The PGA Tour is in Texas for one more week before the season’s first major, heading to TPC San Antonio for the 2026 Valero Texas Open. It’s the final chance for players to earn a spot or tune up their game for the 90th Masters Tournament in Augusta, Georgia, leading to a fairly strong field in San Antonio, Texas. Below, we look at Valero Texas Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions before the first roound begins Thursday.
Ludvig Aberg, Russell Henley and Tommy Fleetwood are tied atop the favorites board, entering the week with odds of +1600. Past champion Jordan Spieth is up there, as well, at +1800, with Collin Morikawa (+2000) playing his first event since injuring his back at the Players Championship. Brian Harman is the defending champion and is +6000 to win in back-to-back years.
TPC San Antonio (par 72) is 7,435 yards long and though it features a fairly open layout, it can be a difficult course to score on. The winning score was only 9-under-par last year after being 20-under in 2024 when Akshay Bhatia won, with the average winning score being 13-under since 2010. Wind can be a major factor at this course, as are the bunkers that protect the greens.
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Valero Texas Open – Expert picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 4:54 p.m. ET.
Jordan Spieth (+1800)
Spieth is at home in Texas this week, playing a tournament he won in 2021. Most recently, he finished 10th in 2024 and 12th last year, so he has some excellent course history at TPC San Antonio. And his game is trending in the right direction with 3 top-12 finishes in his last 4 starts.
Keith Mitchell (+3000)
Mitchell soared up the leaderboard at the Texas Children’s Houston Open Sunday with a final-round 65, finishing T-14. It was his second top-15 finish in his last 4 starts and has finished 14th and 12th in back-to-back years at the Valero Texas Open.
Alex Noren (+3500)
Noren has only played here twice (missed last year with a torn hamstring), but he finished 14th in 2024 and 15th in 2023, so he played well both times. Additionally, he’s come in 32nd or better in 4 straight starts this season, including a T-12 at the Genesis Invitational.
Valero Texas Open picks – Contenders
Austin Smotherman (+6600)
Since his T-2 at the Cognizant Classic, Smotherman has had a WD, a T-13 and a missed cut in his last 3 starts, so it’s been a mixed bag. But among players in the field this week, he ranks seventh in SG: tee-to-green, showing his ball-striking is on point right now.
Ryo Hisatsune (+4000)
Hisatsune is fifth in SG: tee-to-green in the last 3 months among players playing this week, only losing strokes on the greens – and barely (-0.07). After finishing T-78 here 2 years ago, he tied for fifth last year and has already notched 4 top-13 finishes this season.
Denny McCarthy (+4500)
McCarthy missed back-to-back cuts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players, but since then has finished T-26 and T-12, which is encouraging. His course history is even better, finishing as the runner-up in 2024 and tying for 18th last year; he also finished 18th in 2022.
Valero Texas Open picks – Long shots
Adrien Dumont de Chassart (+10000)
Dumont de Chassart missed the cut in his lone start at the Valero Texas Open in 2024, but it’s his recent form that makes him intriguing. The 26-year-old pro from Belgium finished between T-12 and T-26 in 4 straight starts, including a T-12 at the Houston Open last week.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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