The calendar has flipped to December, Thanksgiving is in the rearview mirror and nearly every NHL team has passed the quarter mark of their season. Lots of hockey is left to be played, but the “it’s early, don’t worry” plea is becoming less and less of a valid reassurance for underperforming clubs.
Advertisement
Many teams are in that situation, falling short of expectations. Forget just playoff contenders, there are organizations with legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations who are on the outside looking in right now. Coaches are on the hot seat, fan bases are panicking and in some cases, there might be a drastic change in direction if the train doesn’t get back on track.
No playoff contender has dug itself an insurmountable hole — the margin between being in or out is razor thin right now — but the temperature is inching higher. Let’s analyze playoff contenders outside the bar to see what’s gone wrong and rate them from one to five for how worried they should be (1 meaning not worried, 5 meaning full panic mode).
Since teams have played an uneven number of games, we’re going to sort by points percentage instead of raw points (that means Minnesota will draw into a playoff spot and Calgary will be out in the Western Conference wild card).
Record: 11-9-4
What’s gone wrong: The Rangers were tied with the second-best betting odds of winning the Metropolitan Division on the heels of a trip to the Eastern Conference final. Instead, they find themselves fifth in the Metro, behind both of their in-state rivals, the Devils and Islanders.
Igor Shesterkin was superhuman in 2021-22, putting together one of the best goaltending campaigns in NHL history, but he’s come back down to Earth. He hasn’t been bad, but the .913 save percentage he’s managed ranks 24th among goalies with at least seven games played this season. Jaroslav Halak was mightily struggling as the backup with an .881 save percentage and 0-5-1 record before authoring a brilliant performance on Wednesday against the Senators to pick up his first win.
Igor Shesterkin. (Vincent Carchietta / USA Today)
New York’s power play looked unstoppable last year but it’s ranked 19th in the league this season.
Advertisement
The Rangers have also built a nasty habit of blowing leads. They coughed up a 3-0 advantage in the third period for a regulation loss against the Oilers last Saturday and followed that up the next game by blowing an early 2-0 lead against the Devils. New York lost two other games earlier in the month where they blew multi-goal third-period leads.
New York’s bottom two pairs have underperformed. Jacob Trouba’s looked off and the No. 6 spot on the left side has been in a state of flux.
Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider are the club’s only high-end wingers in part because Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafrenière still haven’t broken out.
Outlook: Teams that rely on an elite power play and out-of-this-world goaltending instead of a stable foundation built on controlling five-on-five play are usually at a higher risk of taking a step back.
Elite talents like Connor Hellebuyck (.910 save percentage last season) and Carey Price (.900 in 2017-18) have played average or only decent for an entire season before so it’s not a given that Shesterkin will immediately return to elite form even if he has the talent to do exactly that. New York’s in big trouble if Shesterkin’s average form persists.
The power play, on the other hand, should theoretically resurge at some point. It’s become a little too predictable but there’s too much elite talent on the first unit for it to not adapt.
I wouldn’t be panicking yet, but there are plenty of reasons to be concerned and feel unsure.
Panic meter: 3/5
Record: 10-9-4
What’s gone wrong: Florida’s in the middle of a spiral, having dropped six of its last seven games.
The Panthers haven’t fully gelled under Paul Maurice, can’t win the extra point when games go past 60 minutes (1-4 record in overtime/shootouts) and have really missed Alex Barkov, who’s missed the last few games with an illness.
Advertisement
Florida’s biggest problem right now is special teams. The Panthers’ power play was fifth best in the NHL last season but sits 25th right now and the penalty kill hasn’t been much better.
Sergei Bobrovsky has totally imploded since late October. He and Spencer Knight have split games pretty evenly to this point, but Maurice needs to start riding Knight.
The blue line’s also a weakness. MacKenzie Weegar’s departure hurts and Aaron Ekblad’s defensive form hasn’t been good enough when he’s been in the lineup. Ekblad’s surrendered five-on-five shots, high-danger chances and goals against at the highest rate of all Panthers defenders this season.
The fourth line has room for improvement as well. Eric Staal is pointless in 16 games and has been outscored 7-2 in his five-on-five minutes.
