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It’s been eight years since the Bulls last won a playoff series, which came on the heels of a 50-win season in 2014-15. But they’ve never lost in the NBA play-in tournament – a streak they’ll try to keep alive on Friday against the Heat.
Miami is the clear favorite to take care of business in this one after missing its chance to clinch a playoff spot on Tuesday. Can the Heat avoid losing two in a row as sizable home favorites, or will Chicago make it 2-for-2 with another outright upset to steal the No. 8 seed in the East?
Here’s how we’re betting Friday’s contest, which tips off at 7 p.m. ET on TNT.
Heat vs. Bulls odds
(via BetMGM)
Heat -5.5 (-110), moneyline -225
Bulls +5.5 (-110), moneyline +180
O/U 208.5 (-110)
Heat vs. Bulls prediction and analysis
(7 p.m. ET on TNT)
Ahead of Tuesday’s play-in opener, I was expecting the Heat to extend their dominance over the Hawks with ample rest for their key starters, even as the larger sample of this season told the story of a flawed roster that lacked the tenacity of those postseason darlings from recent years.
Instead, Miami was outworked and outclassed by an Atlanta team that fired its coach less than seven weeks earlier. And I just can’t see laying the points again in a similar spot.
Tuesday’s loss exposed so much of what’s wrong with the Heat, whose trip to the Finals in 2020 feels like a distant memory.
Miami shot 32.4% from deep and 49.1% from inside the arc – both of which would rank last across the entire season – and only two players shot better than 50% from the floor.
DeMar DeRozan of the Chicago Bulls is fouled by Bam Adebayo of the Miami Heat. Getty Images
Two of the Heat’s starters, Gabe Vincent (six points) and Max Strus (three), combined for just nine points in that loss, with all 11 of their combined attempts coming from deep.
Even Jimmy Butler (21 points), who led this team in scoring (22.9 PPG), shot 6-of-19 (31.6%) from the field and went 0-for-2 in the fourth quarter.
Bam Adebayo, who finished with just 12 points, led the team with nine rebounds – his fourth straight game with fewer than 10 boards and his 44th such game in 76 starts (57.9%). That allowed the Hawks to feast on the offensive glass, turning 22 rebounds into 26 second-chance points with a whopping 64 points in the paint.
That’s clearly an issue against the Bulls and center Nikola Vucevic, who ranks 15th in rebound rate (18.6%) and averaged 19 points and 13 rebounds in three games against the Heat this season.
Chicago won all three games by at least eight points – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see an outright upset in this one, too.
Betting on the NBA?
In many ways, it feels like the Bulls are playing with house money after a late-season surge to secure a spot in the play-in tournament.
They sure played like it on Wednesday, when they erased a 19-point deficit in the third quarter behind 30 second-half points from Zach LaVine.
That win marked the Bulls’ ninth road win in their last 11 tries, and they posted the NBA’s third-best net rating (+5.7) from the All-Star break through the end of the regular season.
Compare that to the Heat (-1.6), who have dropped half their games since the break after Tuesday’s loss.
I’m not totally sold that the right team is even favored here, given that Chicago has been better on a per-possession basis across the entire season and especially over the last two months.
Clearly, oddsmakers aren’t going to deal the No. 10 seed as a road favorite, but that doesn’t mean this price is right, either.
So far in this play-in tournament, favorites are 4-0 ATS (against the spread).The Bulls will make it 5-0.
Heat vs. Bulls pick