It’s too early to make sweeping declarations about the season just yet. We’re not even a full month in, and only one team has even hit the 10-game mark.
But there has been a trend developing that’s continuing to open the year: an increase in power-play scoring. Last year, teams league-wide scored at a rate of 7.17 per 60 on five-on-four advantages. That was an increase from the year prior (6.78) and an even bigger jump from 10 years ago (5.91). To open this season, ahead of Friday night’s games, teams have scored at an impressive rate of 7.46 per 60.
The vibes are impeccable on the power play
What’s behind the gradual increase?
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There are a few factors coming into play.
The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn explored how teams leaning more heavily on their top power-play units has helped production. That’s true this year with some top power-play units. Colorado’s leading five play approximately 70 percent of the available minutes, while Edmonton’s best are on the ice for more than 85 percent of the power-play minutes. The Rangers let their top unit control about 77 percent of the available ice time, while Minnesota’s PP1 is deployed for over 80 percent.
The thinking is simple: Let the best players skate the most ice time when there’s a man advantage for more scoring efficiency.
Another reason for the rise in scoring is where offense is coming from in those minutes. As The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa covered, teams are positioning their best scorers at the flank instead of emphasizing as many shots from the point from defenders. That’s why the Rangers rely on Mika Zibanejad from the left circle instead of Adam Fox from the point, and the Lightning have Steven Stamkos stationed from the same position.
Positional deployment is another influencing factor.
Over the years, the league has trended toward teams using at least four forwards in five-on-five situations. In some cases, in Florida, Boston, St. Louis, and Montreal, a five-forward unit has been experimented with as well. At most per season, only two percent of the league has ever employed that 5F. But the mainstream approach has become rolling with four forwards and one defender.
To be exact, 86 percent of the league is rolling with that composition on five-on-four advantages (and stick taps to Prashanth Iyer for crunching the numbers for us here). That’s a three percent raise from last year, and 43 percent rise from a decade ago. Since the beginning of the data era, this is one number that has continued to trend up — from 34 percent up to this year’s 86 percent.
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With that rise in 4F1D units, there’s also been an overall uptick in goal scoring in five-on-four power-play situations as pictured below (with purple data points showing the highest rates of scoring).
The chart doesn’t necessarily show causality but does show a clear correlation. The work of Matt Cane, now of the New Jersey Devils, did point to this approach leading to more scoring before as many teams bought in.
Why aren’t all teams rolling at least four forwards?
Sometimes, available personnel drives the decision-making. That could be on the rare gutsy teams with a two-way forward who can be trusted to direct play and hold the blue line over a defender who doesn’t fit the role or one without enough forwards to fill out two units.
Some teams simply don’t have four forwards they want for a second unit when there are two puck-moving defenders to skate on the unit. In Colorado’s case, there are three defensemen on the second unit between Sam Girard, Bowen Byram, and Devon Toews. But keep in mind, that unit only plays about 30 percent of the minutes.
But generally speaking in today’s game, a top unit has at least four forwards — and rightfully so since they generally are the best at drawing up offensive plays. While the concern is that opponents have more time and space to clear the puck past one defender, especially if they’re stationed alone at the point, the idea is for the forwards to maintain possession and beat opposing netminders before they have the chance. And that seems to be working quite well, as power-play scoring continues to rise.
The vibes are ageless in Pittsburgh
It was questioned last spring if the Penguins would get one more kick at the can with their current core, considering the expiring contracts of Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang. That’s why management made moves at the deadline, to better the team’s chances of success while their big three were still intact.
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This was answered in July with extensions to both Malkin and Letang, ensuring the core gets three more chances to compete together before Sidney Crosby’s current deal expires. Of course, keeping the team together and getting the results are two different conversations, especially with aging curves in mind. Crosby, Malkin, and Letang aren’t getting any younger and players tend to decline in their mid-to-late 30s. The benefit to all three is that their level is so high to start, so even if they were to decline they would still be better than an above-average skater.
And to start the season, all three have shown that they’re not close to average.
Crosby has four goals and 11 points through seven games. Even without mainstay winger Jake Guentzel in the lineup these last three tilts, the center just keeps on rolling. That’s helped elevate his average game score to 1.97, good for seventh in the league as of Friday. Malkin is excelling on the second line and has one of the best influences on the team’s five-on-five offensive generation. Plus, he’s operating at a point-per-game pace so far. And Letang’s still rolling as the team’s number one, with a team-leading 23:16 average ice time.
The Penguins have a long way to go, and it won’t be surprising if the season starts to wear on their aging stars. But their opening games prove we can’t count out Pittsburgh — especially not with their foundational players still in the mix.
The vibes are better than expected in Philadelphia
It’s been a tough year or so for the Flyers, and much of their offseason didn’t put this team in a position to change that for 2022-23. The hiring of John Tortorella, however, does help.
The Flyers have gotten off to a much better start than anticipated, and a lot of it is thanks to goaltending. Carter Hart leads the league after saving 9.08 goals above expected in all situations. That’s a major reason why they’ve earned 53.5 percent of the goals share at five-on-five despite a lowly scoring rate. But there’s a 14 percent gap between reality and expectations right now, and that may change if Hart can’t sustain this level of play behind one of the tougher workloads in the league.
So while it’s easy to jump at a quintessential Tortorella headline — including this week’s “analytics are trash” — there usually is a lot more than the one line that grabs all the attention. And in this case, it’s that coaching seems to acknowledge the flaws in the Flyers’ current level of play. The team is still trying to actively improve below the surface in front of the blue paint despite the results.
I’ve talked about this for years…ask him (and many ppl tbh) what he thinks of “analytics” you’ll get this. Ask him what he thinks of fundamental concepts analytics has brought to forefront (shot assists / possession / transition / pulling the G) and he’ll agree. https://t.co/NS7UG24oHB — Alison (@AlisonL) October 28, 2022
The learning process, and implementation of a more sustainable system, seems to be the priority at the end of the day. That should help the Flyers meet Hart in the middle when his play trends in the wrong direction, and instill some longer-term stability even if the wins start to fade.
The vibes are TBD in Arizona
Look, it’s easy to dunk on the Coyotes. The league makes it easy, as does ownership. Arizona’s revenues are going to be higher? Well, it helps that the operating costs are so much lower! The ticket prices are also ridiculously high for a team that:
1. Struggles with attendance in general.
2. Isn’t very good.
That being said, the Coyotes have to make the best of this situation. So before we all rush to judgment after Game 1, let’s give it a shot.
Of course, there are negatives. Arizona doesn’t get top billing at center ice, with ASU’s logo there as well, but it could be worse. Some awkward combined logo, or nothing for the Coyotes, is the alternative.
But there’s potential to really lean into the college atmosphere and make the best of it. That’s why the inclusion of a student section with lower prices is so important. The drumline adds an aspect of fun, too. So many NCAA games have such a vibrant atmosphere that’s infectious. It’s hard not to get wrapped up in the hype.
Coyotes president Xavier Gutierrez says there will be 200-400 tickets set aside for Arizona State students, priced at $25. They’ll sit in the usual student section. There also will be a drumline, adding to the collegiate atmosphere. — Mark Lazerus (@MarkLazerus) October 27, 2022
If Arizona can find a way to channel that, and make this feel like the intimate experience it is given the capacity, then this really could be something interesting. The drawback, honestly, is how low the capacity is. Something closer to the 7,000 or 10,000 variety would obviously have a bit more pop. But there’s still a way to make this 5,026-person arena a hot spot to go enjoy a game. Until the Coyotes fail at doing that, there’s no reason to root for their downfall — even if the league can make all of us roll our eyes at their positive spin of the situation.
But the players deserve better. They didn’t ask for this, but they are stuck with the reality for the time being. Maybe this can end up being a better experience at Mullet Arena than anyone anticipated, and give some inspiration on how to improve the vibes at an NHL game — closer to those at a college game or even in Europe. The NHL isn’t perfect, so any opportunity to trend up should be taken fully.
