The PGA Tour is in Texas for the second straight week, as TPC San Antonio is hosting the 2026 Valero Texas Open. The first round begins on Thursday morning in San Antonio, Texas, as players get one last chance to prepare for next week’s first major of the season — the Masters in Augusta, Georgia. Below, we search for the best value prop bets for the Valero Texas Open and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions before the first round begins Thursday.
Collin Morikawa was one of the top players in the field, but he withdrew Tuesday as he continues to recover from a back injury and hopes to be ready for the Masters.. Gary Woodland, Nicolai Hojgaard and Daniel Berger have also withdrawn. Ludvig Aberg (+1400) enters as the tournament favorite, with Jordan Spieth, Russell Henley and Tommy Fleetwood also among the strongest contenders at +1600.
TPC San Antonio (par 72, 7,435 yards) is a challenging course, especially when the wind blows. It features an abundance of bunkers guarding the greens, and though it’s an open layout, greens are tough to hit – especially given the length of the par 3s.
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Valero Texas Open – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET.
Jordan Spieth (+300)
Spieth won this event in 2021 and has 2 top-12 finishes in the last 2 years. His game is trending up heading into the Masters, notching 3 top-12 finishes in his last 4 starts this season.
Valero Texas Open: Outright winner picks
Keith Mitchell (+600)
Mitchell is an excellent driver of the ball, which is important at TPC San Antonio. He’s finished 12th and 14th in his last 2 starts at this event and is riding some momentum after finishing 14th in Houston last week.
Valero Texas Open – Top-10 picks
Alex Noren (+333)
In his last 2 starts at this event, Noren finished 14th (2024) and 15th (2023). He’s far enough removed from last year’s hamstring injury that caused a delayed start to his season in 2025 that health is certainly no longer an issue.
Ryo Hisatsune (+333)
Hisatsune is another player who’s driving it well right now, with his overall ball-striking statistics also putting him among the tour’s best (5th in SG: tee-to-green in this field in last 3 months). He tied for fifth at this tournament last year after finishing 78th the year prior in his debut.
Valero Texas Open – Top-20 picks
Austin Smotherman (+225)
Smotherman ranks seventh in SG: tee-to-green in the last 3 months among players in the field this week, showing how well he’s hitting the ball despite some struggles on the greens. He finished T-13 in his latest start this season and also had a T-2 at the Cognizant Classic.
Adrien Dumont de Chassart (+275)
Dumont de Chassart has only played this event once, missing the cut in 2024. He’s finished T-26 or better in each of his last 4 starts, including a T-12 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open last week.
Denny McCarthy (+150)
McCarthy has always been a good driver and typically excels on the greens, using that to finish T-26 and T-12 in his last 2 starts this season. He was the runner-up in 2024 and tied for 18th last year.
Valero Texas Open – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Jordan Spieth (-105) vs. Russell Henley (-118)
Henley is a great fit for this course with how accurate he is and how well he putts, but Spieth has some great history at TPC San Antonio and is playing well right now.
Valero Texas Open – Top Swedish
Alex Noren (+200)
Noren’s top competition in this market is the tournament favorite, Aberg, who is -120 to be the top Swedish player. Noren has never finished worse than 15th here and should be able to navigate the winds if they become a factor.
Valero Texas Open – Top Japanese
Ryo Hisatsune (+160)
Hideki Matsuyama (+105) is the favorite to be the top Japanese player in the field but Hisatsune is a strong challenger, especially with how well he’s hitting the ball right now.
Valero Texas Open – First-round leader
Keith Mitchell (+4500)
Mitchell opened with a 64 last year to be 1 shot off the lead after Round 1. He’s 41st in Round 1 scoring average this season and is riding momentum after Sunday’s 65 in the final round in Houston.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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