The NFL playoffs have arrived, and a couple of the usual suspects are missing from the lineup. The Kansas City Chiefs failed to reach the playoffs, which means we’ll have a new AFC representative in the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2021 season. On the NFC side, the Detroit Lions also failed to clinch a postseason berth, meaning that both No. 1 seeds from the 2024 season missed the dance this year.
Speaking of No. 1 seeds, the 14-win Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks conquered their conferences this season, providing each team a well-earned break on wild-card weekend while the rest of the league’s Super-Bowl hopefuls try to avoid elimination. There are some exciting first-round matchups to discuss, and that’s exactly what we’re going to do.
Jeff Howe provides a first look at each of the six wild-card week matchups, while The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, powered by Austin’s Mock’s NFL Projection Model, reveals the odds all 14 teams have to win their respective conferences as well as the Super Bowl. Let’s start in the AFC:
No. 2 New England Patriots (14-3) vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
The Patriots’ last playoff home game? Mike Vrabel and the Tennessee Titans ended the Tom Brady era.
The Patriots’ last playoff home win? That was seven years ago against the Chargers. In a season when so many things seemed to come full circle in New England, Vrabel and the Patriots will attempt to knock off a familiar postseason foe to shift the new era into another gear. They’re 3-0 against the Chargers in playoff games in the Super Bowl era, including two when Vrabel was a player.
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has come as advertised, but he took over the league a whole lot faster than anyone could have imagined. Maye led the NFL with a 72.0 completion percentage and 113.5 passer rating, ranked fourth with 4,394 passing yards and third with 31 touchdowns.
Vrabel led the Patriots to 14 wins, tied for the second most in franchise history. (They were 14-32 in their previous 46 games, by the way.)
The Chargers were quietly one of the more consistent teams in the league this season. If they didn’t falter in Week 17 against the Texans, the Chargers would’ve played the Broncos for the AFC West title in Week 18. But without that on the table, Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh rested quarterback Justin Herbert and some key players in the finale.
Herbert had an outstanding season and should make a dent in the MVP voting. And quite frankly, he needed to be great without his top-flight starting tackles. Herbert was sacked 54 times, one shy of the league high.
Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, a head coaching candidate, has led a solid unit in two seasons on the job. They’re in the top eight in points, total yards, rushing yards and passing yards allowed, so it won’t be easy for Maye and Co. to put up points this weekend.
No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) vs. No. 6 Buffalo Bills (12-5)
Rookie head coach Liam Coen led the Jaguars to a 13-4 record, matching Jacksonville’s win total from the previous two seasons combined, and he has put a charge into an offense that ranked 26th in scoring in 2024. The Jaguars have averaged 32.8 points per game since Week 9, the second most in the NFL over that span.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence also wrapped his best season with 4,007 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns and nine rushing scores. He has also only committed one turnover in his past six games, including his first career four-game streak from Weeks 13-16. Defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile’s group was second in the NFL with 31 takeaways and No. 1 against the run, which are two key elements in the postseason.
The Jaguars outscored opponents by an average of 19.1 points during their eight-game winning streak, and they needed every one of those victories to retake the AFC South crown from the Texans for the first time since 2022.
But they’ll have to take down the Bills, who might be a sleeping giant in an AFC playoff field that’s short on experience. Reigning MVP Josh Allen ceded the AFC East (and perhaps his MVP) to Maye and the Patriots, but that’ll be a footnote if the Bills can topple the Chiefs-less field.
Allen and the Bills have won at least one playoff game in five consecutive seasons, but they also opened the postseason at home each of those years. They lost their last road wild-card game, which was Allen’s playoff debut.
No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) vs. No. 5 Houston Texans (12-5)
The Texans should be well-prepared for this role reversal. Often viewed in recent years as the division champion most ripe for an upset, the Texans enter the postseason with a league-best nine-game winning streak and quite possibly the most dangerous wild-card team in the field.
But remember, the Texans have won a home wild-card game in each of the past two postseasons — as underdogs — so they know how the Ravens feel right now. While the Steelers might be disrespected on a national scale after an up-and-down season, the Texans can’t take the bait.
The Texans allowed the second fewest points in the NFL, surrendering the top spot to the Seahawks after an uncharacteristic showing in a 38-30 victory against the Colts in Week 18. They’re paced by edge rushers Danielle Hunter (15 sacks) and Will Anderson (12 sacks), while coach DeMeco Ryans’ scheme has made life miserable for opponents.
If quarterback C.J. Stroud and the offense, particularly aided by a reshaped line, can do their part, the Texans will be capable of knocking off anyone.
Of course, they’ll start with the Steelers, who beat their rival Baltimore Ravens in the final game of the season to win the AFC North.
The Steelers swept the Ravens for the fourth time in six seasons to secure their first division title since 2020, and they ended the Ravens’ two-year reign in the process.
