The shift is dead. MLB wants more singles. More rallies. Less waiting around for homers.
Love it or not, there are players who are going to benefit from the new rules. We’re looking for ground-ball hitters (75th percentile or better) who have strikeout rates below 20%, the top half of qualifiers. And we want home-to-first speed in the 75th percentile or greater, too.
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I leave it to you to strategize how to attack batting average. My approach is to pay for it for about half my picks while attacking power with the other picks, hoping to get lucky and finish in the top four rather than the middle of the league. I feel the players noted here make that more of a plan than mere chance.
Ground-ball hitters are going to be light in homers, no doubt. But they are more attractive than they have been in recent years because we’re going back to the era where ground balls led to higher batting averages, especially when they are fast and can beat out some infield hits.
Let’s go cheapest first and start for a guy who made our “hidden steal upside” article, too. For the life of me, I don’t understand why Luis Rengifo, slated to start at shortstop for the Angels, is not even drafted in mixed leagues. He’d be a pocket pick for me in 12 teamers if I was waiting on my last middle infielder, and he’s actually a reason to employ this draft strategy. His BABIP last year was .285 and I bet it’s .310 this year, at least. That would raise his average to about .290 based on last year’s data.
Brandon Nimmo should get a similar bump. He had a .317 BABIP but previously he was at .345. If that was the case last year, Nimmo would have hit .294. He’s projected this year to hit .268. I bet he shatters that projection. Nimmo is also on our sneaky steals list so make sure you get him at ADP 168 or so. Lots of free loot here.
Tommy Edman is next, and he’s viewed as a drag in batting average and power at a composite average projection of .260. But his BABIP last year was .308. I’d give him .330, minimum, with the new rules. Again, the idea is to take him at ADP so if we’re right, it’s all profit. That’s about seven or eight more hits, making him about a .280 hitter. Remember, averages are up, generally, so .280 isn’t as valuable in 2023 as it was in 2022, but it’s still going to be a plus. Most of the batting average gains will go to guys like Edman.
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Thairo Estrada, like Edman, fills a middle-infield spot with speed but his consensus average projection is just .264. He was shifted to death last year with a BABIP of .290. It should be at least 20 points higher with the new rules. So 15 homers, 25 steals with the new rules that encourage more of those, and .280 is a reasonable projection for me. And it’s costing you only pick 157 on average. Buy that.
Amed Rosario has infield and (in some places) outfield eligibility and is expected to hit for a solid average, but his average actually could be great with the new rules. More like .300 than .280. And Rosario’s average is more valuable given the paucity of walks. I notice that most of these guys noted here are projected to hit for a lower average in 2023 than 2022, which is ridiculous on its face. He’s a bargain at pick No. 123 on average.
Starling Marte is sliding due to his recovery from surgery on both groins. But he’s expected to return to full health. How fast he will be when he returns is open to some question though. His BABIP has been as high as .380 (it was .340 last year and .372 in 2021). Let’s say it goes back to .380 with the new rules and repaired groins. Last year, he would have hit .320 and not .292. He can just crush it in batting average in 2023 with his recent ADP at No. 88 overall.
Also note that none of these guys are zeros in power, far from it actually. And all but Nimmo offer speed, but Nimmo should steal at least 10 bags with the new rules, too.
(Top photo: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports)