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The Nashville Predators are not done just yet.
After a drab start to the NHL season, the Preds have won four games in a row and are 7-1-2 in their last 10 contests to push themselves within one point of the Edmonton Oilers (with three games in hand) for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
Will the Predators continue their charge up the standings? Or is this just smoke and mirrors?
Predators vs. Maple Leafs prediction
For most of this season the Predators have looked pedestrian. In fact, before their 7-1-2 heater, Nashville had dropped six consecutive games and looked destined to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2013-14 (not including the bubble season).
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All of Nashville’s underlying metrics supported that this was a mediocre team. Through their first 29 games, the Preds ranked 21st in 5-on-5 goal differential, 21st in shot attempt rate and 22nd in expected goal percentage. There was nothing that suggested that the Predators were about to go on a run. But then goaltender Juuse Saros got hot.
Saros came into the season as a Vezina Trophy contender, but he got off to a rough start to the season and wasn’t able to be the safety valve for a team that was playing poorly in front of him. That’s all changed now, though, as Saros has been the league’s hottest goaltender over the last month.
In fact, the only thing that has significantly changed for Nashville over this 7-1-2 run is that the team’s save percentage jumped from .907 to .933. Other than the goaltending, the Predators remain pretty ordinary — especially on defense.
Predators goalie Juuse Saros Getty Images
Over their last 10 games, Nashville ranks 31st in expected goals allowed and 30th in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Despite allowing 3.31 expected goals and 14.4 high-danger chances per 60 at even strength, the Preds are conceding just 2.26 goals per hour, which is the 10th-best mark in the NHL in that span.
Those are dangerous numbers to be dealing against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Even with Auston Matthews a doubt for Wednesday night, the Leafs have an electric attack and one of the league’s most potent power plays. Matthews’ absence absolutely would sting, but there’s still more than enough scoring talent to believe that Toronto should be able to post a crooked number against a leaky defense that is just getting bailed out by all-world goaltending right now.
On the other end of the ice, the Leafs are dealing with a bit of a goaltending dilemma. After strong starts to the season, both Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray have started to put up some inconsistent performances and don’t seem all that likely to keep any team at bay right now.
Betting on the NHL?
And as poor as the Predators defense has been lately, the offense is clicking. Nashville is scoring 3.4 goals and generating 3.1 expected goals per 60 minutes over their recent hot streak.
Matthews’ status and Saros’ hot streak are keeping this over/under at a very reasonable number on Wednesday night. Back the over and hope that Saros comes back to Earth, even if just a little bit.
Predators vs. Maple Leafs prediction
Over six total goals (-102, FanDuel)