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Grade: B+
The overall record is great. It is one of the best in the NHL. They also got off to the best 16-game start in NHL history by going 15-1-0 to open the season.
That is all fantastic.
There was also an element of luck and some smoke-and-mirrors to that start, and they are starting to see some regression over the past few weeks.
When they were winning games at a record pace at the start the big question was a matter of sustainability. The success was driven by an outstanding, MVP-level goaltending performance from Connor Hellebuyck and a team full of players that were shooting at outrageously high shooting percentages. Their underlying numbers and possession metrics have consistently been below average for the season, including their 48 percent expected goals share.
Hellebuyck is going to be great—because he always is—but the shooting percentages were probably due to regress at some point. They have, and the wins have become less frequent.