The Kansas City Chiefs are back on top of our weekly power rankings because they’re the NFL’s most complete team. Patrick Mahomes has the offense firing on all cylinders again, ranking among the top third in yards per play (5.7) and fifth in offensive efficiency (0.12 expected points added per play, a measure of how much each snap adds to scoring chances). Add in a solid defense that is playing particularly well on third down, and it’s clear why they’re back in the contenders mix.
Plus, they’re about to get even stronger. Wide receiver Rashee Rice’s six-game suspension has ended, giving Mahomes another weapon and making an already balanced offense even more explosive.
As a reminder: These rankings differ from most of our counterparts’ in that they are not tied to win-loss records or nonquantifiable ideas such as momentum or positive vibes. They are simply a reflection of what our model says are the best teams in the NFL right now and how they should be expected to perform moving forward.
Top contenders
1. Kansas City Chiefs (3-3)
2. Green Bay Packers (3-1-1)
3. Detroit Lions (4-2)
4. Seattle Seahawks (4-2)
5. Los Angeles Rams (4-2)
6. Buffalo Bills (4-2)
The Packers have lost some luster since their Week 1 win over Detroit, but they deserve the No. 2 spot because they’re quietly playing like a powerhouse on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Jordan Love has the offense running efficiently (5.8 yards per play, eighth), and Green Bay is holding opponents to just 4.4 yards per play, the second-best mark in the NFL.
Seattle bounced back in a big way after last week’s loss to Tampa Bay. The Seahawks’ defense dominated Jacksonville, sacking Trevor Lawrence seven times and shutting down big plays all game. Even with key injuries in the secondary, the Seahawks looked fast and aggressive again. Plus, quarterback Sam Darnold played smart football and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba torched the Jaguars for 162 yards and a touchdown. Mike Macdonald’s team is 4-2 overall and 3-0 on the road, with underlying metrics that show they’re a legitimate contender.
The Bills didn’t fall far in these power rankings after losing Monday night at Atlanta for their second loss in a row. They were missing key players on both sides of the ball and, while the first half was ugly, the defense allowed just three points after halftime. Most of Buffalo’s problems Monday night – penalties, turnovers and a few bad play calls – are fixable.
Strong challengers
7. Indianapolis Colts (5-1)
8. Houston Texans (2-3)
9. Philadelphia Eagles (4-2)
If you know a Philadelphia fan of any sport, you should check in to see if they need a hug. The latest gut punch was the Eagles’ 34-17 loss at the New York Giants on Thursday night, which showed their offense may have lost its spark. Jalen Hurts isn’t getting much help, and running back Saquon Barkley has barely touched the ball lately.
The Colts’ offense has been sharp, but their defense gives up too many long drives, holding them back from a higher ranking. They win by outscoring opponents, not by stopping them. Until the defense tightens up, they will look more like a fun team to watch than a true contender.
Houston’s placement here will surprise some, but the Texans’ record doesn’t show how well they have played. Their defense ranks among the league’s most efficient outside the red zone, and they limit opponents’ big plays. Plus, the offense moves the ball better than average, even if it hasn’t always finished drives.
Solid playoff teams
10. Washington Commanders (3-3)
11. Denver Broncos (4-2)
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1)
13. Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)
Despite a 5-1 record, Tampa Bay remains outside the top 10 in our model. That’s in part because of the Buccaneers’ success being driven by unsustainably high non-red-zone offensive performance (43.9 expected points added, fifth most per TruMedia). Their red-zone efficiency (minus-1.8 EPA) and negative success-rate differential (minus-2 percent) indicate a reliance on explosive plays and defense rather than consistent offensive execution. They will be tested by an upcoming schedule that includes four of five games on the road, including against the Lions, Bills and Rams.
Denver has an offense that ranks near the bottom in success rate (38 percent, 26th) and third-down conversion (37 percent, 24th), meaning the Broncos’ wins largely have hinged on unsustainable defensive dominance.
In the hunt for playoff spots
14. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2)
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1)
Mike Tomlin has the Steelers rolling again after Aaron Rodgers started slow this week but caught fire in the second half, throwing two touchdown passes to help Pittsburgh beat Cleveland, 23-9. Why so low on these power rankings? Because their plus-12 point differential is what we would expect from a 3-2 team, not one that is 4-1. The team’s net success rate – its ability to move the chains and score – is also underwater (minus-3 percent) and in the bottom third of the NFL (24th, per TruMedia).
Average teams
16. New England Patriots (4-2)
17. Minnesota Vikings (3-2)
18. San Francisco 49ers (4-2)
Quarterback Drake Maye has been great for the Patriots, but the rest of the team hasn’t separated itself from average. The Patriots are not moving the ball much better than their opponents, they struggle to finish drives in the red zone, and they aren’t winning the turnover battle. Three of their wins have been by six points or fewer.
Below-average teams
19. Dallas Cowboys (2-3-1)
20. Atlanta Falcons (3-2)
21. Arizona Cardinals (2-4)
22. New York Giants (2-4)
23. Chicago Bears (3-2)
24. Carolina Panthers (3-3)
Carolina is climbing the ranks because its offense is generating yards and success more consistently than its opponents’. On Sunday, the Panthers rode running back Rico Dowdle’s breakout performance to a win over his old team. Dowdle racked up 239 total yards against Dallas, a franchise record, and the Panthers’ defense stuffed the Cowboys’ ground game, allowing just 31 rushing yards. Lately, their efficiency on early downs and their ability to convert crucial third downs have bolstered their scoring chances. Their defense is improving and keeping games in reach even when the offense sputters.
Rebuilding phase or dealing with significant injuries
25. Miami Dolphins (1-5)
26. Las Vegas Raiders (2-4)
27. Cleveland Browns (1-5)
28. New Orleans Saints (1-5)
29. New York Jets (0-6)
30. Baltimore Ravens (1-5)
31. Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)
32. Tennessee Titans (1-5)
Things look bleak for this group, but it’s worth noting that the Ravens have a chance to move up if star quarterback Lamar Jackson returns from injury following their bye.