Outlook: There’s so much elite scoring talent that a turnaround on the power play should be a freebie. That alone will solve a lot of problems because the Panthers have a plus-six goal differential at five-on-five in addition to some of the most dominant underlying numbers in the league. Knight’s been solid and continues getting better which should help stabilize the goaltending.
The situation looks bad right now but the Panthers are such a strong even-strength team that I’d bet on them rising.
Panic meter: 1.5/5
Record: 10-11-3
What’s gone wrong: Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson and Carl Hagelin haven’t played a single game yet. Connor Brown is done for the season after an ACL surgery, while T.J. Oshie’s returned but missed 11 games earlier in the year. Dmitry Orlov has been out since early November.
Injuries and age are simply catching up with the Capitals. It hasn’t helped that their power play is only 20th in the league.
The forward injuries and struggling power play have left Washington with a muted offensive attack.
John Carlson’s delivering reliable offence as usual but continues to lead the top pair to questionable defensive results. Carlson’s allowed high-danger chances and goals against at the highest rate of all Caps defenders at five-on-five.
Outlook: Backstrom and Wilson have been skating but neither has participated with the team in formal practice which suggests their returns aren’t imminent. There are just too many forward injuries and not enough high-end offensive skill beyond Alex Ovechkin.
The competition to make up ground is also very fierce. The Metro is the toughest division in hockey and the East as a whole has too many quality competitors. Washington’s blue line will get a boost with Orlov’s return and Darcy Kuemper has been solid between the pipes, so those are positive signs, but the uphill climb may be too steep.
Panic meter: 4/5
Ottawa Senators
Record: 8-13-1
What’s gone wrong: Ottawa wasn’t necessarily expected to make the playoffs, but the club needed to be in the race and show a decisive step forward after GM Pierre Dorion’s aggressive offseason. Instead, the Senators have made company with the Connor Bedard tank contenders.
The blue line’s been troublesome, especially when Artem Zub was hurt. Travis Hamonic, for example, should not be having to play top-four minutes at this stage in his career.
Ottawa’s special teams and goaltending have been ordinary, too. Josh Norris’ injury has created a major top-six hole down the middle.
Outlook: The Sens have honestly played a lot better than their record would indicate. They play with speed, control games fairly well at even strength and have lost many close one-goal games where they deserved a better fate. That bad luck will reverse — they aren’t legitimate contenders for a top-three pick — but the blue line is too flawed and the standings hole they’ve dug is too deep for them to realistically make the playoffs.
Panic meter: 5/5
Senators goalie Cam Talbot makes a save on Rangers’ Vincent Trocheck. (Marc DesRosiers / USA Today)
Calgary Flames
Record: 10-9-3
What’s gone wrong: The Flames own the second wild-card spot by raw points but slip out of it by points percentage to the Wild. Calgary’s lacking a dynamic top-end offensive punch right now. Jonathan Huberdeau’s only notched 12 points in 19 games and while Tyler Toffoli’s a great player off to a strong start, it doesn’t bode well when your leading point producer only has 16 points in 22 games.
The power play in particular is off to a troubling start, ranking 22nd in the league.
Jacob Markstrom’s been leaky as well, rocking just an .889 save percentage.
Outlook: Calgary’s a really high-quality team on paper and should stabilize. The Flames are adjusting to a ton of change with their core which can sometimes take time to fully click. They also had one of the toughest schedules in the league to open the season — it’s going to be easier sledding the rest of the way.
Ultimately, this is a team with excellent centre depth (Elias Lindholm, Nazem Kadri, Mikael Backlund), an elite winger in Huberdeau that will work out of his slump, one of the best top fours in the NHL with Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson, Chris Tanev and MacKenzie Weegar, and Markstrom, who was a Vezina finalist last season.
The Flames are still driving even-strength play, with their 53.9 percent five-on-five shot attempt differential ranking fourth best in the NHL.
Goaltending-wise, you might not be able to guarantee that a .913 save percentage netminder like Shesterkin will immediately return to elite form, but you should feel pretty confident that a sub .890 Markstrom will at least become competent again, which would give the Flames a significant boost.
The Western Conference is also noticeably weaker than the East which gives Calgary a greater margin for error as they figure things out.
