When Jack Campbell entered Game 4 of the Oilers’ first-round series against the Kings, he did more than bail out his teammates.
Campbell, who made 26 saves on 27 shots in Edmonton’s OT win, became the 22nd goaltender to see playoff minutes so far in 2023. At least three teams have active questions around who will start their next games. Guys are playing well. Guys are playing terribly. Stuff is happening.
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So, sure, it feels like an opportune time to do a wellness check on each team’s situation in net. Here is our highly scientific Goalie Confidence Index, from 1-16. The question is simple enough: How much do you trust your guys?
The Alex Lyon Experience, delightful as it was, seems to have met its end. Florida is home without him — we’re legally bound to point that out in any Lyon-adjacent remarks — but it was always going to take something special against the Bruins, and that’s not what he provided (.902 save percentage, minus-1.0 goals saved above expected) in his less-than-three games on the job. Some of recent history’s more memorable entertaining mediocre play? Absolutely. A lot of bad goals mixed in there, though.
His replacement, good ol’ Sergei Bobrovsky, wasn’t much better in Game 4, stopping 25 of 30 shots and, specifically, whiffing on a glove save that turned into a goal by Jake DeBrusk that put Boston up 4-2 with 11:55 remaining. If the goal is to dig out of a 3-1 series hole against the best regular-season team in league history, the confidence level is 0.0.
It made a whole bunch of sense for New Jersey to take a flier on Vitek Vanecek last summer; they’d just used a seven-goalie death squad to post the worst five-on-five save percentage (.899) in the league. Low-grade competence would’ve sufficed — “Hey, this guy isn’t terrible” — and Vanecek, with a save percentage (.908) and GSAx (-2.85) squarely in the “could be worse” quadrant, certainly provided it.
We know what happened next. Vanecek leveled up a bit, saving more than 13 goals above expected on the season, and thus the Devils leveled up a lot. Competent goaltending can go a long way behind a breakout group of skaters, and the Metropolitan Division’s balance of power shifted accordingly. So far against the Rangers, though, Vanecek has looked more like the guy that short-circuited for the Capitals in the first 20 minutes of the 2022 postseason. No goalie who’s played more than one game has a save percentage within shouting distance of Vanecek’s .828, and his -2.99 GSAx is at the bottom of the bottom, as well.
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Now, heading into Game 4 against the Rangers, it seems like Vanecek has lost the net for the foreseeable future. Akira Schmid was a surprise start for Lindy Ruff in Game 3 and, naturally, was a difference-maker, stopping 35 of 36 shots with a GSAx of 2.7. Chris Kreider only scored once, and it was on a two-on-one! This is progress! Still, though, the Devils’ circumstances — Schmid’s lack of track record, his opponent, the way the series has generally unfolded — make it tough to believe here, even though there was a distinct “random guy goes on a heater” scent wafting from the locker room after Game 3.
Could Campbell, realistically, have been any better for the Oilers on Sunday night? He came in mid-stream and stopped 26 of the 27 shots he faced, including five high-danger chances. Mixed in there was a save on Viktor Arvidsson that, quite literally, saved the game. Might’ve saved the Oilers’ season, too.
soup’s on. a massive stop from jack campbell keeps the oilers in this one. pic.twitter.com/nfOjtufLig — zach (@zjlaing) April 24, 2023
It’s a new series now, as they say. Edmonton was a play or two away from going down 3-1 in the first round after a regular season spent convincing people that they, finally, could be counted on to do nothing of the sort. We know Campbell is capable of a sustained hot streak; he made $25 million based on that fact.
We also know Campbell lost his job to Stuart Skinner for a reason; sustained putridity that stopped Edmonton from looking like a serious contender. Of the 102 goaltenders who played in the NHL this season, only three (Kaapo Kahkonen, Spencer Martin, Elvis Merzlikins) had a worse GSAx than Campbell’s -18.87. He was 88th in save percentage. One game can’t change that. Assuming Campbell starts in Game 5, his margin for error should be non-existent.
13. Kraken
The problem with Philipp Grubauer is not his performance so far against the Avs; he’s sixth in the playoffs with a .914 save percentage and legitimately stole Game 1, stopping 34 of 35 shots and saving nearly three goals above expected. Without that, the Kraken would be on sweep watch. The problem with Grubauer isn’t necessarily his performance in 2022-23, either; he had a few runs of brilliance, particularly in January and March, that earned him the playoff job.
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The problem with Grubauer is that last season, he was as bad a starting goaltender as we’ve seen. Seattle’s Year 1 plan, basically, was to roll out a team half-decent enough to give their big-ticket item a shot. Grubauer’s response was to finish dead last in GSAx, kneecapping the Kraken’s season as quickly as it began. It was the sort of performance that follows a guy, in other words. If you’re comfortable picking Grubauer to come back from a 2-1 deficit, good for you.
