The bantamweight division’s present collides with the past when former two-division champion Henry Cejudo challenges Aljamain Sterling in the main event of UFC 288.
The fight is Cejudo’s first since retiring as bantamweight champion in May 2020. Returns from long layoffs and quick turnarounds dominate the storylines heading into UFC 288, which makes the card very complex for those who enjoy placing a wager or two on big events. One of the main card fights, Movsar Evloev vs. Diego Lopes, does not even have a line set at this point because Lopes is stepping in on short notice for Bryce Mitchell, who was set to face Evolev after Evolev replaced Jonathan Pearce.
Despite all the odd factors at play on the card, we’ve done our best to provide our pick for the best bet for each main card fight on Saturday. UFC 287 was our second consecutive rough night of results, going 1-4 to lower our total record for the year to 14-11.
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Let’s take a look at our picks for the best bets on the UFC 288 main card with odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
Kron Gracie vs. Charles Jourdain
Fight to go under 2.5 rounds (-200)
There are some very ugly fights to try and pick this week because of long layoffs or late-notice replacements. That starts with Gracie, who has not fought since an October 2019 decision loss to Cub Swanson. While Gracie and Jourdain don’t have much of a history of suffering stoppage losses, they also have a combined one decision victory between them. If Gracie comes back in fine form and has learned from his decision to not try to grapple Swanson, that could open a path to a submission. If the cage rust shows and Jourdain is able to take control, he may well score a stoppage on the feet. Those listed as the two most likely methods of result for the fight, so rather than making a play on pure speculation of Gracie’s current state, play it safe with the under 2.5 line.
Jessica Andrade vs. Yan Xiaonan
Jessica Andrade ML (-190)
Andrade is coming off a pretty bad loss to Erin Blanchfield, her first loss since 2015 that didn’t come against a woman who has held a UFC title. It’s worth noting that Andrade took that fight on short-notice and experienced a wardrobe malfunction that she claimed distracted her in the course of the fight. Facing Xiaonan with a full camp is a much less daunting task than scrambling to prepare for Blanchfield. Xiaonan is a solid fighter but will struggle against someone as multi-dimensional as Andrade, who can use her striking to set up takedowns where she should be able to control the fight. The Andrade by decision line is intriguing at +200, but it’s not out of play that Andrade can force the stoppage here so we’ll play it safe.
Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns
Fight to go the distance: No (-110)
Like the Gracie vs. Jourdain fight, this is a fight I’d advise passing on. However, this column always provides picks for every fight with odds listed on UFC main cards. These are two dangerous fighters looking to make a big statement, and with Burns having just fought on April 8 and making a quick turnaround for this one, it feels like a short fight is in play. That’s especially true with the fight being set for five rounds. Muhammad isn’t great at scoring stoppages but if Burns fades hard as the fight wears on, it becomes more in play that he finds one. And Burns has the grappling to submit anyone and plenty of power in his hands. Every possible play with this fight is risky, so bet at your own risk here.
Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo
Aljamain Sterling ML (-105)
As with nearly every other fight on the main card, there are so many questions here that it’s probably the smart move to pass on making any play. Cejudo is returning for his fight fight since May 2020, when he retained the bantamweight title with a knockout win over Dominick Cruz. At 36 years old and with three years of rust, is Cejudo the same fighter he was when he was tearing guys up at both flyweight and bantamweight? That feels like a lot to ask. Sterling is a handful in any fight, but he’s especially good at latching onto weaknesses. If he senses that he can wear Cejudo down by forcing extended grappling exchanges, he’ll do that. If he thinks Cejudo is slow on the feet, he might look to exchange more there. It just feels like Sterling is the wrong guy to fight when you’ve been out of action for so long.