Here’s the playoff Scouting Notebook, where I look at the teams that are recently deceased with an eye toward next year and examine the still living for the remaining matchup(s), but for 2023, too.
Let’s start with the losers in each game before addressing the team moving on, game by game.
The Jaguars are the classic “they’ll be back” team and if I had a dollar for every “they’ll be back” team that never made it back, I’d be a rich man. Look, this was their moment with Patrick Mahomes banged up, and they failed to capitalize. They ran the ball very well and abandoned it for some reason. When you average 7.6 yards per rush and 5.0 per pass, why are you running 19 times and throwing 41? It’s a mystery.
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When you’re playing a hobbled Mahomes, just take what the defense is giving you. The game is not going to be a shootout.
Trevor Lawrence was very inefficient in a game where that could not happen, not against a Kansas City defense that is not dominant. But he’s a better than average QB with a generally good offensive playcaller in a QB-friendly scheme with a bevy of good, but not great, weapons (including Calvin Ridley next season). Of all the fantasy players on this roster, I do think Lawrence will provide the best value as a possible Top 5 overall QB.
Mahomes is obviously great and maybe the greatest ever. But playing with a high ankle sprain in the cold in Kansas City is going to be a very tall order. I doubt the Bengals will be as generous as the Jaguars were in never going after Mahomes and forcing him to move off his spot.
I also expect them to bracket Travis Kelce and chip him so as to disrupt the timing with Mahomes, who is probably not going to be mobile enough to extend plays.
If you do that, what is there in this offense? I was wrong about Isiah Pacheco, who is a tough and explosive runner even though he never sets up blocks.
Jerick McKinnon not catching a pass is an upset, but he was needed in pass protection after the injury to Mahomes.
Kadarius Toney must not know the plays and/or be able to run routes because how he’s not getting the majority of snaps in this WR corps is a huge mystery otherwise. His snap share versus Jacksonville was 29%.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is average, at best, and should not be re-signed in the offseason. You have to do better. But he’s an All-Pro compared with the veritably worthless Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Yes, the Chiefs had 7,000 yards due to Mahomes’ brilliance but you have to give him at least average talent outside of Kelce, who is going to be 34.
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I tweeted that the Giants can cripple the franchise by either signing Daniel Jones to a franchise deal or not signing him — the choice is theirs. And that’s true. I have no idea what they should do. This team is not great, or even good, anywhere except coaching, maybe, and that’s a tough way to win.
Saquon Barkley did nothing outside of two plays. He’s good but is he a difference maker? Nope. And he’s probably going to get franchise money with Jones. Signing Barkley is less optimal or more sub-optimal than signing Jones, but I assure you the Giants fans and owner are 100% behind Barkley and 50/50 at best on Jones. This team has no juice at WR, just a bunch of No. 3 and No. 4 guys. That’s where almost all the non-QB money needs to go now.
Kenneth Gainwell’s huge day was the most surprising and also the most fantasy-relevant as it relates to 2023. Miles Sanders is an unrestricted free agent. I think Sanders is a good player but can the Eagles go cheap at RB with Gainwell and Boston Scott and not lose much of anything? Probably. I love Gainwell as a keeper.
The passing attack is pretty condensed with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, assuming at least 35 attempts per game. You just have to commit to Smith every week as your WR3 with WR2 upside. I like Smith as a sixth-round pick, though he may go as early as Top 50.
Jalen Hurts is in QB1 territory (overall, not just Top 12). Nothing is going to change there.
The Bills have a decision to make on Stefon Diggs, but not until after 2023. They’ll run it back one more year because they can’t take the cap hit now (by trading or cutting him), as they are already over the cap with all the rookie value in Josh Allen’s contract gone.
Allen’s flaws in being mistake prone and just refusing to take what the defense gives him with his big-play obsession are now in sharp relief. Like I said last week, it’s going to be virtually impossible for him to ever navigate a four-game playoff slate. He was horrible twice this postseason. Two for two.
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Gabe Davis just can’t make plays and nothing else on the offense is good, including the offensive line. And the defense can’t tackle and has no premium pass rushers or elite players in the defensive backfield. Tre’Davious White was PFF’s 94th-rated corner. Quibble with PFF, but how wrong can they be?
The Bengals have the second-best QB in football in Joe Burrow. He’s the modern Joe Montana. His game is just made for the postseason — all short drops and quick throws and matriculating the ball downfield until the defense cheats and then he’ll gash you. Plus Ja’Marr Chase, the No. 1 receiver and player in fantasy in 2023, is such a great runner after the catch.
The Bengals have one year left of Tee Higgins on his rookie deal and really need him, but they’re way too cheap to give Higgins WR1 money, which he probably gets elsewhere. That story could emerge via a trade as early as March.
Dak Prescott was outplayed by Brock Purdy pretty significantly. That was the difference in the game. It’s hard to argue that Prescott is way better than, say, Derek Carr. They’re basically the same player. Dak is not a championship-level QB but he can get there if the situation around him is perfect. It is not. The Cowboys are weak at WR and at RB if Tony Pollard doesn’t fully recover from his ankle injury. I think CeeDee Lamb is actually a tweener No. 1/No. 2 WR. Even if Pollard does recover fully, he’s not a bell cow. And Ezekiel Elliott is just washed.
The Niners weren’t going to let Purdy lose the game and he did not. This was hardly the kind of Showtime offense you expect with this level of skill talent, but Dallas’ defense deserves credit for some of that. The Niners vs. the Eagles will be fascinating. Of course, the Eagles will not get 250 rushing yards against this defense. But A.J. Brown, if healthy, could have a monster game.
These conference championship games are going to be really fun and are our reward for a pretty terrible divisional round, one of the worst ever, it’s fair to say.
(Top photo: Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports)