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There is rarely any panic around the Pittsburgh Penguins, but a six-game losing streak has the Pens in a tight spot, even if we’re still in the early stages of the NHL regular season. Pittsburgh has made the postseason 16 years on the bounce and was considered one of the favorites in the Metropolitan Division in 2022-23, but the Pens are 10 points adrift of the pace-setting New Jersey Devils and five points out of a playoff spot.
Wednesday’s game against the Capitals isn’t a must-win for the Pens, but the temperature is pretty hot on a team that’s not used to having much pressure on it early in the season.
The Penguins are -128 road favorites over the Caps on Wednesday. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET and the game will be broadcast on NHL Network.
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Penguins vs. Capitals prediction
The Capitals, too, are in a bit of mud. Washington won a thrilling contest against the Oilers on Monday night, but the Caps are sitting at 6-6-2 with a -2 goal differential through 14 games. Like the Pens, Washington is not used to having a lot of pressure build up before the holidays, but there is some mounting on a club that has missed the postseason just once since 2007-08.
Part of the pressure on Washington is a mounting injury list. The Caps were already without Tom Wilson and Nicklas Backstrom, two key forwards in their top-six, but have also lost both of their top-pair defenseman (John Carlson, Dmitry Orlov), as well as forwards TJ Oshie and Connor Brown. Orlov is questionable for Wednesday’s contest with the Penguins, but everyone else is out.
The lack of depth has shown up in the numbers for the Caps, who currently sport an even goal differential at 5-on-5 and are 25th in the NHL with a 46.3% expected goals rate.
An image from the Capitals and Penguins’ showdown from 2021-22 Getty Images
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Washington has never been a team to dominate the 5-on-5 battle or own the shot clock, but it’s rarely an issue for this team since it can outscore mediocre play-driving metrics thanks to the scoring talent on the roster. But with a lot of that offensive talent on the shelf, there’s much more pressure on the Capitals to control the game and out-create their opposition.
That won’t be easy against the Penguins, who despite their struggles, have generally tilted the ice in the right direction. Pittsburgh ranks fifth in expected goals rate and fourth in high-danger scoring chance percentage so far this season.
Pittsburgh’s 5-on-5 play and depth should be the difference on Wednesday night. Even as a road favorite, the Pens are the value side against the Caps.
Penguins vs. Capitals pick
Penguins -128 (FanDuel)