This year’s running of the Indy 500 will be the 107th. To celebrate that achievement, we grabbed our experts, Jordan Bianchi and Jeff Gluck, and asked them about the Snake Pit — an all-day infield party with DJs and drinking that starts at 7 a.m. We also managed to squeeze in some actual analysis — how to pick winners, any stats to pay attention to, and, most importantly, which long shots to bet on. Jeff and Jordan both agreed on a 40-to-1 underdog (who may not be such an underdog) they like. Read on for more!
1. When we talk NASCAR, we often cite courses and drivers playing to strengths on those certain designs and formats. The Indy 500 is obviously the same every year — is that as important here?
Jeff: I’m covering my eighth Indy 500 this week, and it’s sort of hilarious how often everyone is wrong about who will win. Like Marcus Ericsson last year – yeah, he drives for Chip Ganassi Racing, but I don’t remember people going, “Watch out for Ericsson, he’s going to win it!” Helio Castroneves won his record-tying fourth Indy 500 the year before, but it actually seemed unexpected at the time. People weren’t really talking about Takuma Sato in 2020, either. Anyway, it’s just sort of a weird race. You can look at practice sessions and qualifying and track history, but it doesn’t seem that reliable in projecting the winner. But to answer your original question, I’d look at the team more than anything. McLaren, for example, had all four of its cars qualify in the top nine positions for Sunday. Could one of them win?
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Jordan: Following up on Jeff’s point, the Indy 500 in recent seems to unfold much like Daytona and Talladega do on the NASCAR side where there is a group of drivers who typically perform well there but it’s not unusual to see an out-of-nowhere winner emerge. Picking a Ganassi, Penske, Andretti or McLaren driver to win is the safest route, but don’t hesitate to look elsewhere for a potential winner – especially if the odds are enticing.
2. What is the single most important stat someone looking to place a wager on the race needs to look at? Laps led this season? Speed in the two weeks of qualifying and practice leading up to the race?
Jeff: If you’re intent on relying on stats, I’d just look at track history for Indianapolis. For example: Scott Dixon should have won this race last year without a pit road mistake. You’d think Dixon will be fast again on Sunday. Veterans like Tony Kanaan and Castroneves are always fast. Youngster Pato O’Ward might just get it done based on his oval-racing talent. That doesn’t mean they’ll win, thanks to the unpredictable ways this race unfolds, but those drivers should be in the mix based on what we’ve seen them do before here.
Jordan: History on ovals, particularly in the 500, is one of the primary things you should look at. If a driver has a history of struggling on ovals and/or at Indy, then it’s hard to have much confidence that they’re going to break out on Sunday. Yes, it can happen, but you’re better off tabbing someone with at least a track record of success on ovals.
3. Have either of you experienced The Snake Pit? (An Indy 500 Coors Light-sponsored party that starts at 7 a.m. with DJs playing until the green flag and then starting again 5 minutes after the race begins)
Jeff: I’ve only been out before the race starts, which has actually been a bummer because some of my favorite DJs (Martin Garrix, Zedd, Marshmello) have done their sets during the 500. I can’t ditch my job to go to a concert, of course. If you’re not familiar with the Snake Pit concept, you might be wondering why a concert would be held at the same time as the race (and those in the Snake Pit can’t even see the action). Well, it’s actually quite genius: Attendees have to buy a general admission race ticket ($45) and then get a Snake Pit ticket ($80) on top of that, and almost everyone in that crowd is from 18-30 years old. So it’s a way to get people to the track who just want to party, but it also gets them into the tradition of going to Indy every year. When they’re older, they might still come back for other reasons (like the Carb Day concert or even to watch the race itself). People love events, and there’s a reason the Indy 500 calls itself “the greatest spectacle in racing.”
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Jordan: I’ve walked through on race morning before things start picking up in the garage and it’s quite the experience. Kudos to IMS for its willingness and commitment to find a successful way to bring a new and younger audience to the track – something more tracks need to embrace with the same gusto instead of just making a token effort to check a box and say they tried.
4. Who is your pick to win the Indy 500?
Jeff: I’m going with Pato O’Ward. He just gets oval racing, man (he’s a big fan of adding “man” onto his sentences as well). Look at his three career Indy 500 finishes: Sixth, fourth, second. And look at his Texas finishes: three podiums (including a win) in five career starts. In addition to his exciting personality, O’Ward is fast, fearless and damn talented. I can see him getting it done on Sunday.
Jordan: Alex Palou is having a great month of May thus far, including a sensational pole-winning run in qualifying and a win on the Indy road course two weeks ago. He also comes in as the series points leader. Having come close to winning the 500 previously, it feels like now is his time to get his first win.
5. Who are a couple long shots you think have a chance?
Jeff: Wow, Conor Daly is +4500 (45-to-1)? Are you serious? I get he hasn’t had the best May so far, but I wouldn’t discount his chances at all. Daly led 40 laps of this race two years ago and would have had a shot at the win until he hit a flying tire and sustained damage. Last year, he led seven laps and settled for a sixth-place finish. But Daly knows how to get around this place – as does four-time Indy 500 champ Helio Castroneves, who is somehow also only +4500.
Jordan: Two names jump out: Josef Newgarden (+1600) and Conor Daly. Both have a history of running well here, though not always finishing well due to either bad luck or miscues. Neither winning Sunday would be all that shocking, per se, but the long odds for each means a nice return should one of them reach victory lane.
Indy 500 odds
(Top photo: Justin Casterline/Getty Images; in-line photo: Michael Hickey/Getty Images)