I’ve been doing the Official Power Rankings for Major League Baseball here on CBS Sports since spring training of 2012. It’s a pleasure, some of the time, to interact with, well, some of you. Loyal readers who have been around for a long time are familiar with my pre-spring version of the rankings, in that I usually spend a good portion of time up here explaining that, yes, last year’s champion is the defending champion but also is not entitled to start the spring in the No. 1 spot. We’ve had a few years (I believe two in the 2021 Dodgers and 2017 Cubs) where the champion did start at No. 1, but it wasn’t based on some weird notion that the champs have to be dethroned on the field.
Generally, though, our No. 1 in the first version of the power rankings isn’t the defending champion and it’s a very simple reason: It’s a new year and we’re judging how the team looks for the new year, not what happened last year.
All that said, this time around, I think there’s a chance the Astros retain the top spot.
The most obvious negative for the team is that ace Justin Verlander, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, is gone. In the regular season, he started 28 games with the Astros and won 20 of those. They will obviously miss him. How could any team not miss a player the caliber of Verlander once he leaves?
They also weren’t that reliant on him. The Astros were 86-48 when Verlander didn’t start, which is a 162-game pace of 104 wins. That is to say, they were one of the best teams in baseball when he didn’t pitch. Still, there’s a residual, indirect impact of aces. Think of those 175 innings that weren’t replacement-level pitchers. Think of how confident the team feels with an ace taking the mound, how much less stress there is on the offense, defense and bullpen. It really does add up.
The Astros’ rotation now, though, looks just fine.
Framber Valdez is a frontline starter and right in the middle of his prime. He worked more than 200 innings last season and can be counted on that kind of workload again. Cristian Javier is soon turning 26 years old and ready to throw in the vicinity of 175 innings. He’s a fine No. 2 with his high level of talent — which we saw on display in his World Series start that resulted in a no-hitter. Lance McCullers only started eight games last season, coming off injury, so having him back for the full season also helps mitigate the Verlander loss.
That’s the top three and it’s a very nice group. Luis Garcia was 15-8 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP last season. José Urquidy was 13-8 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Those are the back-end starters. They’d be mid-rotation options on many teams. Top pitching prospect Hunter Brown provides organizational depth.
It might sound silly, but it’s true: The Astros didn’t need to retain Verlander.
The bullpen is still loaded. The offense looks to have a full season of Michael Brantley and added José Abreu. We have a better idea of what they can expect from Jeremy Peña, who was the rookie replacement for Carlos Correa last season.
I mean: Damn.
Are they better?
Maybe. Maybe not. Entering spring training, they are worthy of keeping the top spot.