CLEVELAND, Ohio — There are a number of ways to do quarterback rankings. Usually, it’s based off the eye test, or how many team wins their play led to.
We’ll do things a little differently this time around.
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We are going to rank the top 32 NFL starting quarterbacks based off percentage of bad throws.
Every pass isn’t crisp.For every handful of on-target attempts, there is an off-target attempt.
We’ll rank quarterbacks using data from Pro Football Reference, which displays the percentage of poor throws, while excluding spikes and throwaways.
Note: Quarterbacks must have either started half or more of their team’s games through Week 13, or they’re the current starter, and are likely to remain the starter going forward.
QB rankings by bad-target %
J.J. McCarthy
It has been a tough season for McCarthy.
Injury-riddled, lack of wins, and the worst percentage for bad-target passes (24.4%), per Pro Football Reference.
Despite only playing six games, McCarthy’s lack of on-target passes has shown itself in various forms.
From tying for fourth in interceptions (10) to the worst quarterback rating among quarterbacks in the rankings above (24.4).
Daniel Jones
People are still trying to figure out if the credit of Daniel Jones’ rejuvenated season pertains to his work ethic or the Colts’ system in place.
It’s subjective. But the one area Jones definitely holds his own in is within his efficient passing.
Jones currently ranks fourth in lowest bad-target passing rate (12.1%), per Pro Football Reference.
Since entering the NFL in 2019, Jones’ current rate is on track to be his career-best.
His tendency for giveaways in the past stemmed from a higher rate of off-target passes, which contributed to his 22 combined interceptions in his first two years in the league.
Jones put the work in to better his efficiency on passes and it’s led to ranking eighth in completion percentage (67.9%), fifth in passing yards (3,041), and tying for seventh in touchdowns (19).
Spencer Rattler
Some outsiders were surprised when Spencer Rattler beat Tyler Shough, New Orleans’ 40th overall pick, for the starting job.
It’s understandable. The then-rookie Rattler struggled and hadn’t even won a game as a starter.
Yet, there were components that Rattler improved in.
And despite losing the starting job going into Week 9, Rattler still holds the second spot for lowest bad-target percentage (11.0%).
It’s actually a big jump from his rookie year rate of 18.2%, per Pro Football Reference.
And if anything, it’s overlapped in a couple other areas.
Such as his completion percentage jumping from 57.0% his rookie year to a present-day rate of 68.0%, which is seventh among all quarterbacks.
His rookie year, he averaged 2.79 seconds in the pocket. This year, Rattler has the seventh fastest time to throw (2.66 seconds), per Pro Football Focus.
Rattler’s bad-target percentage decreased because of the tangibles he wasn’t perfecting. And though he still has work to do, Rattler’s visibly made progress.
Geno Smith
Analytics can be funny sometimes.
Despite Geno Smith tying for first in interceptions (14), his bad-target percentage of throws is the lowest among all quarterbacks (10.5%).
The interceptions would usually paint a picture of a quarterback making wild throws and just giving it to the other team.
Furthermore, Smith ranks 20th in passing yards (211.0), 31st in completed air yards (4.1) and 32nd in quarterback rating (30.8).
Yet, the Las Vegas quarterback actually holds a higher on-target rate than some might expect.
His passes, per the data, are on point to his target more times than not.
In fact, Smith’s 77.9% on-target percentage is seventh among all quarterbacks, per Pro Football Reference.
While his 10.5% bad-target rate is currently his second-lowest rate through a full season, with his first coming last year at 10.4%.
So if anything, when Smith’s pass is not on-target, it’s most likely an interception.
That’s a dangerous dilemma for a quarterback. No middle ground, just two sides of a coin and nothing in between.
That is more than likely what’s contributed to the Raiders entering Week 14 one of four teams with two or fewer wins.