A logistical curveball hit the ATX Open when Madison Keys surged into the Top 10, threatening to displace Jessica Pegula, the tournament’s other marquee player. Rules dictate only one Top 10 participant at a WTA 250 event. Pegula, aware Keys “did want to come play here,” braced for a potential exit. Now, with Keys absent, Pegula is just two wins away from her first 2025 title, facing Ajla Tomljanović in a highly anticipated semifinal. If Pegula wins this match, she will reach her second final in the 2025 season. What are the odds for that?
Jessica Pegula vs Ajla Tomljanović: Preview
In her previous match, Pegula took less than an hour to seal the deal against her Russian opponent, Anna Blinkova. She defeated Blinkova by 6-2, 6-2 in the QF!
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USA Today via Reuters Oct 10, 2021; Indian Wells, CA, USA; Jessica Pegula (USA) hits a shot against Jasmine Paolini (ITA) at Indian Wells Tennis Garden. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports| Courtesy: Reuters
Ajla Tomljanović has struggled a bit in her previous tournaments this season. However, in Austin, she has showcased a fair bit of resilience in her previous matches. Tomljanovic defeated Japan’s Ena Shibahara by 7-5,3-6,7-6(8) in QF.
Pegula vs Tomljanovic: Head-to-Head
Jessica Pegula and Ajla Tomljanović have met each other three times in their careers before. Currently, the Aussie has a lead of 2-1 over the American in the H2H record.
2024 United Cup Group Stage: Pegula 7-6)6),6-3.
2011 Clearwater R16: Tomljanovic 6(4)-7,6-3,6-2.
2009 Rock Hill Qualifying R1: Tomljanovic 6-4,6-1.
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Prediction: Pegula will win this match in straight sets
With this win in the previous round, Jessica Pegula has now matched the best performance by an American in the three-year history of the ATX Open. Previously, we saw that Danielle Collins and Katie Volynets reached the SF in the inaugural 2023 edition. Pegula is always a threat on the hard courts, so beating her here in front of her home fans won’t be easy. If we take a look at the numbers, Pegula (4) currently has a win-loss record of 11-4 this season, while Tomljanovic (111) has only recorded 4-2 so far this season.
Talking about their playing styles, Ajla Tomljanović is known for her smart, aggressive brand of tennis. She heavily relies on her solid serves and strong backhand to earn points against her opponents. Tomljanovic also has an incredible backhand, but her biggest weakness has been the high number of double fault counts. Even this season, she has hit nearly 6 aces so far but has already committed at least 16 double faults!
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On the other side, Jessica Pegula is regarded as one of the most tactically intelligent players on the Tour. She loves playing an aggressive brand of tennis, and her game usually comprises strong groundstrokes. Pegula loves utilizing her wide wingspan to full effect in her matches, and her favorite shot is the backhand down the line. Apart from that, the 2024 US Open finalist also has a decent return game.
So, considering all these aspects in her game, Pegula has more weapons to seal the deal in this epic battle in Austin!