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There’s no doubt that NFL Wild Card Weekend lived up to its name, with four underdogs cashing and three backup quarterbacks putting on performances that will be remembered for years … in the best and worst ways.
Things should mostly return to normal this week with seven of the remaining eight teams riding the passers that got them here in the first place – or, in San Francisco’s case, the record-setting rookie who just can’t seem to be shaken across an entire game.
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This week’s slate has already seen some significant movement over the last 24-to-48 hours, and as we saw with Saturday’s nightcap, it pays to buy at the right time. Here are the latest Divisional Round odds at BetMGM as of Tuesday afternoon and which two sides we’re targeting early in the week:
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NFL Divisional Round betting odds, point spreads (via BetMGM)
Jaguars @ Chiefs (-8.5) Giants @ Eagles (-7.5) Bengals @ Bills (-4.5) Cowboys @ 49ers (-3.5)
Eagles -7.5 vs. Giants
This game briefly opened at Eagles -7.5, briefly bounced down to -7 and returned to its opening price as of Tuesday. I’m gladly buying at either price for the best team in the NFC, which beat up on its division rival earlier this year and is built to do it again on Saturday.
For as good as Daniel Jones looked in his playoff debut (301 yards, 2 TD), it’s important to remember that it came against one of the absolute worst pass defenses in the NFL. That won’t be the case this week against Philadelphia, which ranks first in pass defense DVOA and passing yards allowed (179.8 YPG) and held Jones to his third-worst output of the season (169 yards) in a 48-22 win in Week 14.
Jalen Hurts’ lingering shoulder injury is the biggest question hanging over this game, but the Eagles didn’t need much from their MVP contender in either win over New York this season, instead picking on the Giants’ horrid run defense. I’d expect a similar approach in what should be a comfortable win for Sunday’s hosts.
Jalen Hurts Getty Images
49ers -3.5 vs. Cowboys
San Francisco opened as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday night, but the money immediately came in the Cowboys, who are catching just 3.5 points as of Tuesday. I think that early movement is in the wrong direction, and I’ll happily buy now before smart bettors come to their senses late in the week.
I was really impressed with what I saw in the 49ers’ blowout victory last week, which was par for the course for a team that ranks second in DVOA and first in weighted DVOA amid an active 11-game win streak. Meanwhile, Dallas ranks outside of the top five in both metrics after a lousy finish to the season that doesn’t just go away with last week’s rout in Tampa Bay.
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The Cowboys were able to tee off on Tom Brady and Co. thanks to the Buccaneers’ floundering run game, but they’ll face a much stiffer test against San Francisco’s relentless run game and general embarrassment of riches on offense. Conversely, Dak Prescott returned to form while facing virtually no pressure from Tampa Bay’s defense, though I’m mighty skeptical that he can stay turnover-free with this ferocious Niners front bearing down every snap.
Here’s another X-factor for this game: San Francisco will have had eight days of rest between last week’s win and Sunday’s home tilt, while Dallas will be operating on six days’ rest after Monday’s win. With how physically imposing and schematically stressful the 49ers are for opposing teams, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kyle Shanahan’s group pile it on in the second half once again.