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Some of the quarterbacks in this large tier have already received their second contracts—for better or for worse. Many are still on their rookie deals.
The keyword for this tier is hope. These teams are hopeful that these young quarterbacks will be quality starters—or even stars. But the jury remains out on whether that will prove to be the case.
25. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
The Colts made Richardson the fourth overall pick in 2023, and the youngster is an electrifying runner. But Richardson completed just 47.7 percent of his passes in 2024 while tossing 12 interceptions, and unless he improves markedly as a passer in his third season, the Colts will all but certainly be headed back to the drawing board under center in 2026.
24. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Not that long ago, Young appeared headed for the status of one of the bigger draft busts in recent memory. But when Young returned from his midseason benching last year, his level of play improved markedly. By year’s end, he had shown enough improvement as a passer to at the very least buy himself one more season at the helm of Carolina’s offense.
23. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
Penix is the great unknown of this list. After Kirk Cousins faltered down the stretch, Atlanta’s decision to double-down under center by drafting Penix appeared wise. He also showed some flashes in limited action. But the reality is that we have only seen three NFL starts from Penix. It’s going to be a while before we know if Penix’s ranking here is too high, too low or spot-on.
22. Drake Maye, New England Patriots
It was another dismal season in New England—one that cost first-year head coach Jerod Mayo his job. But while the third overall pick in last year’s draft won just three of 12 starts, Maye completed two-thirds of his passes and threw for 15 scores despite playing with arguably the worst assemblage of offensive talent in the NFL.
21. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Not that long ago, it appeared that Lawrence was headed for stardom. But after signing a five-year, $275 million contract extension last summer, Lawrence struggled through the worst season since his rookie year. The Jaguars hired Liam Coen as head coach in large part because of Coen’s success with Baker Mayfield in Tampa. If Lawrence doesn’t turn things around in 2025, the Jags could be staring down the barrel of some very difficult personnel decisions.
20. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Tagovailoa got his bag last year—$212.4 million over four seasons. And based strictly off his career numbers, he should be listed higher. Tagovailoa has completed over 68 percent of his passes, thrown 100 touchdown passes against 44 interceptions and posted a passer rating just under 100 with a record of 38-24 and a trip to the postseason. But Tagovailoa’s history of concussions looms like a dark cloud over his future, and one more shot to the head could legitimately end his career.
19. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
The first overall pick in 2019, Murray has flashed considerable potential over his six seasons in the NFL, both with his arm and his legs. But since winning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2019 and making the Pro Bowl in both 2020 and 2021, Murray is 14-22 as a starter and has thrown 23 interceptions, including 11 a year ago. The talent is there with the 27-year-old, but the consistency hasn’t been, setting up 2025 as something of a make-or-break campaign.
18. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears