NASCAR at Richmond odds, predictions, time: Model gives surprising 2024 Toyota Owners 400 picks


Richmond Raceway is often referred to as the “Action Track.” With its wide, sweeping corners promoting more speed than a typical short track, it certainly lives up to the nickname. On Sunday, the iconic 0.75-mile, D-shaped oval will host the 2024 Toyota Owners 400 in the first of two appearances on the NASCAR schedule. The green flag drops at 7 p.m. ET and the race is scheduled for 400 laps around a venue that first hosted the NASCAR Cup Series in 1953. Joe Gibbs Racing has been the dominant force at Richmond of late, winning nine of the last 16 events. Accordingly, there are four Gibbs cars at the top of the 2024 Toyota Owners 400 odds.
Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell are 17-4 co-favorites, followed by Martin Truex Jr. (6-1) and Ty Gibbs (8-1). Kyle Larson is 10-1 in the NASCAR at Richmond odds, while William Byron, Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher are all 12-1. Before making any 2024 NASCAR at Richmond predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Toyota Owners 400 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure’s model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.’s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano’s Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch’s Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin’s triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson’s wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas.
Then it called its first winner of the 2024 season with Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout and predicted a Hamlin win in Bristol at 5-1. It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 17 winners since 2021, including nine last year alone. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2024 Toyota Owners 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Richmond leaderboard.
Top 2024 Toyota Owners 400 predictions
For the 2024 Toyota Owners 400, the model is high on Joey Logano, even though he’s a 25-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Richmond odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Logano is still shy of his 34th birthday, but he’s already competing in his 17th NASCAR Cup Series season and the two-time champion is a 32-time winner in NASCAR’s top circuit.
Logano only has one top-10 finish in 2024 and is a disappointing 22nd in the NASCAR standings, but he’ll try to turn that around on a track where he’s experienced plenty of success. Logano won the 2014 and the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 and had 11 other top-five finishes in 29 career starts at Richmond. That’s the best top-five percentage (44.8%) that he’s had at any track in which he’s made at least 20 starts in his NASCAR Cup Series career.
Another massive shocker: Martin Truex Jr., a three-time winner at Richmond and one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 Richmond NASCAR starting lineup. Truex won the 2017 NASCAR Cup Series championship and is the points leader entering the week but he’s only finished better than fifth once this season.
Truex has also finished outside the top 10 in the NASCAR standings in each of the last two seasons, failing to make the postseason entirely after suffering his first winless season 2014 in 2022. Truex was outside the top 10 during the spring race at Richmond last season and hasn’t finished better than seventh in his last three starts at the historic short track. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 NASCAR at Richmond picks
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2024 NASCAR at Richmond odds ,longer than 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Toyota Owners 400 2024, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Richmond odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Richmond leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 17 winners.
2024 Toyota Owners 400 odds, drivers, lineup
See full NASCAR at Richmond picks at SportsLine
Denny Hamlin 17-4
Christopher Bell 17-4
Martin Truex Jr. 6-1
Ty Gibbs 8-1
Kyle Larson 10-1
William Byron 12-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Chris Buescher 12-1
Tyler Reddick 14-1
Ryan Blaney 16-1
Chase Elliott 18-1
Kyle Busch 18-1
Ross Chastain 20-1
Joey Logano 25-1
Bubba Wallace 45-1
Alex Bowman 50-1
Chase Briscoe 60-1
Austin Dillon 75-1
Josh Berry 100-1
Noah Gragson 100-1
Ryan Preece 100-1
Daniel Suarez 100-1
Michael McDowell 100-1
John Hunter Nemechek 125-1
Erik Jones 125-1
Carson Hocevar 125-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 150-1
Austin Cindric 250-1
Corey Lajoie 350-1
Todd Gilliland 500-1
Justin Haley 1000-1
Ty Dillon 2000-1
Harrison Burton 2000-1
Daniel Hemric 2000-1
Zane Smith 2000-1
Kaz Grala 5000-1


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