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Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic opined last week that he believes that Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras will likely open free agency looking to get a deal in the range of the 11-year, $350 million extension that Manny Machado agreed to with the San Diego Padres prior to the 2023 campaign.
First of all, it’s fair to wonder how well that deal for Machado—which runs through his age-40 season—will age. Second of all, Machado was a much better player in the three seasons prior to the extension than Bregman has been since the start of the 2022 season.
Machado 2020-2022: .291 batting average, .881 OPS, 14.2 WAR
Bregman 2022-2024: .260 batting average, .798 OPS, 14.0 WAR
Mind you, while those WAR numbers may look similar, the first of those three seasons for Machado was the pandemic-shortened 2020 season that saw just a 60-game slate. And he still topped the overall WAR of Bregman, who had three full seasons leading up to his chance to get a new contract.
The guess here is that Bregman won’t sniff Machado in terms of years or overall dollars. Still, he’s going to get paid handsomely. At B/R, we’ve projected a five-year, $130 million deal with a $26 million club option for the 2030 season. That’s on the low end of predictions. MLB Trade Rumors predicted a seven-year, $182 million pact.
Bregman is still a productive player, as evidenced by the .795 OPS he’s posted over the last five seasons. But he’s not the Hall of Fame-level hitter he appeared to be between 2018 and 2019 when he posted a .970 OPS.