The Miami Marlins finished with a Cy Young winner last season in Sandy Alcantara, but the pitcher that most were excited about on their staff heading into last season was Trevor Rogers. After an All-Star appearance in 2021, with a 2.61 ERA, he had a Fantasy baseball ADP within the top 100 overall players in 2022. But Rogers backslid in a big way, finishing with a 4-11 record and 5.47 ERA in 2022 to finish as an unmitigated Fantasy baseball bust.
Rogers is still early in his career and has the physical tools desired in a power pitcher, but where does he fall in 2023 Fantasy baseball rankings? Striking the right balance between proven consistency and untapped potential with your Fantasy pitchers can make all the difference in a winning 2023 Fantasy baseball season. Before going on the clock in any 2023 Fantasy baseball drafts, be sure to see the Fantasy baseball rankings 2023 and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Last season, SportsLine’s Projection Model identified several top Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts, including Reds first baseman Joey Votto. The team at SportsLine was all over Votto as a Fantasy bust from the start after a resurgent 2021 season that saw him going as one of the top 12 first basemen off the board in 2022 Fantasy baseball drafts. After slashing .266/.375/.563 with 36 homers and 99 RBI the year prior, Votto slashed .205/.319/.370 with 11 home runs and 41 RBIs in 2022. He finished outside the top 45 players at his position and anybody who followed SportsLine’s advice avoided a major headache.
Their model is powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. And that same group is sharing its 2023 Fantasy baseball rankings and cheat sheets over at SportsLine, helping you find Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts long before your competition. Their cheat sheets, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day.
Any time more MLB news comes out about the updated 2023 MLB schedule or Fantasy baseball injuries, the team at SportsLine updates its projections. Go to SportsLine now to see these proven Fantasy baseball cheat sheets.
Top 2023 Fantasy baseball sleepers
One of the 2023 Fantasy baseball sleepers the model is all over: Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy. After suffering a partially torn UCL at the end of the 2021 season, Muncy started 2022 behind in his rehab and it showed on the field. He had averaged 35.3 home runs over his previous three full seasons but could only muster nine long balls on a paltry .161 average through July 31 of last year.
However, he picked things back up in August, slugged 12 homers over the last two months and saw his OPS jump from .613 before Aug. 1 to .858 post-Aug. 1. Muncy says his elbow is “right back where it needs to be” entering the 2023 MLB season but he’s still being overlooked in Fantasy baseball drafts 2023. The model has him on par with Atlanta’s Austin Riley at the third base position, but Muncy is being selected three-to-four rounds later, making him a 2023 Fantasy baseball sleeper pick.
Top 2023 Fantasy baseball breakouts
One of the 2023 Fantasy baseball breakouts the model is jumping on: Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes. He had a semi-breakout season last year, crushing 20 home runs after totaling just two between the 2020 and 2021 campaigns. However, there is still plenty of legitimate breakout potential to be uncovered, as Paredes finished with a .205 average and only played in 111 games.
It is going to be tough for the Rays to leave him out of the lineup this season due to the power that he possesses, especially for a team that finished 25th in home runs (139) last year. He was tied with Randy Arozarena for the team-lead in homers, and he also finished sixth in RBI. Paredes was able to do all of that despite not being an everyday starter, giving him breakout potential in 2023.
Top 2023 Fantasy baseball busts
As for players to avoid, the model has pinpointed Brewers pitcher Corbin Burnes as one of its biggest 2023 Fantasy baseball busts. After back-to-back All-Star seasons, Burnes may seem like an unlikely candidate for a drop-off, but the conversation with the Milwaukee ace is more about whether or not he’ll meet expectations equal to his high draft position. Last season, Burnes finished a shade off of his league-leading ERA of 2.43 in 2021, with a 2.94 mark after he led the majors in starts among pitchers, with 33.
Burnes saw a 2% drop in swing-and-miss rate on pitches in the strike zone from 2021, a 3% increase in contact made on pitches in the zone, and a 2.5% increase in barrelled pitches. Similar incremental changes to those categories again this season would stand to push him out of the upper echelon of starting pitchers he’s being drafted alongside this offseason. The model suggests other options like Luis Castillo, Cristian Javier and Max Fried to return similar or better value from a lower average draft position.
How to find proven 2023 Fantasy baseball rankings
SportsLine’s model is also high on a surprising starting pitcher who lands in the top 10 of its positional rankings. This player is barely going off the board in the top 125 picks, but is projected to outperform starters such as Aaron Nola, Shane McClanahan and Brandon Woodruff. This pick could be the difference in winning your league or going home with nothing. You can only see who it is here.
So which 2023 Fantasy baseball busts, breakouts, and sleepers should you target or fade in your drafts? Visit SportsLine now to get 2023 Fantasy baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Joey Votto’s disappointing season, and find out.