his size. His offensive philosophy at present is more geared toward contact, but it shouldn’t come as a surprise if he leans into his raw power over time. Teams have shown a willingness to take Southern Miss hitters relatively early in the draft (Matt Wallner was the 39th pick in 2019), so provided he does what he’s capable of doing at the plate, he should be in the running for an early selection.