On Saturday night, Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards meet in a rubber match for the welterweight championship in the main event of UFC 286. Their previous meeting saw Usman dominate the fight before Edwards scored a knockout with a head kick in the final minute of Round 5, ending Usman’s long reign as champion.
Usman has been the better fighter throughout their previous two meetings, winning nearly every moment of both fights, but it is the Edwards head kick that is the moment that truly stands out in their rivalry.
In the night’s co-main event, Justin Gaethje looks to maintain his status as one of the UFC’s elite lightweights when he takes on rising star Rafael Fiziev. The fight promises to be an exciting all-action fight between two heavy-hitting fighters with the ability to end the fight at any moment.
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With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds from Caesars Sportsbook before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.
UFC 286 fight card, odds
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Kamaru Usman -240 vs. Leon Edwards (c) +200, welterweight championship
Rafael Fiziev -230 vs. Justin Gaethje +190, lightweights
Gunnar Nelson -370 vs. Bryan Barberena +290, welterweights
Casey O’Neill -175 vs. Jennifer Maia +150, women’s flyweights
Marvin Vettori -280 vs. Roman Dolidze +230, middleweights
Jack Shore -500 vs. Makwan Amirkhani +380, featherweights
Omar Morales -110 vs. Chris Duncan -110, middleweights
Sam Patterson -280 vs. Yanal Ashmoz +230, lightweights
Muhammad Mokaev -900 vs. Jafel Filho +600, flyweights
Lerone Murphy -175 vs. Gabriel Santos +150, featherweights
Christian Leroy Duncan -210 vs. Dusko Todorovic +175, middleweights
Jake Hadley -400 vs. Malcolm Gordon +310, flyweights
Joanne Wood -170 vs. Luana Carolina +145, women’s flyweights
Ludovit Klein -190 vs. Jai Herbert +160, lightweights
Julianna Miller -440 vs. Veronica Macedo +350, women’s flyweights
With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer, co-host of “Morning Kombat”), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).
UFC 286 picks, predictions
Campbell Brookhouse Mahjouri Mormile Wise Edwards (c) vs. Usman Usman Usman
Usman
Edwards Usman
Gaethje vs. Fiziev Fiziev Fiziev
Fiziev
Fiziev
Gaethje Nelson vs. Barberena Barberena Nelson Nelson Nelson Barberena O’Neill vs. Maia O’Neill O’Neill
O’Neill
O’Neill
O’Neill
Vettori vs. Dolidze Dolidze Vettori Vettori
Vettori
Vettori
Records to date (2023)
12-3 10-5 11-4 12-3 10-5
Edwards vs. Usman
Campbell: It took Edwards producing a 10-fight unbeaten streak and a dramatic fifth-round knockout of Usman in their rematch last summer for “Rocky” to finally get his due as a legit welterweight title contender (and now a champion). Yet for as inspirational a moment as his stunning head kick turned out to be, Edwards enters the trilogy as the betting underdog once again. And there’s good reason to believe Usman when he said the loss had more to do with him losing focus than anything else after he dominated the three previous rounds before Edwards finished the fight. Usman, even as he closes in on age 36, remains a more dominant grappler and a better overall mixed martial artist than his British rival and has largely proved that over the eight rounds between them. With newfound motivation to regain his title, look for Usman to handle his business as deliberately as possible by backing Edwards up and using the threat of a takedown to open up his striking.
Brookhouse: I think there’s a very legitimate chance Usman was broken by a single kick. We’ve seen plenty of elite fighters who suffered one knockout and were never the same again, especially later on in their career. That said, I just can’t go with Edwards as the pick here. Before that one Edwards kick, Usman had dominated the fight. Edwards looked totally defeated in the corner round after round. What’s more likely here? Usman falls victim to a big one-shot KO or this fight plays out like all but one second of their two prior meetings?
Fiziev vs. Gaethje
Campbell: Armed with a six-fight win streak, including a trio of brutal knockouts, Fiziev might be catching the dangerous Gaethje at just the right time after “The Highlight” twice came up empty in undisputed title bids over the past three years. At 34, and given the incredible mileage accrued in recent years as one of the most exciting and barbaric fighters in UFC history, Gaethje’s inevitable decline will likely happen quickly once it begins. Provided Fiziev is able to keep his distance from the calculated brawler and snipe from the outside, Gaethje’s lack of commitment to his own wrestling attack makes him very hittable in the standup.
Wise: While it is true that the damage accrued by Gaethje is due to catch up with him, getting the brawling brute as an underdog here just feels too juicy to pass up. Fiziev is a well-rounded fighter who can pick away at a distance. But Gaethje tends to bring the fight out of everyone he faces by sheer will. Just ask Charles Oliveira, who many expected to wrestle him to the mat early but instead chose to stand and trade with the former interim titleholder before eventually scoring the submission. Gaethje has a way of making fighters fight his style and until he is truly finished by one of the elite still active, I’ll side with “The Highlight” to produce again.
Nelson vs. Barberena
Campbell: A surprising three-fight win streak, which ended in his submission loss to Rafael dos Anjos last December, gave Barberena the confidence (and job security) to put thoughts on an early retirement aside at age 33. He has become an interesting overachiever as a celebrated brawler who has sharpened his striking enough to surprise veteran fighters like Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown. Even though Nelson is technically a step up in class from Barberena’s recent wins, his own repeated layoffs, which include just one fight in the last three years, have weakened his reputation. Barberena will need to push a pace and lure Nelson into a slugfest, but he has the gas tank and willingness to win the fight due to his high volume and durability.
Brookhouse: Barberena’s wrestling is just not up to the level it needs to be against someone with Nelson’s skills. Nelson is a pest on the feet with his karate-based striking and that will force Barberena into trying to attack with big blitzes. That kind of forward rush just opens up opportunities for Nelson to take the fight to the ground, where this becomes a total mismatch. Barberena coming in on short notice with the deficiencies he has in wrestling and grappling just is not going to walk out of this one with a win.