This year’s draft class is one of the strongest in years, and it’s due in large part to the strength of the college talent on both sides of the ball. After a year that saw more college pitching prospects undergo Tommy John surgery than go in the first round (one of whom, Reggie Crawford, fit in both categories), this year’s college pitching crop is much stronger and may be the best since 2011.
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Florida could have two starting pitchers go on Day 1 in right-handers Hurston Waldrep and Brandon Sproat. Waldrep is now in the running to be the first college pitcher off the board along with LSU’s Paul Skenes, Tennessee’s Chase Dollander has continued to struggle through five starts, while Sproat is trying to move up after turning down a reported seven-figure bonus from the Mets last year in the third round.
Sproat was the better of the two this weekend in the Gators’ series against Alabama, throwing a complete game where he struck out 11 and allowed just four baserunners. Sproat was 94-99 mph and held his velocity deep into the game, showing a 55 to 60 changeup, average curveball with two-plane break, and a slider at 86-89 mph that was his worst pitch because he didn’t show much feel for throwing it. He takes a huge stride toward the plate to generate that velocity from his lower half, and fields his position well, both in terms of his athleticism and his instincts. The fastball does get hit harder than it should for its velocity, and he’s always had issues with overall command.
Sproat was drafted by the Rangers in 2019 and appeared to be ready to sign an over-slot deal in the seventh round, but ended up going to Florida instead. The Mets took him in the third round last year and, again, appeared on track to sign him to an over-slot deal, but he declined their offers as well. If we didn’t have any of that history, I’d say Sproat had a chance to get into the first round with this kind of stuff if he keeps posting – he’s struck out 35 percent of batters so far this year, way above his career norms. The history makes it complicated, as teams can’t help but view him as That Guy Who Didn’t Sign. I’m just judging him on the merits here – this is a first-round arm and athlete who just has to perform up to the level of his tools.
More of the latest on the top college prospects:
• Waldrep didn’t have his best night on Friday, starting the second game of the doubleheader between Florida and Alabama, as he overused his out-pitch splitter and ended up throwing fewer strikes than he should have. Waldrep, a transfer from Southern Miss who is definitely not a P.G. Wodehouse character, was 93-97 mph with a wipeout pitch in his splitter/split-change at 85-87 mph, although he threw it far too often, including in counts where he needed a strike. The pitch has huge, late movement that carries it out of the zone, making it a great chase pitch but not a great one to throw when you want a called strike. He throws a curve and slider, going more with the curveball, but doesn’t finish either of them well enough out front to call them more than fringe-average. Waldrep works from a very high slot that helps the splitter but probably will limit him to a curveball rather than a slider, and on Friday against the Tide his command and control were both an issue. He walked four in six innings, and it could easily have been more because he works out of the zone by design. Alabama hitters were clearly trying to avoid the splitter, and Waldrep ended up with more whiffs on his fastball, as the splitter resulted in a lot of called balls. This wasn’t his best showing, but it’s also plus velocity with a bona fide out pitch, and his delivery has him very online to the plate so he at least has a chance to command the ball to both sides. I see the big upside that might make him a top-10 pick in July, along with clear work for whatever team drafts him to change his pitching plan and try to improve his curveball.
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• Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford missed the series while recovering from surgery after he fouled a ball off a rather sensitive area of his body. There’s no projected timetable for his return but he’s expected back this season. Langford was No. 1 on my most recent draft ranking.
GO DEEPER Keith Law’s MLB Draft 2023 Rankings: Early list is loaded with college players
• I mentioned Dollander’s disappointing start to the year, which continued with his outing on Friday against Missouri – probably the weakest lineup in the SEC this year – where he gave up five runs and had exactly one swing and miss in 43 pitches. Dollander’s slider was easily plus last year, maybe a 70, but it’s been much closer to an average pitch this year and he had trouble getting the ball down on Friday against the Tigers. After two outings, I could hand-wave this away as just a slow start, but it’s five starts now and he is just not showing the stuff he did last year that made him the favorite to be the top college starter drafted this July. There isn’t a good explanation for a pitcher losing a breaking ball like Dollander has. There are explanations, mind you. There just isn’t a good one.
Chase Dollander (Bob Levey / Getty Images)
• Back to the Gators-Tide series, Alabama lefty Grayson Hitt started the last game against Waldrep and also struggled with strikes, although his reason is more related to his delivery than his pitching plan. He was 89-93 mph with some arm-side run, and worked very heavily with a cutter at 85-89 mph that is his best pitch and flashes plus, along with a slider at 80-83 mph that and curveball at 76-78 mph. He cuts himself off slightly in his delivery, so he can’t work with his fastball to his arm side, giving hitters more of a clue to the pitch’s location if they pick up its type (or vice versa) – the fastball is more likely to be middle-in to lefties, and anything else is going to be middle-away or just plain away. Hitt has always had issues with walks, and now has 16 walks in 22.2 innings this year, with only one start against an SEC opponent; it’s worse against righties, as he’s walked 19 percent of them in 2023. He’s had some first-round buzz as one of the leading college lefties in a year that’s much stronger from the right side, and I could see that given the effectiveness of the cutter. I just don’t buy it now with the control issues he’s had this year and really since he got to Tuscaloosa.
• Florida’s Jac Caglianone has already popped up as a potential No. 1 pick for 2024, as he’s started off the year showing huge power (a team-leading 13 homers in 22 games) and velocity off the mound (up to 97 mph), making him potentially the best two-way prospect we’ve seen since the unfortunate Brendan McKay. We’re a long ways from the 2024 draft, so it’s probably a good idea to pump the brakes on the Caglianone hype. On the mound, he does have huge arm strength, but he cuts himself off badly in his delivery so he’s across his body and struggles to locate to his glove side, while he also doesn’t have an average breaking ball. He was 93-97 mph in his outing against Alabama with a solid-average changeup at 82-84 mph, but neither his slider nor his curve was even close to average and both showed weak rotation. At the plate, it’s power over hit and he didn’t look good against breaking stuff down or fastballs up. He’s very interesting given his size, strength and arm strength, but when we’re talking about candidates to go 1-1, we want players with more present skills, at least when it comes to the college side.
• Florida shortstop Josh Rivera is a fourth-year junior who was a decent prospect out of high school in 2019, going in the 22nd round to San Diego because he was deemed unsignable. He hit just .259/.345/.414 in his first three years at Florida, with nine homers in 2022 his career high. He’s off to a roaring start this year, though, with 10 homers already and a .418/.520/.835 line, along with more walks than strikeouts (16:9, which my brain insists I point out is two perfect squares). He’s 22, so he’s older than most of the pitchers he’s facing, but he looks like a completely different player this year, making harder contact and turning on good velocity, running better, and playing strong defense at shortstop. He homered twice in the series against Alabama, although one of those was almost certainly wind-aided. I was more impressed by the adjustments he was making within games and at-bats. He’s a 55 runner who has already set a career high in steals with six this year, and showed excellent range to his left with great hands and solid instincts. Draft models will penalize him for his age, and that’s a legitimate concern when talking about his performance. I think he’s a different guy than he was last year when he went undrafted and could see him going in the second round as an under-slot player for a team willing to bet the physical improvements are real.
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• Alabama lefty Hunter Furtado threw in relief in Game 1 and was 92-96 mph from a very high arm slot, throwing a power slurve at 77-83 mph that’s probably a 60 – it’s a slider grip from a curveball slot and got some very ugly swings from lefties. He does have a changeup to get righties out, with good deception and a little late fade, although he doesn’t command the pitch well enough to call it more than average. His command overall isn’t great, which is common with guys with very high arm slots, so he’s much more likely to be a reliever in the long run, but it’s three average or better pitches and he’d be an intriguing get-some-time after the fourth round.
• The Florida high school talent pool is also deep this year, but a number of the best guys are hurt (Aidan Miller, Wes Mendes) or down in Miami, so my one big get this week was shortstop Arjun Nimmala of Strawberry Crest High. Nimmala was a borderline first-rounder who came out very strong this spring, literally, hitting the ball harder and looking like he’s added some muscle in the offseason, and he’s launched himself into top-10 consideration – the same arc that Jackson Holliday took last spring en route to being the first overall pick. Nimmala shows great actions at shortstop with a plus arm and very good instincts to get himself into position for plays in either direction. At the plate … it’s just so easy. He has quick hands and a perfect bat path for hard line-drive contact and power to left-center, using his hips and legs to generate that power while getting good follow-through after contact. The only thing he didn’t do in the game I saw was run, as he’s probably a 40/45 runner, although I don’t think it’s going to matter. High school hitters don’t offer the same level of certainty we have with college position players, but Nimmala has as much upside as anyone in the class beyond Langford and Dylan Crews. He’s also playing with his brother, Akhil, a third baseman who looks like he’ll bring everyone back to Strawberry Crest next year as well.
(Top photo of Brandon Sproat in 2022: Samuel Lewis / Icon Sportswire)