1 of 6
Katherine Gawlik/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Carolina Hurricanes are off to one of the best starts in the NHL, and Martin Necas is one of their top players so far.
Through Saturday’s action, he is already up to 23 points in his first 15 games, including eight goals.
The Hurricanes winning games and Necas being a productive part of that is nothing out of the ordinary. Carolina has been a Stanley Cup contender for more than six years, and Necas has been a solid contributor on those teams.
But he has never really produced at a rate quite like this.
If he were to maintain this same level of play over 82 games, he would be on a pace for 125 points and 50 goals. Those are not just strong numbers…those are Connor McDavid/MVP-level numbers.
That just does not seem like something that he will continue, especially when so much of his early production has been percentage-driven. For instance, he is scoring on more than 27 percent of his shots, and the Hurricanes are scoring on more than 17 percent of their total shots when he is on the ice.
It is unlikely those two percentages continue on those paces.
Necas is only a 12 percent shooter for himself in his career, while the Hurricanes have consistently scored on around 10 percent of their total shots when he is on the ice.
While the Hurricanes have hoped for players like Necas to break out and take a star turn offensively, and while he is right in the middle of what should be at a peak-age season, there seems to be room for a percentage regression to kick in at some point. The Hurricanes have always been a team that relies on shot volume rather than high percentages.
Sooner or later Necas is going to get closer to more normal numbers on an individual and team level. He will continue to be a good player, and he might even end up setting new career highs in goals and points (his current highs are 28 goals and 71 points), but do not expect him to continue on a 50-goal, 125-point pace. He is good. He is not quite that good.