All the wheeling and dealing, the scheming and screaming, the waiving (of players) and waving (of white flags) comes down to this. Eleven days. Four teams. One guaranteed top-three pick.
While most of the hockey world has its eyes on the race for the Metropolitan Division title, the four-team races for the two wild cards in each conference and the Boston Bruins’ run at the regular-season wins record, four moribund fan bases are focusing on the other end of the standings — a four-team race to the very bottom.
Finishing last in the league does not guarantee a team will be able to draft the franchise-altering talent that is Regina Pats center Connor Bedard. In fact, the team that finishes last still has a 74.5 percent chance of not getting Bedard. But it gives you the best odds available by far. And just as importantly, a dead-last finish assures a team will have no worse than the No. 3 pick, and will walk away from the draft in Nashville with either Bedard, Michigan center Adam Fantilli or Swedish center Leo Carlsson (or Russian winger Matvei Michkov, if time isn’t of the essence).
The Blackhawks, Blue Jackets, Ducks and Sharks have been jockeying for position at the bottom of the NHL standings all season long. At the trade deadline, each of them got worse — Chicago traded Patrick Kane, Columbus traded Vladislav Gavrikov, Anaheim traded John Klingberg and San Jose traded Timo Meier. Heck, the Blackhawks have been working toward this goal since the summer, when they traded away Alex DeBrincat and Kirby Dach, acquired Petr Mrázek as their No. 1 goalie, and let Dylan Strome walk as a free agent.
Suck Hard for Bedard. Be Bad For Bedard. Dishonor for Connor. Whatever your preferred tank hashtag is, the race to the bottom has been — in its own sad way — as fascinating as the playoff races have been. The Arizona Coyotes played themselves out of contention early, with Mullett Magic too much to overcome. The Sharks have stunningly won three in a row, leaving them on the outside looking in. In the past couple of weeks, the Blue Jackets have beaten the playoff-pushing Capitals and Islanders in consecutive games, then took mighty Boston to overtime. The Blackhawks beat the Bruins, then followed it up by knocking off the Predators. They’ve lost eight straight since. The Ducks entered Sunday’s game having lost nine of 10, but that one win? It came over Columbus, the dreaded four-point game.
No, players don’t tank. Everyone is trying to win every night — on the ice, at least. Off the ice, general managers are dreaming of Bedard as their No. 1 center, and owners are dreaming of all those “98” jerseys they’ll be selling in the fall.
So as we hit the home stretch of the most blatant tank season since another Connor was the grand prize, we at The Athletic figured it was time to keep tabs on the tanks. Check back every day for an update on the standings, the road ahead, and how Bedard and Co. are faring.
Standings
Lowest points percentage with first tiebreak being regulation wins and second tiebreaker being regulation/overtime wins (ROW):
32. Blackhawks: .355 points percentage, 16 regulation wins, 22 ROW
Advertisement
31. Ducks: .364 points percentage, 13 regulation wins, 20 ROW
30. Blue Jackets: .368 points percentage, 15 regulation wins, 23 ROW
29. Sharks: .388 points percentage, 16 regulations wins, 21 ROW
Remaining games
Blackhawks 6: Calgary (A), Vancouver (A), Seattle (A), Minnesota (H), Pittsburgh (A), Philadelphia (H)
Blue Jackets 6: Toronto (A), New Jersey (A), New York Rangers (H), Philadelphia (A), Pittsburgh (H), Buffalo (H)
Ducks 5: Edmonton (H), Arizona (A), Colorado (H), Vancouver (H), Los Angeles (H)
Sharks 6: Colorado (H), Colorado (H), Edmonton (H), Winnipeg (A), Calgary (A), Edmonton (A)
Sunday’s results
Blue Jackets 4, Senators 3 (OT): Boone Jenner scored at 14:11 of the third period to tie it, and Kirill Marchenko scored 16 seconds into overtime off a Johnny Gaudreau steal to give Columbus a victory that is pretty seismic in the tank standings. The Blackhawks now have sole possession of 32nd place in terms of both points and points percentage, with a two-point “lead.” The win also gives the Blackhawks the tank tiebreaker for the moment, as the Blue Jackets have one more ROW.
Flames 5, Ducks 4: Anaheim had leads of 2-0 in the first period and 4-3 in the third period, but still lost in regulation to Calgary, keeping the Ducks well within striking distance of Chicago. The Flames’ Milan Lucic tied the game at 6:26 of the third period, and Michael Stone’s blast from the high slot gave Calgary its fourth straight win at 17:22 of the third.
NHL lottery explainer
The worst 11 teams by points percentage are placed in a lottery to determine the draft order. The 32nd-placed team has a 25.5 percent chance at the No. 1 pick, the 31st team a 13.5 percent, 30th 11.5 percent and that continues to drop to three percent for the 11th-placed team. A team can jump spots in the lottery, but it cannot fall more than two spots. In other words, the worst team will not draft later than third overall.
The top-four draft prospect updates
Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli and Carlsson are the unanimous top-four prospects in the 2023 draft. Bedard is the definitive No. 1 prospect. After him, there is some debate on who is the next best prospect. The Athletic’s Corey Pronman ranks Michkov second, Fantilli third and Carlsson fourth.
Advertisement
Connor Bedard: Bedard continues to be Bedard in the WHL playoffs. He’s led the Regina Pats to a 2-0 series lead against the Saskatoon Blades by producing points on eight of 12 goals. He had three goals and two assists in their 6-5 win Sunday.
Matvei Michkov: Michkov’s club season is over. He spent time in the VHL, MHL and KHL in Russia this season. In the KHL, he produced nine goals and 11 assists in 30 games. Russia has some upcoming national team games, and Michkov could be included on that roster.
Adam Fantilli: Fantilli is the first freshman to lead college men’s hockey in points since Kyle Connor did during the 2015-16 season. Fantilli has 29 goals and 35 assists in 35 games. He was named a Hobey Baker finalist last week. He and Michigan will play in the Frozen Four semifinals Thursday.
Leo Carlsson: Carlsson’s season in Sweden continues as he and Orebro are in the SHL semifinals. He had a goal and assist in 13:31 of ice time in Orebro’s 5-2 win over Skelleftea on Friday in the first game of the series. Carlsson has one goal and six assists in eight playoff games.
(Photo: Matt Marton / USA Today)