Welcome to my workshop.
This began with me thinking about lefty hitting. And not just for one reason.
This began with noticing that just 39.5 percent of the plate appearances in 2022 were by lefty hitters — the lowest since 1989. Also, it was the third straight year in which lefties had a lower OPS than righties. Prior to that, it had never occurred in any single season in the DH era which began in 1973.
It was the Giants giving the defensively limited, but lefty-hitting Joc Pederson the $19.65 million qualifying offer. It was the team with by far the fewest lefty plate appearances in 2022, the Blue Jays, trading their second-leading home run hitter over the past three years, righty Teoscar Hernandez, with the concession of wanting more diversity. It was the Yankees doing a quick strike to re-sign Anthony Rizzo and one member of the organization mentioning his batting average on balls in play to me (more on this in a bit).
It is a free-agent class in which the best hitter coming from Japan (Masataka Yoshida) and arguably the three most interesting bounce-back candidates (Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto and Joey Gallo) are all left-handed (all represented by Scott Boras, as is the best lefty hitter, Brandon Nimmo, and switch-hitter Jurickson Profar — so the agent is going to know this market as well as anyone).
All of that comes with massive rule changes, notably anti-shift legislation designed to reverse the slide by lefty hitters, in particular. Beginning in 2023, all four infielders will have to have their feet on the infield dirt when the pitcher is on the rubber, two infielders will have to be on each side of the second base bag (which, among other things, will limit the growth of four-outfielder alignments) and no longer will the best fielders be able to flop from, say, shortstop to the right side of the infield to put a team’s top fielder where the ball is most likely to be hit.
Cody Bellinger Getty Images
At Single-A and Double-A in 2022 — at which the new shift rules were deployed — batting average on ground balls rose nine points (from .240 to .249) for lefty hitters while staying near neutral for righties. The impact, therefore, could be greater in the majors because shifts are more frequent and employ better defenders. In 2022, lefties hit .024 lower on grounders than righties.
The top 44 most shifted against players in 2022 (minimum 100 plate appearances) were all lefty batters. The most shifted player (Baseball Savant) was switch-hitter Carlos Santana from the left side (98.3 percent of the time). He also had the lowest batting average on balls in play among qualifiers at .209 — if you want to keep seeing the early offseason pattern, Pittsburgh signed Santana for one year at $6.7 million Friday thinking a shift-less sport could provide a forum for a rebound.
Rizzo does not hit the ball on the ground a lot, but last year he was down 6 percent from his normal output. That just might reflect the reality of where the game has transitioned. The shifts — in conjunction with high-velocity pitching, greater spin and greater precision in knowing each batter’s weaknesses — has made it difficult to string multiple hits together in one inning to score runs, leading to the launch revolution to go for homers. Without the extreme shifts, would Rizzo return to, say, putting the ball on the ground 40 percent of the time? In addition, no major league hitter faced as many pitches in 2022 with a four-man outfield as Rizzo (second was Gallo, sixth was Matt Carpenter).
In a shift-less game would Rizzo have had nine more hits in 2022? If so, it would have been the difference between what he batted (.224) and hitting .243, which was the exact major league average.
Michael Conforto Robert Sabo
Start doing this kind of math around the league, especially for pull hitters, and will we return to the familiar — lefty hitters as a group outperforming righty hitters (which makes sense since the majority of pitching is righty)? As recently as 2019, lefties had a collective .765 OPS compared to .753 for righties. Last season, lefties had a .697 OPS to .713 for righties. Will that return to the familiar lead to what MLB is chasing — more balls in play, fewer strikeouts and walks plus less reliance on homers for run scoring?
Will that lead to teams paying greater attention to and more dollars for lefty hitters? Were Pederson’s qualifying offer, Rizzo’s quick multiyear deal and Hernandez’s trade all bread crumbs to this offseason? The Blue Jays, Marlins and White Sox are among the clubs emphasizing the need for lefty hitters. The Yankees, too.
The Mets in recent years have lost lefty hitters Conforto, Robinson Cano and now Dom Smith, plus Nimmo is no certainty to return. But the recent past additions of Eduardo Escobar, Francisco Lindor and Daniel Vogelbach helped keep balance — along with Luis Guillorme, Jeff McNeil and eventually Brett Baty. Still, Michael Brantley (if his shoulder checks out healthy) would be a terrific left field/DH add for his professional lefty bat and temperament.
The Yankees’ problem is years in the making and well-documented, and continues even as they have made concessions away from “best bat available” to gain more lineup balance. Their fewest lefty plate appearances in a 162-game season this century came in 2021 and 2022. They played an ALCS against an Astros team with one lefty starter and no southpaw relievers, yet never started more than three lefty hitters. Yes, that reflected the injury to Andrew Benintendi, but if he had played, then another lefty, such as Carpenter or switch-hitter Oswald Cabrera, might not have.
In 2022, just two lefty hitters who signed their original pro contracts with the Yankees amassed even 200 plate appearances — Ben Gamel and Josh Smith. Perhaps it is lesson learned. The Yankees’ past three first-round picks — Austin Wells, Trey Sweeney and Spencer Jones — are lefty hitters, plus they spent nearly their entire 2019 international bonus pool to sign switch-hitter Jasson Dominguez. Wells and, to a lesser extent, Dominguez, might arrive this year. But not to begin the season.
Michael Brantley Getty Images
At this moment, Rizzo is the lone sure lefty starter. Cabrera projects to at least be a regularly used super-sub. Maybe the restricted shift will help Aaron Hicks return to being at least a useful fourth outfielder. If not him, perhaps Estevan Florial will hold that spot. But the Yankees are positioned such that whomever they sign for left field pretty much has to be a lefty hitter, with Benintendi seeming to be their preferred choice.
If Aaron Judge were to leave, the Yankees would probably be best served trying to find two lefty-hitting outfielders. And their bench, even beyond Cabrera, needs an upgrade over Marwin Gonzalez with a better versatile player who bats lefty. They could sign free agent Jace Peterson or trade for Arizona’s Josh Rojas or Minnesota’s Nick Gordon. The Twins and especially the Diamondbacks are deep in lefty hitters, and this might be a particularly good market to maximize that strength.
It therefore also would be a good moment to be a lefty-hitting free agent — teams are more than ever going to talk themselves into the upside of flawed players such as Bellinger, Conforto and Gallo.
Because when it comes to where offense is going in 2023, no team will want to be left out.