Major League Baseball’s exhibition season is only a day away from getting underway, bringing to an end the 2024-25 offseason. If you ask me, that makes now the perfect time to look ahead to next winter’s free-agent class.
Below, I’ve laid out my preseason top 10 free-agent rankings for the upcoming winter. At the risk of stating the obvious: a lot can change in nine months — in terms of which players make the cut; what trajectories they’re on; how I suspect their free agencies will play out; and so on. You know the drill: don’t grow attached to these names in this order.
In lieu of predicting which teams might be in on these players, I’ve included contract predictions. Rest assured: I didn’t just pull numbers from the ether. Instead, I leaned on comparative analysis with past signings. More often than not, I’ve included reference to which players (and deals) I considered to be the most relevant guideposts.
Let’s get to it.
The play: Guerrero’s game is as straightforward as it gets. He doesn’t run well and he’s never going to win another Gold Glove Award. So be it. He can really hit, and he’s both durable and young (he won’t celebrate his 27th birthday until after signing a long-term contract). Guerrero has a fast bat and impressive barrel control, a combination granting him above-average contact rates and power to all fields. Those old, seemingly overzealous comparisons to Miguel Cabrera have aged surprisingly well — to the extent that it seems reasonable to project Guerrero as a major piece of a team’s lineup for the next decade.
Vladimir Guerrero TOR • 1B • #27 BA 0.323 R 98 HR 30 RBI 103 SB 2 View Profile
The pay: Guerrero will be a fascinating case study: the public estimates about his next deal are at odds with the history of how front offices view his general profile (i.e. right-handed first basemen). To wit, Pete Alonso’s $27 million is the richest ever for a free-agent first baseman; Guerrero will make more ($28.5 million) in his final arbitration-eligible season. On top of his skill set and age, his distinction as the closest thing to an elite hitter the market will feature for a few years ought to work in his favor. I assume he’ll become the seventh free-agent hitter to clear a $35 million AAV, and he might soar even higher than that. For now, I’ll err on the conservative side. Prediction: 12 years, $456 million ($38 million AAV)
The play: Tucker was on the shortlist of best players to change teams over the offseason. He impacts the game in all phases, from contributing in each of the triple-slash categories; to having the power and speed to notch multiple 20-20 seasons; to playing Gold Glove-caliber defense in a corner. Last year would’ve represented his fourth consecutive five-plus WAR season were it not for a right shin fracture that limited him to 78 games.
Kyle Tucker CHC • RF • #30 BA 0.289 R 56 HR 23 RBI 49 SB 11 View Profile
The pay: Count Tucker as another potentially interesting case study. In terms of production, he’s undeniably one of the best 12 or so players in the sport. I’m not sure that he has the perception to match — in a sense, that makes him the inverse of Guerrero. I can theorize on why that is: he’s a low-key individual who has played alongside more established stars for the duration of his career in Houston; his game is broad rather than concentrated in a way that would have him ranked atop statistical leaderboards; and so on. My guess is some will find this prediction too aggressive at first blush — and I think that supports my point about his perception working against him. Prediction: Nine years, $333 million ($37 million AAV)
The play: Cease, now a two-time top-five finisher in Cy Young Award balloting, has elite stuff that has empowered him to average nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings for his career. Last season, he posted the best walk rate of his big-league career, issuing a free pass about every three innings. Despite Cease’s past wildness, he’s managed an ERA+ of 110 or better in four of his five full-length seasons. Another high-end season will solidify Cease as the best pitcher in this class — for now, it appears to be a three-arm race.
Dylan Cease SD • SP • #84 ERA 3.65 WHIP 1.22 IP 12.1 BB 4 K 18 View Profile
The pay: Cease has maintained this whole