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With wild-card weekend in the books, the NFL playoff bracket is down to eight teams. The Kansas City Chiefs continue to lead the way in the 2023 Super Bowl odds, narrowly ahead of the Buffalo Bills. But the favorite in the NFC has shifted heading into the divisional round.
Super Bowl 57 Odds
Team Odds Win Probability Kansas City Chiefs +300 25% Buffalo Bills +360 21.7% San Francisco 49ers +450 18.2% Philadelphia Eagles +500 16.7% Cincinnati Bengals +650 13.3% Dallas Cowboys +750 11.8% New York Giants +2500 3.9% Jacksonville Jaguars +3000 3.2%
The Philadelphia Eagles, who secured the lone bye in the NFC, were narrowly ahead of the San Francisco 49ers at this time last week. Now the 49ers are the top team in the NFC.
With eight teams remaining, only two are seen as true outsiders by oddsmakers: the New York Giants (+2500) and Jacksonville Jaguars (+3000) are both nearly three-times as long as any other team. The other six squads range from +300 to +750.
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Biggest movers after wild-card weekend
Despite still being an extreme longshot, the Giants were the team that saw its odds improve the most after wild-card weekend. New York was +5000 heading into Sunday’s game against Minnesota and now sits at +2500 after defeating the Vikings (31-24) as three-point road underdogs.
The Jaguars also made a big jump (from +4600 to +3000) after their 27-point comeback win over the Chargers. But not only was Jacksonville’s victory less convincing than New York’s, the Jaguars are also perceived to have a tougher divisional-round opponent in the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs. The Giants are a 7.5-point road underdog at Philadelphia, while the Jags are catching 8.5 at KC.
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Dallas Cowboys also saw big odds shift
Among the top-tier teams, the Cowboys saw that biggest improvement in their Super Bowl odds. Dallas jumped from +1300 to +750 after handing Tom Brady and the Bucs a thrashing on Monday Night Football (31-14) as slim 2.5-point road favorites.
The teams that were big wild-card favorites – San Francisco, Buffalo, and Cincinnati – only improved incrementally after their victories.
San Francisco went from +550 to +450 after racing past the Seahawks in the second half (41-23). Buffalo’s razor-thin win over Miami (34-31) moved its odds from +420 to +360. And Cincinnati’s lackluster and somewhat lucky victory over Baltimore (24-17) improved its odds from +750 to +650.
San Francisco heads into the divisional round as a 4.5-point favorite over the Cowboys. The Bills, meanwhile, are 4.5-point home favorites over the Bengals in a do-over of Week 17’s canceled game.
The updated NFL divisional-round betting lines can be viewed at Sports Betting Dime’s NFL odds page, while the NFL public betting trends page shows where the money has been going for the moneyline, spread, and game totals.
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