In part one of my November mailbag, the questions focused on the free-agent shortstop market and several teams’ contingency plans if they strike out on top targets. For part two, I responded to subscribers’ trade scenarios and questions, including many involving top pitchers and a few on shedding bad contracts (with some free agency queries tossed in).
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Thanks to everyone who participated. Let’s get right to it.
Questions were edited for clarity and length.
Could the Dodgers trade prospects Diego Cartaya , Michael Busch and Ryan Pepiot to the Brewers for Corbin Burnes? — David V.
Whoa, that would be a blockbuster. Burnes will be a free agent after the 2024 season, but I think they keep him until next year’s trade deadline at least. If they did trade the two-time All-Star, that prospect package would probably be enough to land him at that time, but it’s also a huge prospect price to pay. Cartaya is one of the best catching prospects in the sport and a special future impact bat. Busch, an infielder/outfielder, profiles as an everyday player, too. Pepiot is a starter with back-of-the-rotation potential. If I’m the Dodgers, I’d prefer to make trade proposals that do not include Cartaya.
What might a Yankees trade for Pablo López include? — Matthew D.
Do you see the Yankees and Marlins completing the Pablo López-Gleyber Torres trade that was discussed at the (last trade) deadline? — Joseph J.
For the Yankees to land López, it’s my understanding they’d have to include Oswald Peraza, Jasson Domínguez, Spencer Jones or Anthony Volpe in the trade, and I can’t see New York parting with that level of prospect for López. As for Torres, the Marlins like him, but if they made a trade they’d control him for only two more years. He’s eligible for salary arbitration both years, and that doesn’t fit their modus operandi. They would prefer major leaguers who aren’t arbitration-eligible or top prospects for López.
Trade proposal: The Orioles offer outfielder Anthony Santander and minor leaguer Connor Norby to Miami for López. Who says no? — Matt S.
Let me change it up: If the Orioles offer Cedric Mullins, they’re getting López. The Marlins’ No. 1 priority is to acquire a long-term solution for center field, and Mullins has been at or near the top of their target list for two years.
Pablo López is under team control through 2024. Will the Marlins move him? (Dale Zanine / USA Today)
If you were (Padres president of baseball operations) A.J. Preller, what would you do this offseason? — Matthew R.
I would sign first baseman José Abreu to a two-year deal and try to add a strong starting pitcher — maybe not from the top of the class (Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodón), but perhaps a starter from the next level down, like Kodai Senga or Chris Bassitt. Then, as always, look to add more undervalued bullpen arms.
Would San Diego really trade Fernando Tatis Jr.? He’s lost the city and the team and is signed for (12) more years; it seems like a new beginning could be had. If so, who would line up as a trade partner? — Greg H.
The Padres have no interest in trading Tatis. They made it all the way to the National League Championship Series and believe if they have a healthy Tatis, Juan Soto, and Manny Machado, they are a serious World Series contender for 2023 — and I agree with that assessment. Tatis’ injuries and 80-game suspension for violating MLB’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs have been disappointing for the Padres, but if the 23-year-old can put it all behind him, he is without a doubt one of the sport’s most talented players. Look for San Diego to move him to the outfield in 2023.
The Mets are rumored to be in talks with Tampa Bay about Tyler Glasnow. What would it take for New York to get a starting pitcher of that caliber? — Matthew D.
It would take a strong prospect package, something along the lines of outfielder Alex Ramirez and pitcher Blade Tidwell.
If the Astros re-sign Justin Verlander , do they deal from their starting pitch depth to get a catcher? (Maybe with) the Blue Jays ? — Michael D.
The Astros certainly have the pitching depth to make a trade for one of the Blue Jays’ or A’s catchers if they want to go down that path. But if it were my call, I’d be greedy and keep all the pitching. They just won the World Series with catcher Martín Maldonado, one of the best game callers and pitch framers in the American League. Instead of trading for a catcher, I would prefer to sign free agent Willson Contreras, who could DH or play first base when he’s not catching, or even re-sign Christian Vázquez, who caught the no-hitter in Game 4 of the World Series. No one in the majors has more pitching depth than Houston, but I would hold onto it, as you always have to be prepared for injuries.
What would it take for the Rangers to acquire reliever David Bednar from the Pirates? Would starter Glenn Otto, infielder Ezequiel Duran and reliever Brett Martin work? — Zach S.
No, that would not work for the Pirates, but the Rangers would make the deal in a hot Texas flash. If and when the Pirates deal Bednar, they are going to want two solid prospects back. How about two of shortstop Gleider Figuereo, right-hander Dane Acker and right-hander Marc Church? A package like that would be closer to fair value for Bednar, who is under team control for four more seasons.
Is Rhys Hoskins a real trade candidate? Is there a possibility he could be included in a Phillies package to Florida for a controllable pitcher? — Grant Y.
