Major League Baseball wants teams to run more and they have incentivized teams to do so.
The bases are bigger, reducing the distance to second by about 4.5 inches. Successful steals in the minors for the half year the bases were used went up by 1.5 percentage points, on average.
But that’s not all. Pitchers can now only attempt two pickoff attempts per plate appearance with a runner on base. And there’s the pitch timer now, which can only be reset twice via even a half-hearted pickoff attempt, too. When you combine all three things in the minors, in 2022, stolen base attempts and stolen base success rate both increased — stolen base attempts per game increased 21% (from 2.23 in 2019 to 2.81) and success rate on steals increased 9.8 percentage points (from 68.2% to 78%).
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So our job, in advance of the season starting, is to identify in our drafts the players who may run more given the league is on its knees begging teams to, and one can assume that the teams will comply. After all, it’s free money now.
There is no way to back test this. We are flying blind. Obviously the players who have stolen bases at a decent clip should get more attempts and conversions. That’s baked in. But what about the fast players who have been reticent to run? Can we expect them to at least top double-digits in the category, picking off bags we need essentially for free because steals at this level are not baked into their projections and ADP.
How do we determine who’s fast? It’s not sprint speed we should be looking at, according to Jeff Zimmerman of Fangraphs, it’s home-to-first times. So I’m looking for qualifying players who rank in the 75th percentile in home to first (4.32 seconds or faster) and who stole single-digit bases in 2022. In other words, no one is drafting them for their steals, really, but they have the tools to exploit these new rules and run somewhat. We get this data courtesy of Statcast.
Three Mets are on the list. I get that Buck Showalter doesn’t like to run. His Mets finished 12th in the league in steals in 2022. But again, things have changed. Station-to-station baseball is being discouraged.
Let’s start with the best candidate to run more — Jeff McNeil. He was four-for-four stealing last year. Only five qualifying hitters were faster than McNeil’s 4.16 home-to-first time (yes, McNeil gets a head start as a lefty). I will go out on a limb and say McNeil steals 10 bags this year and that makes him a steal at his ADP (162 the last week in 30 NFBC drafts).
The second-fastest player on the list, another lefty, Brandon Nimmo, famously is a fast guy who doesn’t run.
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“Let’s see how the bigger bases, how this works and it’s something that I think I can take advantage of, but only when it makes sense,” Nimmo said this spring.
Hardly a ringing endorsement. But if we squint, can we see 10 steals from the man with the 10th-fastest home-to-first time? Yes, he was 3-for-5 last year and just 23-for-37 in his career. That’s 62%. But can he get to 75% with the new rules? Should he try? Nimmo is exactly the guy who is being encouraged to run. So hoping for 10 steals while basically paying for five (ADP: 168) could be enough to pick up a point or two in the standings by itself.
Eduardo Escobar is also on the list, but we’re ignoring him as he’s not mixed-league relevant according to ADP, and it seems like third base is likely to be Brett Baty’s job in New York.
The third fastest player on the list among non-base-stealers is actually a catcher who is slated to start in the outfield. No, not Daulton Varsho. More like the poor man’s Varsho — MJ Melendez. I’m shocked by how well Melendez runs (12th fastest time). He attempted a steal about every 10 games in the minors, on average. He had eight attempts in 150 games last year between MiLB and MLB. Melendez has a good eye and walks a lot. The Royals will probably need to manufacture runs. Could there be a free 6-to-10 steals from Melendez (consensus projection is four steals). I think so. But Melendez comes off the board, on average, at pick 91, mostly for his power projection and the fact that he’s catcher qualified but not catching much. Combine his speed, the rules and the fact that he should be fresh because he’s not catching, and 12 bags is a reasonable wish. Again, the extra six or so are free.
Luis Rengifo’s slide in ADP is a mystery to me. He’s not even drafted in 12-team mixed leagues. He’s basically a $1 player in AL-only leagues. Yet he’s an above-average hitter with middling power and some projectable speed. The model says he should easily beat his composite projection of seven steals. The Bat has him with the most, at 10. I’ll take the over on 12, and I think it can be as high as 15. Rengifo stole 41 bases once in the minors.
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The next guy is interesting. He’s a righty only, so handedness is not inflating his time. Xander Bogaerts is faster than Dansby Swanson. Manny Machado was 119th in home-to-first speed but stole nine bases. Bogaerts, the 29th fastest runner home to first, has stolen as many as 15. He had eight in 2022. His composite projection is six. With these rules, he should double that and post about 12. He’s 81.3% under the old rules. If someone is going to shock us with 20 steals, I would bet it’s Bogaerts (ADP: 81).
Our final target is Ian Happ (ADP: 147). His home-to-first time is 30th, faster than Josh Rojas and Marcus Semien. Much faster than Kyle Tucker. The Cubs like to run — second in the loop last year in thefts. Happ is exactly the guy the league is thinking about with the new rules. He was nine-for-13 last year. I can see more like 20-to-25 attempts now. Let’s call it 17 steals for Happ versus his projection of eight.
Bottom line, if you invest in these five players (leaving out Escobar), there’s a decent chance you’ll gain a free 20-to-30 steals on top of the ones for which you actually pay.
(Top photo: Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports)