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The New York Giants should know better.
Despite sneaking into the playoffs while allowing more points than they scored in 2022, the Giants were the NFL’s 12th-worst team in terms of DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders. And in two critical spots in December and January, the NFC East-rival Philadelphia Eagles embarrassed them twice by a combined 57 points.
For what it’s worth, quarterback Daniel Jones may have put together his best season. But what is that worth, considering Jones was en route to bustville prior to 2022? He still wasn’t an All-Pro or even a Pro Bowler, he still threw just 15 touchdown passes in 16 regular-season starts, he still averaged just 6.8 yards per attempt, and he still fell on his face in the season-ending loss to the Eagles.
Running back Saquon Barkley, meanwhile, led the NFC in rushing. But that might have also been a contract-year anomaly for the oft-injured Barkley, who faded with 3.9 yards per carry and four touchdowns in his final seven regular-season games before making a limited impact in the playoffs.
There’s still a very good chance Jones fails to become a franchise quarterback and an even better chance Barkley declines as many running backs do after five years in the league and 26 on this earth.
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Yet the Giants kicked off this interesting offseason by committing more than $10 million in 2023 salary-cap space to Barkley and guaranteeing $92 million to Jones, handcuffing themselves in a search for support for those two or in an attempt to improve a defense that ranked 29th in DVOA while registering just 19 takeaways in 2022.
The franchise-tag hit on Barkley could lessen if the two sides strike a long-term deal before the July 15 deadline, and it is somewhat offset by the fact that Jones’ backloaded contract will cost the team just $21 million against the cap in 2023, according to Spotrac.
But that’s part of the problem. That’s where the Giants went wrong. Because Barkley is now more likely to get away in 2024, and because the Jones deal will hamper them when his cap hit skyrockets to $45 million that season, the Giants are, to an extent, going all-in on a season in which 16 teams have better Super Bowl odds at DraftKings.
Their mistake was falling for their aberrational success in 2022 and believing this is the recipe for success. It very likely is not because the bad still outweighs the good on Jones’ NFL resume, and Barkley’s best days are likely behind him based on historical comparisons at the increasingly impotent running back position.
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What have the Giants done to build on that ’22 campaign?
They traded for enticing tight end Darren Waller in another (albeit smaller) mortgage on the future via the 2023 third-round pick that now belongs to Waller’s former team, the Las Vegas Raiders. He’ll cost them nearly $12 million this season, which wouldn’t be bad if the Georgia Tech product could rediscover his Pro Bowl magic from 2020. But Waller is on the wrong side of 30, and his last two seasons have been underwhelming as a result of injuries as well as a pronounced decline in rate-based production.
Elsewhere in support of Jones and Barkley, they added wide receiver Parris Campbell ($4.7 million in 2023 only) and brought back wideout Darius Slayton (two years, $12 million). The former was a remarkable disappointment with five touchdowns in four seasons with the Indianapolis Colts, while Slayton obviously can’t be considered an upgrade over himself.
Not even Jeff Smith (one year, $1.2 million) would write home about Jeff Smith, and they haven’t replaced departed starting guard Nick Gates (off to the division-rival Washington Commanders).
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All in all, the offense may have built—ever so slightly—on the status quo, although that wasn’t the major issue at the conclusion of the 2022 season.
On D, incoming linebacker Bobby Okereke—who signed a four-year, $40 million deal—could help that atrocious run defense, but the 2019 third-round pick is not a star and is coming off a season with 11 missed tackles. The bang for Big Blue’s buck may not be there.
New defensive lineman Rakeem Nunez-Roches (three years, $12 million) won’t likely be much of a difference-maker as a soon-to-be 30-year-old best suited for a rotational role. That’s about all she wrote with the lion’s share of free agency complete and the G-Men down to about $4 million in cap space, per Spotrac.
It’s not enough for a team that wasn’t close to begin with but is now married to a quarterback who is still as likely to flop as excel and will soon become a tremendous salary-cap burden.
In 2023, and in several years beyond, the Giants will regret the myopic, hasty way they navigated what will likely go down as a critical juncture for the franchise.
They should have known better.
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