But the Steelers need to do more than just qualify, and their offseason addition of quarterback Aaron Rodgers spoke to the urgency of the situation. They’ve lost six consecutive playoff games since their last victory in the 2016 postseason, and Steelers fans were calling for coach Mike Tomlin’s job after they dropped to 6-6 with a home loss to the Bills. (To that point, five of the Steelers’ six losses came against teams that qualified for the playoffs, so it’s not like they were making a habit of giving away opportunities.)
But if the Steelers lose their third consecutive home playoff game, questions may linger about Tomlin and the direction of the franchise.
No. 2 Chicago Bears (11-6) vs. No. 7 Green Bay Packers (9-7-1)
This latest iteration of this old-school rivalry figures to be a beauty. Throw in some snow, and the nostalgia will be through the still-nonexistent roof.
Rookie coach Ben Johnson took over a team that had four consecutive losing seasons, and they’ve got a chance to win their first playoff game in 15 years. The Bears are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2020, and they’re NFC North champs for the first time since 2018. It’s a new era in Chicago with Johnson and second-year quarterback Caleb Williams.
It’ll have to be, too, because the Bears haven’t beaten the Packers in the playoffs since 1941. (That’s not exactly fair. Their only other meeting was in the 2010 NFC title game.) The Packers lead the all-time series, 109-97-6, although the Bears have won two of the past three.
The Packers have lost four consecutive games, joining the 1986 Jets, 1989 Lions and 2024 Steelers as the only playoff teams to close the regular season on such a long skid. And in words not often uttered, the Packers will attempt to be more like the Jets, who were the only team in that group to rally for a postseason win.
It won’t be easy for the Packers. Quarterback Jordan Love, who sat out the final two games, hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since Dec. 14, and the defense was leaking before linebacker Micah Parsons’ torn ACL, but it’s been far less threatening in his absence.
The Packers have been the No. 7 seed during all three seasons with Love as the starter. They won a wild-card game during the 2023 postseason, but they’ve been eliminated by the NFC’s Super Bowl representative in both prior appearances.
No. 3 Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) vs. No. 6 San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
The 49ers’ six-game winning streak came to a halt Saturday in a 13-3 loss to the Seahawks. And while they looked outclassed in the finale, the Niners were 4-4 against playoff teams this season and beat a couple of division-winners during their most recent streak.
Coach Kyle Shanahan has won two playoff games in all four appearances with the Niners, and he is 2-2 on the road. He is also 2-1 against Eagles coach Nick Sirianni, although the loss came three years ago in the NFC Championship Game.
The Niners have again been inundated with injuries, but running back Christian McCaffrey played every game for the second time since 2020. He amassed 2,126 yards from scrimmage — more than when he led the league in 2023 — and 17 touchdowns.
The Eagles were a confounding defending champion throughout the regular season. They enjoyed a pair of four-game winning streaks sandwiched around a two-game skid, then they alternated a three-game slide with a three-game winning streak.
Their offense was wildly inconsistent, as the line regressed for the first time in years, and running back Saquon Barkley tallied 1,413 yards from scrimmage — 870 fewer than a season ago. The defense delivered some Super Bowl-worthy performances against the Packers, Lions and Bills, and it’s a good enough unit to give the Eagles a chance in the postseason if quarterback Jalen Hurts and the offense can just be steady enough.
No. 4 Carolina Panthers (8-9) vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Rams (12-5)
The Panthers stunned the Rams, 31-28, in a Week 13 game that altered the course of the NFC standings, as it both validated the Panthers’ turnaround and erased the Rams’ cushion over the Seahawks in the NFC West.
At the time, the Rams looked like the best team in the NFL, riding a six-game winning streak before they faltered against the Panthers. They finished 3-3 down the stretch, and while there’s no shame in losing to the Seahawks in Week 16, it was far more puzzling a week later when they fell to the Atlanta Falcons.
Rams coach Sean McVay took over an organization coming off a 12-year playoff drought and has guided them to the postseason in seven of his nine seasons, including the Super Bowl run in 2021 when quarterback Matthew Stafford arrived. Stafford, a candidate for his first MVP award, led the league’s best offense, and defensive coordinator Chris Shula has launched his own head coaching candidacy with a top-10 unit.
The Panthers only won three games since the trade deadline, yet still overtook the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for their first NFC South title in a decade. They’re the division’s third sub-.500 champion since 2014, but they’ll be happy to know the 2014 Panthers rode that path to a playoff victory.
Coach Dave Canales and quarterback Bryce Young are making their playoff debuts, but they’re hardly alone for an organization that hasn’t been in the postseason in eight years.
The Panthers will attempt to beat the Rams twice in the same season for the fourth time, as the former NFC West foes — “west” was apparently a loose term in those days — used to square off on an annual basis.
The Panthers beat the St. Louis Rams during their only playoff meeting in the 2003 postseason.