By AJ Hammerle | July 19, 2026
With the trade deadline just weeks away, no storyline in baseball carries more weight than what the Detroit Tigers decide to do with Tarik Skubal. The back-to-back Cy Young winner is set to hit free agency after this season, and after a summer of speculation, Detroit's front office is running out of time to make up its mind. So should the Tigers actually pull the trigger, and if they do, where does Skubal end up? Let's break it down.
The Case to Trade Him
The math here isn't complicated. Skubal will be a free agent this winter, and after Detroit passed on locking him up long-term last offseason when his value was arguably at its highest, the Tigers are staring down the very real possibility of losing him for nothing more than a compensatory draft pick.
Detroit currently sits at 44-52, and while a recent surge has kept them within shouting distance of a wild card spot, an anonymous NL executive put the Tigers' playoff odds at somewhere around 20-25 percent. That's a real chance, but it's not the kind of number that typically stops a rebuilding front office from cashing in a rental, especially one as valuable as Skubal. As one executive put it, Detroit will get significantly more back at the deadline than a qualifying-offer pick would ever provide.
Skubal wouldn't be the only trade chip either. Casey Mize, Kyle Finnegan, Kenley Jansen, and Gleyber Torres are all impending free agents or moveable pieces who could net the Tigers a substantial return if Detroit decides to fully sell rather than take a half-measure.
The Case to Keep Him
On the other hand, this Tigers team has looked like a completely different group since the calendar flipped to June. Detroit has gone 19-12 since June 1, the best record in the American League over that stretch, and they've climbed back to just a handful of games out of both the division race and a wild card spot heading into the season's second half.
There's also the matter of what Detroit already gave up to compete this year. The front office signed Framber Valdez over the winter and clearly built this roster with a 2026 championship push in mind. Trading Skubal now would be an admission that plan failed, and it would also mean gutting the very rotation that's supposed to be carrying Detroit's postseason hopes.
There's a sentimental element here too. Skubal has become the face of the organization, and fans have made abundantly clear how badly they want him to stay, flooding his social media with pleas to remain in Detroit after rumors intensified. That kind of goodwill matters for a franchise trying to build stability after years of instability.
Where the Asking Price Complicates Things
Even if Detroit wants to sell, it might not be as easy as it sounds. Rival executives have suggested Skubal's recent elbow surgery, which cost him roughly a month of the season, has made some teams hesitant to meet Detroit's price. The Tigers are reportedly seeking an enormous package of MLB-ready bats, prospects, and pitching, and so far, no team has been willing to pay it.
The Landing Spots
If the Tigers do decide to move him, the Los Angeles Dodgers have emerged as the team most frequently connected to Skubal. According to insider Jeff Passan, if any team is going to go get Skubal, it's the Dodgers, and Los Angeles has both the farm system and the championship urgency to make a blockbuster deal happen.
The San Diego Padres have also been mentioned as a suitor, a team that has made a habit of pushing all its chips to the middle of the table at the deadline in pursuit of a title. Any club chasing a World Series this October would have obvious interest in adding the best pitcher in baseball to its rotation, and expect several more contenders to at least kick the tires before August 3.
Now What?
Ultimately, this decision comes down to how the next few weeks play out. Detroit's remaining schedule is favorable, and if the Tigers can string together more wins against a slate that includes just one current postseason team, it may be enough to convince the front office to stay the course and buy rather than sell.
But if Detroit stumbles even slightly, the pressure to capitalize on Skubal's expiring value will become impossible to ignore. As it stands, the belief around the league is that the Tigers would rather hold out as long as possible and see if a truly great offer materializes, rather than actively shop their ace. Whether that patience turns into a franchise-altering mistake or a well-timed bet on a playoff run is a question Detroit has less than a month to answer.
AJ Hammerle is a freelance MLB journalist covering the Detroit Tigers, Major League Baseball trade deadlines, and the business of player movement.