Team president Dave Dombrowski has led me to believe that Hoskins will be the Phillies’ first baseman in 2023. He needs to continue to work on his defense, but his 30-home run power helps their lineup and he has a winning attitude. Hoskins will be a free agent after next season. I don’t see him getting moved, at least during the offseason.
If the White Sox traded Andrew Vaughn to Oakland for Sean Murphy, what else would Oakland likely have to include to make it happen? — Ralph W.
The White Sox are not going to trade Vaughn for Murphy. Vaughn is going to be their everyday first baseman. He also has more trade value than Murphy.
What type of prospect would the Yankees have to attach to Josh Donaldson to move him? — Scott J.
I think Donaldson’s decline is such that they can’t trade him at this point unless they attach a top 15 type prospect to him, and even then it’s borderline if any team would take his contract.
Is there a matching contract out there that aligns with Marcell Ozuna’s for a trade (with the receiving team designating him for assignment)? Or do you see the Braves having to trade a prospect to get rid of him? Braves fans are ready to see him gone. — Jack V.
The Braves owe Ozuna $37 million over the next two years, when he’ll be playing at 32 and 33 years old and coming off the past two years with a .280 on-base percentage, along with his off-the-field issues, including a 20-game suspension for violating the league’s domestic violence policy and being charged with driving under the influence of alcohol. I’m not sure the Braves would find a trade partner unless they attach a legitimate prospect to Ozuna and pay down most of his future salary. My guess is he’ll be released before his contract expires.
Scenario: The Giants make a splash and acquire Rafael Devers from the Red Sox. What sort of trade package would it take to get that done? — Gregory A.
This is not happening. Devers isn’t going anywhere. At some point, the Red Sox will sign him to a 10-year, $300-plus million deal. If for some reason they did trade him, the Giants’ farm system is not a good match for Boston.
Out of the box idea: The Cardinals trade Jack Flaherty, Paul DeJong and Drew VerHagen to the Red Sox for Chris Sale and Luis Perales or Connor Seabold. — Dennis K.
The Red Sox don’t want DeJong or VerHagen. The Flaherty-for-Sale part of trade would depend on the medical reports. I would lean on the side of the Red Sox preferring to keep Sale, but he is owed $55 million over the next two years and if the Cardinals were willing to take the full freight, Boston might consider doing it one-for-one just to get Sale off the books and give themselves more payroll flexibility. Without seeing the medicals on both pitchers, it’s hard from the outside to answer this question.
Kodai Senga will spark a bidding war. (Kyodo via Associated Press)
Are other teams really going to compete for Kodai Senga or can he just sign with the Cubs already? — Statistics
When you see the velocity of Senga’s fastball and the break on his split-finger, it’s clear there will be a bidding war for his services and other free-agent starters are going to have to sign before him. It could be a while.
Which under-the-radar team could surprise us with big signings, like the Rangers did last year? — Louis-Bernard Campbell A.
The Baltimore Orioles. Wait for it.
Will the Brewers attempt to dump (Christian) Yelich? — Aaron S.
Yelich is going to make $26 million per year for six more years and then get paid another $6.5 million to be bought out of a mutual option for 2029. The Brewers are not going to dump him, and no one is going to take that contract. He’s still a serviceable player, as shown by his 2.7 bWAR, 14 home runs, 99 runs and 19 stolen bases last season. I don’t think Yelich will be an All-Star or a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger or MVP winner again, but I do think it’s likely Miller Park will be his home until retirement.
How come we rarely see top prospect-for-top prospect type trades? Seems this is an extremely underutilized market that general managers (avoid). — Joseph G.
Teams always seem to overrate their own prospects because they know them better, and this makes top prospect-for-top prospects deals tough to make, but they do happen. One of my favorites was the Jazz Chisholm Jr.-for-Zac Gallen trade between the Diamondbacks and Marlins in 2019.
It feels like Jake McCarthy is the odd man out in the Diamondbacks’ outfield next year. What kind of return would he net? — Devin M.
The Diamondbacks could use another right-handed hitter for their lineup, so if they were to trade him I think they’d look for that along with bullpen help and a backup catcher.
(I would) love to see the Rays pick up two veteran bats, like (Michael) Brantley and (Michael) Conforto. I think their minor-league strength (could be used to land) a more controllable bat. What do you think they are looking for to help their offense? — Brad O.
Conforto makes a lot of sense for the Rays if the medicals on his right shoulder check out, as I’m told they do. He would fit nicely in their lineup. I’d also like to see the Rays land a veteran power bat, such as José Abreu, who can still hit 25 homers and drive in 100 runs to take pressure off the middle of their lineup. Abreu also would be a good mentor for Wander Franco and their other young hitters. Brantley is a fit, too, but he’s in decline and really needs to DH more than play left field at this point. However, I like his leadership and mentorship skills, too.
(Top photo of Corbin Burnes: Benny Sieu / USA Today)