Panic meter: 1/5
Record: 10-9-2
What’s gone wrong: Nashville ranks 30th in the NHL in terms of its all-situations goals for rate. Why? Well, right off the bat, Matt Duchene, Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen have all seen their production decline after playing some of the best years of their respective careers last season. It’s not that they’ve been bad, they just aren’t packing the same elite punch they used to.
The scoring issues at the top end have been exacerbated because some of their young talent hasn’t contributed enough. Tanner Jeannot scored 24 goals last season but has registered just five points so far. Philip Tomasino went from impressively producing 32 points in a limited role as a rookie to being demoted to the AHL. Eeli Tolvanen and Cody Glass haven’t taken much of a step either.
Nashville’s power play has also been anemic.
The inability to score goals was especially problematic early in the season when Juuse Saros was struggling, although he’s rebounded and is really starting to roll now.
Outlook: Saros finding his groove is a great sign. On the other hand, the back end’s not as formidable as I thought it may be. Ryan McDonagh hasn’t had the smoothest transition as the Predators have been outshot and outchanced by wide margins when he’s been on the ice.
It’s also fair to wonder how the team will solve its goal-scoring woes.
My biggest concern is that last year’s playoff push relied on the top skaters plus Saros playing to the absolute peak of their potential. Sure, if they can replicate that, a postseason ticket will be earned, but it feels like a lot of things have to break their way for that to occur.
Panic meter: 3.5/5
Record: 11-11-0
What’s gone wrong: Jordan Binnington has been left out to dry in pretty much all defensive situations. The Blues have made it too easy for opponents to access the inside uncontested. St. Louis’ penalty kill is 29th in the NHL and the club hasn’t defended much better at even strength either.
The blue line lacks high-end talent. Colton Parayko’s up-and-down play has continued. He’s driven just a 44.8 percent share of shot attempts and has been outscored 18-7 during his five-on-five minutes. Torey Krug has been inconsistent and while Nick Leddy hasn’t necessarily been an issue, he simply shouldn’t be a top-pair defender on a contending team.
St. Louis’ top nine hasn’t quite been the same offensively either. David Perron’s departure hurts — it has especially impacted Ryan O’Reilly — and the team as a whole had some tough finishing luck, especially in the early going.
Outlook: The Blues are honestly a really tough team to evaluate in part because of the volatile swings they’ve been on.
They lost eight in a row at one point, immediately followed that up with a seven-game win streak and have dropped three of four games since. You still see glimpses of the special offensive attack that made them a force to be reckoned with in the regular season and the veteran resilience which gave the Avalanche a tough series.
It is concerning how often they’ve been outshot and outchanced at even strength this season. Binnington’s resurgence — he’s been much better than his .900 save percentage would indicate — provides hope they can get fight back into a playoff spot. But ultimately the club’s defensive lapses and blue line holes are a red flag.
Panic meter: 3.5/5
Record: 9-11-3
What’s gone wrong: Vancouver’s penalty kill is one of the worst in the league for a second consecutive season. The Canucks have been almost equally permissive at even strength where they’ve surrendered rush chances, backdoor tap-ins and easy rebound goals with alarming regularity. The back end desperately lacks bona fide top-four talent beyond Quinn Hughes, especially with Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Tyler Myers’ two-way play regressing.
Thatcher Demko was able to paper over the team’s defensive deficiencies for long stretches last season but he’s managed just an .885 save percentage.
The Canucks have also blown a ton of multi-goal leads.
Outlook: The West is weak enough that the Canucks aren’t too far behind the pack yet but there are plenty of concerns. Sure, the team has some gifted offensive pieces, especially on the power play, but the roster’s two-way details and habits — in terms of net-front coverage, puck battles, and in-zone defensive reads — don’t look the part of a playoff team.
Even the Canucks’ recent stretch where they picked up five of six wins before Tuesday’s loss against the Capitals wasn’t built on sustainable foundation as the club was carrying a 42 percent five-on-five expected goal share and riding the best shooting percentage in the NHL.
Demko should play better at some point which will help and there’s too much talent for the club to really bottom out. But there are too many question marks with the penalty kill, blue line and the club’s overall five-on-five form to feel confident about their playoff chances.
Panic meter: 4/5
(Top photo of the Calgary Flames: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)