The vibes are still bad in Vancouver
We’ve softened from putrid to bad after the Canucks finally earned their first win of the season on Thursday night against the Kraken. That said, it wasn’t an easy win by any stretch. The team almost blew it once again at the end. If not for a J.T. Miller shot block (yes, I’m surprised as all of you after watching his defending on some of the goals against to start the year), the conversation would be a lot different.
Instead, this section would have been about newly paid Miller’s saltiness, lackluster defense and bland offense when the team clearly craves it.
It would have been about how the defense isn’t creating offense, how there are far too many turnovers in their own zone, and how much the team spirals after making mistakes. And, of course, it would have been about how the team hasn’t been getting the timely saves expected from Thatcher Demko. I really don’t need to write about all of that because Cam Charron already did such an excellent job of it on Thursday.
While writing this very section, the Canucks made a trade for Ethan Bear — a player who deserved more of a shot than he got with the Hurricanes. He’s the type of player — a puck-moving defenseman who can bring the spark to blue line — that Vancouver has been missing. No, he’s not the answer alone. The team still needs Quinn Hughes to take another step forward at five-on-five and Oliver Ekman-Larsson to clean up his game, among other tweaks on defense as well.
But this is a step in the right direction because the personnel on the blue line was flawed from Day 1 of this season. Maybe management getting activated will start to wake up the rest of the team so they aren’t being outplayed on a nightly basis. There’s quite a bit of work to do in Vancouver to get this team back on track, and the clock is ticking. A team can’t win a playoff spot just yet, but they can lose it especially when they weren’t one of the true contenders to begin with.
✨October Stars✨
It’s been a fun month of hockey to open the 2022-23 season, and the stars are shining early. There were quite a few contenders. Jake Oettinger has been fantastic between the pipes in Dallas, saving 8.89 goals above expected through his first six games. David Pastrnak is thriving in Boston, and is a key reason for their early success. Crosby’s in the mix too, for all the reasons stated above. Connor McDavid is above just star caliber. But here are our final three.
Andrei Svechnikov is thriving to open the season and is proving to be everything the Hurricanes needed to punch up their offense. Ahead of Friday’s matchup versus the Islanders, he ranked second in the league with a 2.3 game score. Svechnikov is bringing the finishing and oomph the Hurricanes have been missing, with seven goals over his first six games.
Add in his two assists, and all nine of his points have been primary this season. If there were any questions about how Carolina’s second line would manage without Vincent Trocheck, he’s answering them — and so his is linemate Marty Necas who seems to finally be hitting his stride. That line, centered by Jesperi Kotkanemi, has earned a 73.8 expected goals rate over their first six games and outscored opponents 5-0.
Jesper Bratt’s picked up where he left off last year in New Jersey. The forward only signed for a year when his contract expired, which should open the door for a greater raise this summer if he keeps it up. Last year, Bratt was arguably the Devils’ most consistent and valuable player. The winger is a force on both ends of the ice, is excellent in transition and can beat opponents with his set ups and his shot creation. So far this season, the Devils are playing so well on both ends of the ice at five-on-five, and Bratt is a key part of it. With him deployed, New Jersey is creating 4.15 expected goals for per 60 which is 52 percent(!) above league average. And they’re allowing very little back in their own zone, especially from the quality areas.
Rounding out the top three is Dahlin. The defender’s game score dropped quite a bit after a disappointing game against the Sabres, but his performance otherwise is worthy of praise. High expectations come with being the No. 1 pick, and overreactions come with slow development. But Dahlin finally is hitting his stride from a scoring and play-driving standpoint. Through seven games, he’s earned a 54.2 percent expected goals rate. His on-ice presence helps boost the Buffalo’s expected goal rate 0.42 per 60 relative to his teammates, which as Luszczyszyn pointed out in this week’s 16 Stats, rates highly among top defenders.
If Dahlin can keep up his strong start, which includes the hurdle of losing his mainstay partner Mattias Samuelsson to injury, it may finally be the breakout year the Sabres have been waiting for.
Data collected prior to Friday night’s matchups, via Evolving-Hockey, Prashanth Iyer, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, AllThreeZones, and NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Photo of Sidney Crosby: Sergei Belski / USA Today)