Joe Sargent/Getty Images
What you’re about to read is something that nobody would have thought, much less written between 2016 and 2022 or even as recently as March 29 of this year.
It’s a good time to be a Pittsburgh Pirates fan.
Honestly, you could even say it’s a great time. The situation surely calls for hyperbole, as in the air right now is news of the Bucs’ record-setting eight-year, $106.8 million contract with All-Star center fielder Bryan Reynolds and, even after a seven-game win streak ended on Tuesday, a 16-8 record that has them in first place in the National League Central.
This is only a four-day stay in first place we’re talking about, but that’s still twice as many days as the Pirates spent in first place throughout 2020, 2021 and 2022 as they were losing a league-high 242 games.
The Pirates are, of course, not the only good team in Major League Baseball right now. Or even the only good team that busts out a celebratory suit jacket when appropriate. But they are the only one of those that also has a victory Pikachu and a home run sword.
“It’s a fun vibe,” outfielder Connor Joe said, according to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “It has been all year. We’re continuing it. We’re dancing. We’re celebrating everything, the small things, the homers. It’s a good vibe in the clubhouse. We’re happy and looking to continue this run.”
With a series against the Los Angeles Dodgers in progress and the Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers due up, the vibes could potentially turn sour in the coming weeks.
This said, it’s not just permissible to merely be rooting for the Pirates. Also permissible is to believe in them.
Their Offense Is Better
Justin K. Aller/Getty Images
Are the Pirates overachieving? Maybe a little.
At plus-24, their run differential is good but not quite “16-8 record” good. Per Pythagorean record and BaseRuns, they should be more like 14-10.
It’s nonetheless significant that neither figure characterizes them as a still-bad team that’s masquerading as a suddenly-good team. It certainly helps that losing ultra-talented shortstop Oneil Cruz to a fractured ankle hasn’t been a death blow to the Pirates’ run-scoring operation. Indeed, they’re one of the top gainers in runs per game from 2022 to 2023:
Graph via Google Sheets
They rank first in the NL in stolen bases and triples and third in doubles, so the Bucs’ speed and aggression on the bases has been a factor. But the proverbial sword is double-edged. They’ve made 10 outs on the bases, with a league-high six at home.
Rather, the secret sauce of this Pirates offense is discipline. It’s not necessarily reflected in their good-not-great 9.7 walk percentage, but they’re second to only the Dodgers in swing rate against pitches outside the strike zone.
“That’s really exhausting,” Joe said, per Mackey, “and it can grind down the opposing pitcher.”
What the Pirates especially excel at is laying off breaking and offspeed pitches that miss the zone. Their 24.9 percent swing rate against those is the lowest in MLB, and it amounts to them shunning pitches against which the league is hitting just .136.
Ultimately, these good swing decisions are begetting good swings. The Pirates offense has the league’s third-highest hard-hit rate. And because their results are underperforming their expected results, this is one area where they’re actually underachieving.
Their Pitching Is Also Better
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images
Think the Pirates offense has improved? Well, wait ’til you get a load of their pitching.
Just within the National League, they’ve jumped nine spots from ranking 13th in runs allowed per game in 2022 to fourth in 2023. Whereas their offense is merely one of the biggest improvers in this department, their pitching is the biggest improver:
Graph via Google Sheets
It’s fishy that Pirates hurlers are doing this even as they aren’t racking up strikeouts or limiting walks. And while they do have a low home run rate at 0.88 per nine innings, it’s suspect in context of a ground-ball rate that’s barely north of 40 percent.
But just as the Pirates are owning the hard-hit leaderboard on offense, they’re likewise doing so on the other side of the ball. At 33.9 percent, their pitchers rank third from the bottom in hard-hit percentage allowed.
There’s more than one good way for pitchers to limit hard contact, but the most straightforward way is to eschew fastballs in favor of breaking and offspeed pitches. It’s all there in the hard-hit rates against the different pitch types:
You might have already guessed where we’re going with this, but, well, only two teams rank below the Pirates in fastball percentage. They just don’t like the darn things.
And, really, why would they? Save for closer David Bednar’s four-seam fastball, the most valuable pitches on Pittsburgh’s staff are breaking and offspeed pitches. Ascendant right-hander Johan Oviedo even has two of them in his curveball and his slider.
Also helping Pirates pitchers’ cause is good defense, especially from an outfield that’s already up to two Outs Above Average. Jack Suwinski’s robbery of Mookie Betts on Tuesday was exceptional, but not really out of character for a Bucs outfielder.
The Pirates Are in the Right Place at the Right Time
AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar
It’s hard to look at the 2023 Pirates without thinking about the 2022 Baltimore Orioles. If the latter drew the blueprint for how to burst out of an ugly rebuild overnight, the former is following it to a T.
Yet if there is a difference between the two clubs, it’s in their divisional surroundings.
The Orioles were a heck of a story amid their 83-win rise last year, but they never spent a day in first place in the American League East and, according to FanGraphs, their chances of winning the division never climbed above zero. It’s a tough thing, sharing a division with the likes of the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays.
The Pirates, on the other hand, have already moved the needle in the race for the NL Central title. Their chances of winning the division have more than tripled since Opening Day, thus turning the race into even more of a toss-up than it already was.
Graph via Google Sheets
Tough these odds aren’t yet convinced that the Bucs are for real, but it’s good enough for now that the convincing process is underway. They just have to keep doing what they’re doing…and yeah, also hope that the bar to clear remains low.
The Pirates Are Playing with House Money Anyway
Andy Lyons/Getty Images
There’s at least one good reason for the Pirates to have a sense of urgency about making the playoffs for the first time since 2015, and it’s Andrew McCutchen.
The 2013 NL MVP’s return to Pittsburgh was an awesome story even before he started the season with an .898 OPS and five home runs. He looks like more than just a veteran presence on a young team. He looks like a key cog on a contender. And considering that he’s 36 and only on a one-year deal, it may well be for the last time.
McCutchen-related urgency aside, however, this really isn’t a “playoffs or bust” year for the Pirates. There’s always next year. And the year after that. Ad infinitum.
Or just about anyway, for which Pirates owner Bob Nutting deserves some credit for what he’s ponied up over the last year. Ke’Bryan Hayes’ eight-year deal will keep him in Pittsburgh through 2029, while Reynolds’ own pact is guaranteed through 2030. And lest we forget, manager Derek Shelton also got a new deal.
Cruz, who’ll hopefully be back before the end of this season, is under club control through 2028. Other hitters the Pirates control for that long include Jack Suwinski, Rodolfo Castro and Jason Delay, while Connor Joe and Mark Mathias are in through 2027.
On the mound, the control windows for Bednar (2026) and right-hander Mitch Keller (2025)—who, by the way, boasts a 2.96 ERA over his last 20 starts—are running short but the same is not true of Oviedo (2027), Roansy Contreras (2028) and Colin Holderman (2028).
And still more building blocks are on the way. The Pirates began this year with our fifth-ranked farm system, consisting of headliners such as catcher Endy Rodriguez and infielder Termarr Johnson. And with the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft theirs to do with as they please, it won’t be long before yet another blue chip joins the mix.
To put it in appropriately nautical terms, the ’23 Pirates are not a little dinghy that has scored a few lucky prizes. They’re a man o’ war whose sails have just caught the wind.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.