1 Chris Sale Boston Red Sox SP
Injury: Right wrist surgery (fracture) Calling it a fractured wrist is technically true, but it’s only part of the story. A comeback line drove broke Chris Sale’s finger on July 17 in his second start back from a broken rib. Then, while on the injured list with said broken finger, he fell off his bike and broke his wrist. Between all that and Tommy John surgery, Sale threw only 48 1/3 innings from 2020-22. He has not been healthy and dominant in the same season since 2018, though he is healthy now, and a full participant in early spring workouts. The Red Sox have built a high-variance roster and Sale is very much a part of that. If he’s healthy and effective, he could help Boston contend for a postseason sport. If not, they have almost no path to October. Lefty James Paxton deserves a mention here as well. He had Tommy John surgery in April 2021 and has not appeared in the majors since. Paxton was close to returning last year when he suffered a lat strain in August. He’s said to be healthy and on track to be ready for Opening Day. Like Sale, a healthy Paxton would do wonders for Boston’s contention hopes in 2023.
2 Fernando Tatis San Diego Padres SS
Injury: Left wrist surgery (fracture) and left shoulder surgery (torn labrum) I am kind of cheating here. Fernando Tatis Jr. missed all of last season with a pair of wrist surgeries and shoulder surgery, yes, though he also tested positive for a performance-enhancing drug and was hit with an 80-game suspension. While serving said suspension he opted to have his troublesome shoulder repaired, and also undergo a second wrist surgery to further stabilize the joint (the first wrist surgery was last offseason). TatÃs is eligible to return April 20, in San Diego’s 21st game of the season, and he recently started swinging and hitting as part of his rehab work. The Padres made it to the NLCS without Tatis last year, but he is the type of player who can swing the balance of power in the NL West race and help put San Diego over the top in October. It remains to be seen how productive Tatis will be when he returns. The bet here is he’s still a dynamic, game-changing player.
3 Tim Anderson Chicago White Sox SS
Injury: Left middle finger surgery (torn sagittal band) Groin and finger issues limited Tim Anderson to 79 games last season, including none after Aug. 6. He had season-ending finger surgery soon thereafter and should be ready to go for Opening Day. With Anderson in the lineup last year, the White Sox went 42-37. Without him, they went 39-44. That overstates Anderson’s impact, but make no mistake, the White Sox are much better team with him at shortstop and in the leadoff spot. He is one of the best hitters for average in a sport dominated by strikeouts, and the drop off between Anderson and his replacement (Leury GarcÃa) is massive. The AL Central is winnable and Chicago’s best chance at a division title involves Anderson doing his thing for 150 games.
4 Kenta Maeda Minnesota Twins SP
Injury: Tommy John surgery Three years ago, Kenta Maeda was the AL Cy Young runner-up during the 60-game pandemic season. He then slogged through 2021 while dealing with leg and elbow issues and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery that September. Maeda spent last season rehabbing — there was a chance he could have pitched for the Twins in September, though they opted not to push him once they fell out of the race — and is a full go in spring training. The Twins have built their rotation around very good starters while lacking a bonafide ace. I’m not sure Maeda can pitch at an ace level in Year 1 with his new elbow ligament, but Minnesota is certainly better off with him in the rotation than not. There are a few other injured Twins we could have considered here in addition to Maeda (and Buxton). Alex Kirilloff had his second right wrist surgery in as many years last August and Royce Lewis tore his right ACL for the second time in 18 months last June. Also, don’t sleep on righty Jorge Alcala. He was limited to two appearances last year by an elbow injury that required a non-Tommy John surgery procedure. Alcala, Kirilloff, and Lewis are all expected to be a factor for Minnesota in 2023.