If you’ve got a roster that needs sustained excellence in net — we’ll get to one of those shortly — Georgiev might not be your guy. Acquired from the Rangers to be the Avalanche’s plug-and-play starter for the next few seasons (replacing Darcy Kuemper and Grubauer in that role), Georgiev has done his job. A .918 save percentage and 18.7 GSAx in 65 regular-season starts? More than good enough. The Avs, injury issues aside, were still a top-10 team in expected goals against. They needed Georgiev to be solid, but not a ton more than that, and he delivered.
So far against the Kraken, though, he’s been mid-grade; Georgiev hasn’t posted a positive GSAx in the first three games, and his save percentage is .898, so mistakes have been made. In this series, it’s not likely to cost the Avs. Down the line, though, with a roster that’s been hit with serious attrition, in a conference with more Cup-caliber teams than plenty of us assumed, there will come a time when they need more.
At the risk of being unfair to Laurent Brossoit, not many teams with a series lead are on shakier ground overall than the Golden Knights. That’s not just because of Brossoit, who had a strong regular season in limited action (.927 save percentage in 11 games) and played particularly well in Game 2 against the Jets. Logan Thompson is hurt, after all, and Jonathan Quick is backing up Brossoit. None of that is ideal.
But if the point of all this is to win a Stanley Cup — and for the Golden Knights, it certainly is — a 30-year-old career backup isn’t the first guy you’d pick. He isn’t the first guy you’d pick in that series, either. That’s a good team in front of Brossoit, no doubt. He’s got NHL success on his permanent record. It’s not that he isn’t capable. He’s also not a particularly wise pick to pull the whole thing off, even if Vegas closes out the Jets.
10. Islanders
If you liked the Islanders at all — maybe you liked them to upset the Hurricanes, maybe you couldn’t quite get there — Ilya Sorokin was the biggest reason. He spent the regular season keeping his team either in the playoff picture or reeeeal close to it, and when the dust settled, there they were. His 51.36 GSAx was, on balance, something we hadn’t seen since prime Henrik Lundqvist, and the Isles needed nearly of all them.
Now, though, it feels like we’re at the end of the road. Carolina has scratched together enough power-play goals to go up 3-1 in that series. Sorokin has been good, but not otherworldly. And while he’ll deserve every Vezina vote he gets — and, in all likelihood, a few more — picking him to dig out of this hole is too big an ask.
Only one starting goaltender in Leafs-Lightning has improved over the course of the first three games, and it’s probably not the one you’d think. Yep, on some level, it feels unfair to have Ilya Samsonov down this far. The man just outdueled Andrei Vasilevskiy — Andrei Vasilevskiy — in overtime. Coming off a Lightning loss. While playing for the Leafs. Those feel like four strikes.
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So, yeah, those 36 saves on 39 shots count for something. So, too, does the fact that Samsonov got stronger as the game progressed. Eight saves in overtime and a GSAx of 1.23 says a whole lot. Really, most of what Samsonov has done so far this season — he was top 10 among regular goaltenders in save percentage and GSAx — should have him further up the list. But his brutal pre-2023 playoff resume (2-8 record, .907 save percentage, -0.72 GSAx), lack of a viable safety net and a big, blue Sword of Damocles are all in play, too.
8. Hurricanes
Part of the reason Sorokin has been unable to bail the Islanders out? Antti Raanta hasn’t allowed it. Something of a surprise starter for Carolina in Game 1 — he got the nod over Freddie Andersen — Raanta has given the Hurricanes exactly what they needed, starting with a 25-save, 2.1-GSAx performance in Game 1. Carolina won 2-1, avoiding a series-starting loss to an underdog, and Raanta showed that his steady-as-he-goes style was the right move at the right time.
Now, Carolina’s lack of offensive firepower is a) very real and b) a fact that’s been beaten to death. Losing Teuvo Teravainen earlier in the series to an uncalled slash won’t help. But their puck-dominant system, combined with reliably solid play in net, could go a long way toward making up the difference. If nothing else, Raanta is a good bet to close out the Islanders.
7. Kings
It’s hard to say just how high Joonas Korpisalo would’ve pushed the Kings here had they sealed the deal against Edmonton on Sunday night. Blowing a 3-0 lead, then allowing a game-ending quasi-softy to Zach Hyman, was the first real sign of 2021-22 Blue Jackets recidivism we’ve seen from Korpisalo since the Kings acquired him back at the deadline. If that’s the guy the Kings get moving forward, the series will be over in six.
But humor us: He was good in the first three games (.925, .917, .950 save percentages, in order). He was good after the Kings acquired him (.922, 6.54 GSAx in 11 starts). He was pretty good before the Kings acquired him, thanks in part to offseason hip surgery. He has ruined Canadian playoff teams before. And only one guy in the playoffs has done this:
We’re Korpisalo-pilled over here. Not sure how it happened. If the Kings stay out of the box and Korpisalo’s unbelievable play at five-on-five remotely continues (5.41 GSAx), they’re going to have a shot in every game they play. Tough task, though.
6. Wild
They’re in this spot based on the assumption, faulty as it may be, that Dean Evason learned his lesson after Game 2 and won’t roll out Marc-Andre Fleury for one last shot against the Stars. Filip Gustavsson should’ve been the gotta-play-his-way-out guy from the start — yes, I’m aware of the logic; no, I do not care; and no, we’re not going to re-litigate the matter all that much.
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Just let Gustavsson cook. He’s a 25-year-old breakout star with juice to spare, and his worst game of the series — a three-goal loss to Dallas in Game 4, even though he was above water in GSAx — wasn’t as bad as Fleury’s first 90 seconds. Having Fleury around to lighten the workload was a big part of Gustavsson’s success. We’re past that now, though. Time to see what he can do.
5. Lightning
Heading into Game 3 against the Leafs, Vasilevskiy had lost 23 playoff games since 2020. He’d followed 21 of those with a win. Then, he was outdueled by Ilya Samsonov — Ilya Samsonov — in overtime. We sure everything is OK here? Because seeing Vasilevskiy post consecutive playoff save percentages starting with “8” has been a disorienting experience.
He’ll have to do worse than that to play himself any farther down this list, though. The runway is getting short. On Tuesday morning, things might be different. But really, who else in recent NHL history would you rather task with winning three of four games? If any goalie has ever earned “prove me wrong” status, it’s Vasilevskiy. I’m comfortable giving him the benefit of the doubt.
4. Jets
We might be getting a little further into controversial territory here, given that Connor Hellebuyck and the Jets are, y’know, down in their series against the Golden Knights. Hellebuyck’s play in the last two games doesn’t help matters, either. He’s been below average, and that’s not going to work for much longer.
But still, I’m picking him to outplay Brossoit. I’m picking him to steal a game or two. I’m picking him because of how many times he dragged the Jets to a win this season, and I might be picking him because of this tweet.
Hellebuyck is the bumblebee of modern goaltending. Science can’t explain how he flies, but he manages just fine. His puck handling is awful and his skating is subpar, but his big fluffy body somehow always manages to find the flower. — Paul Campbell (@WayToGoPaul) April 21, 2023
3. Stars
All of a sudden, we’re talking about Jake Oettinger again. His start against Minnesota was nothing special; a break-even OT loss in Game 1, a Fleury-and-Evason gift-wrapped win in Game 2, and a dud in Game 3. On Sunday, though, he looked a whole lot more like the guy who almost dragged Dallas past Calgary in 2022.
One wild stat to come out of that game: Oettinger’s .941 playoff save percentage is the highest on record for a goaltender who’s 24 years old or younger. He knows what he’s doing, and he should be treated as such.
2. Bruins
There’s been one blip on the radar for Linus Ullmark so far against the Panthers: a five-goal, 24-save mess in Game 2. Outside of that, his play has been as outstanding as you’d expect, given the regular season he just assembled; three save percentages of .935 or better and a GSAx of 3.44, even when you include Game 2. He was great, he’s been great and he seems likely to be great.
He topped off Game 4 with an assist and a nearly successful request for a crack at Matthew Tkachuk. You can’t ask for anything more.
ULLMARK WANTS BLOOD pic.twitter.com/sd5YvoPyKu — Pete Blackburn (@PeteBlackburn) April 23, 2023
What makes the Bruins stand apart is the quality of their backup. Jeremy Swayman (.920 save percentage, 21 GSAx) would start for several playoff teams, and he’s capable of handling business for the Presidents’ Trophy winner, too.
1. Rangers
It’s a nice indicator of just how great Igor Shesterkin was last season, and just how highly he’s thought of, that he came into the playoffs as a bit of an afterthought. The 12th-best save percentage among regular goaltenders and fifth-best GSAx in the league? Yep. No big deal. Nothing to see here.
Against the Devils, though, he’s snapped back into ultra-elite mode. We’ll start at five-on-five, where he’s putting up a comical .983 save percentage and nearly five goals saved above expected. New Jersey has scored there a grand total of twice. Mix in the power play, and things don’t get much better for the Devils; Shesterkin has the highest save percentage among goaltenders who’ve played in more than one game (.949) and the best GSAx overall (3.67). Expecting that to continue would be unfair, but no goalie has a better chance of making it happen than Shesterkin. And that should terrify the rest of the league. Good luck out there.
(Photo of Andrei Vasilevskiy: Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images)