FOXBORO — Call it like you see it.
That’s the job.
Always has been, always will be.
If the Patriots win big, you toss a few bouquets. When they get out-coached or outfought, you swing your hammer. And when most days fall somewhere in between, you sit with the film or make some calls for a serious analysis or report on what’s happening and what comes next.
And sometimes, you toss out a prediction or two. But since when did accountability become a one-way street?
Introducing my second annual accountability column, where I retrace where I was most wrong about the Patriots this season.
Dating back to the start of the draft, here are my biggest whiffs on the 2025 Pats:
Endorsing a Kayshon Boutte trade
On the eve of the NFL Draft, ESPN reported the Patriots had deemed Kayshon Boutte “expendable,” a soft way of saying they were more than happy to trade him pending what they could fetch in return.
Less than a day later, I endorsed a potential Boutte trade, citing a crowded depth chart after Stefon Diggs’ arrival, Boutte’s lack of an elite skill and zero impact on special teams.
What a dope.
Through nine games, Boutte leads the Patriots in receiving touchdowns, with 23 catches for 431 yards and five scores. He ranks second in the NFL in yards per catch. He’s established himself as one of the league’s best deep-ball trackers and a menace at the catch point.
At 71.4%, Boutte boasts the third-highest catch rate on contested catches among receivers with at least five contested targets, per Pro Football Focus. Boutte, as I’ve written and said and tweeted already, has matured more than any young Patriots player I’ve covered in eight years. He is a legitimate starting-caliber receiver, not a leftover draft pick filling a starting job on a terrible team.
Boutte’s rapid growth also surprised high-ranking members of the organization. But just because I have company doesn’t make me any less wrong.
Good for Boutte.
Will Campbell’s tiny wingspan is too big a risk
Maybe Campbell’s outlier arm length and wingspan will come back to bite him later in his career, but I will take the L on this already.
Grading on a rookie curve, Campbell has thrived. On a normal curve, he’s done much more than survive as the Patriots’ starting left tackle.
Through nine games, the 21-year-old has graded out as an above-average pass-protector and run-blocker among offensive tackles, per Pro Football Focus. Campbell’s run-blocking has improved sharply since the start of the season and he’s allowed pressure on 5.2% of his pass-blocking snaps, per the Herald’s charting. Yes, he recorded the shortest wingspan among offensive tackles at the NFL combine since 2011, but it hasn’t mattered.
The Patriots’ bet on Campbell was always clear, even when I felt they should have drafted Missouri’s Armand Membou instead. They believed Campbell’s other traits — his quickness, power, flexibility and play demeanor — are not just elite, but good enough to compensate for his wingspan in the way short quarterbacks (Drew Brees and Russell Wilson, to name two) offset height concerns with plus accuracy, decision-making and a quick trigger.
Campbell does not need to become a Brees-level left tackle to justify his selection. He must develop from a starting-caliber rookie to a Pro Bowl-caliber veteran. Nine games in, so far, so good.
And go ahead, if you must, with more cracks about his T-Rex arms. I did. But don’t forget: the T-Rex still ruled the animal kingdom.
TreVeyon Henderson will be their best rookie
Whoops.
Henderson may have been the MVP of the Patriots’ summer, with his dazzling play speed, soft hands and preseason highlights, but since the games started counting, he’s been closer to a zero.
Henderson has been middle-of-the-pack among all Patriots rookies. In most games, he’s been an impatient runner and left yards on the field, ranking sixth-worst by rush yards over expected, per Next Gen Stats. Henderson has also struggled in pass protection, a stark change from his college tape and reputation.
The good news is he’s coming around with 130 rushing yards over the past two weeks, almost half of his season total. But it’s a long, long way to catch Campbell and kicker Andy Borregales for best performers in this rookie class, and even with his great speed, Henderson won’t get there.
Circling the Bengals game
Best game of the season? Ha!
Immediately after the Patriots’ schedule was released in May, I broke down the best and worst of this year’s slate, and the Bengals game on Nov. 23 was my best pick. Granted, Joe Burrow’s turf toe injury threw this prediction into the trash bin, but overlooking how bad the Bengals defense is proved to be a huge mistake unto itself.
Cincinnati stinks. They’re 3-6. Their defense ranks dead last by Expected Points Added (EPA) and the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA. Anyone and everyone can throw and run on the Bengals.
Here were my other options for best game: at Buffalo, versus Buffalo, at Baltimore and this Sunday’s battle down in Tampa Bay.
After hitting on Drake Maye’s matchup with Burrow, I signed off the Cincinnati pick writing this: “With any luck, playoff implications will be on the line between two teams expected to be in the Wild Card hunt. If the Patriots win in Cincy, expect the league to take notice.”
Which brings us to one last swing and a miss …
The Patriots finish 9-8
Let’s get ahead of this one, too.
Barring an injury to Maye or a similarly catastrophic event, the Pats will win double-digit games.
They’ve got two games with the Jets on tap, plus visits from the Dolphins and Giants and a trip to Cincinnati. Already, they are among the best teams in the league.
Cheers to them, and see you at this same time next year.