5 Mike Soroka Atlanta Braves SP
Injury: Right Achilles surgery It has been a long time since we last saw Mike Soroka pitch in a major-league game. He blew out his Achilles tendon fielding a ball on Aug. 3, 2020, then tore it again while simply walking through the clubhouse in June 2021. Soroka has completed his rehab and he made six minor-league rehab starts late last season, setting him up to compete for a rotation spot this spring. It’s hard to believe, but Soroka is still won’t turn 26 until August. In his only full MLB season (2019), he was the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up and he finished sixth in the NL Cy Young voting. Can Soroka still pitch at that level following two Achilles tears? It remains to be seen. If he can, he is the caliber of player who could vault the Braves ahead of the Mets and make them the clear favorite in the NL East.
6 Michael Conforto San Francisco Giants RF
Injury: Right shoulder surgery Michael Conforto hurt his shoulder diving for a ball during an offseason workout last January, an injury that required surgery and led to him remaining unemployed all year. No team signed him as a free agent following the owner-initiated lockout, so he spent the year rehabbing at home before the Giants signed him to a two-year contract (with an opt out) this offseason. You have to go back to 2019 for the last time Conforto was a clearly above-average player in a full 162-game season. It’s been a while. That said, he turns 30 in March, so it’s not like he’s over the hill, plus he was a darn good player for a long time earlier in his career. I’m not sure the Giants can compete for the NL West title this year, but a healthy Conforto could put them over the top for a wild-card spot. Ditto right-hander Anthony DeSclafani, who was limited to five starts by ankle surgery last year.
7 Mitch Garver Texas Rangers DH
Injury: Right forearm surgery (torn flexor tendon) The Rangers invested heavily in their rotation this offseason, though they have not touched their offense at all, the same offense that finished 12th in runs. That’s not bad, but it’s not exactly high-powered either, and Texas received little from left fielders (.186/.253/.256!) or designated hitters (.227/.304/.381). Mitch Garver can’t do anything about left field, but he can help at DH. His injury limited him to 54 games last season and also allowed Jonah Heim, who rated as one of the best pitch-framers in baseball, to emerge as the everyday catcher. Heim’s prowess allows the Rangers to slot Garver in at DH most of the time this year. That could help keep him healthy and productive. This is a player who averaged 28 homers per 162 games while dealing with the rigors of catching. With less wear and tear as a DH, Garver could have even more impact, which would be a nice boost for a Texas team looking to get back into the postseason.
8 Mike Zunino Cleveland Guardians C
Injury: Thoracic outlet syndrome surgery No team struck out as infrequently as the Guardians in 2022. They fanned in only 18.2 percent of their plate appearances, the lowest rate in baseball by 1.3 percentage points. The last team with a lower strikeout rate in a full 162-game season was the 2017 Astros (17.3 percent), and that team’s legacy is, uh, complicated. Anyway, it’s a bit amusing then that Cleveland turned to Mike Zunino behind the plate. He owns a career 34.7 percent strikeout rate, one of the highest in the game since his debut in 2013. Zunino offers power (28 homers per 162 games in his career) and very good defense, and after receiving a ghastly .180/.267/.267 batting line from their catchers last year, I’m guessing the Guardians will overlook Zunino’s strikeouts to get more production overall. The AL Central is there for the taking and Zunino, even as flawed as he is, has a chance to be a massive upgrade behind the plate for the defending division champs.
9 Michael Brantley Houston Astros DH
Injury: Right shoulder surgery (torn labrum) Shoulder trouble hampered Michael Brantley much of last year and ended his season on June 26. He had surgery a few weeks later and the Astros won the World Series without him, which is a testament to the quality of the rest of their roster. That isn’t to say Brantley is a luxury or nonessential player. Houston’s chances of repeating as World Series champs — MLB has not had a repeat champion since the 1998-2000 Yankees — are better with a healthy Brantley. I have Brantley this low in the rankings only because the Astros are so good, and I think they’re AL West favorites with or without him. That isn’t intended to diminish Brantley as a player though. He is excellent, and having him for a full season in 2023 after only 64 games in 2022 makes the Astros that much more formidable.
10 Daniel Hudson Los Angeles Dodgers RP